The US Census Bureau thread

[M II A II R II K]

The Interdependence of Land Use and Transportation


February 5th, 2011

By Yonah Freemark



Read More: http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/2...ransportation/

Virginia 2010 Census: http://2010.census.gov/news/releases...cb11-cn16.html

Northern Virginia’s growth patterns demonstrate the degree to which transit can play an essential role in spurring inner-city growth. There is little need for data to demonstrate just how important the Washington Metrorail system has been for Arlington, Virginia’s growth over the past few decades. Visit anywhere along the Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor or in Crystal City — the two areas best served by Metro — and you’ll see dozens of new residential and office buildings lining the street.

But new information from Census 2010 provides empirical confirmation of the significance of land use planning around Metro stations in influencing the growth of Arlington and other places in Northern Virginia. Over the last ten years, Arlington County’s growth has been overwhelmingly concentrated along the Metro corridors, as has growth in Alexandria and some parts of Fairfax County. The densification of these areas is effectively extending the inner-city core of the Washington, D.C. region and substituting sprawling development in the exurbs with dense construction. This represents a change in trends compared to the period between 1990 and 2000.

The areas of Northern Virginia that saw the greatest percentage growth between 2000 and 2010 were all clustered around Metro stations — in Arlington along the Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor (Orange Line) and in Crystal City (Yellow and Blue Lines); in Alexandria near Van Dorn Street Station (Blue Line) and Eisenhower Avenue (Yellow Line); and in Fairfax County near Vienna/Fairfax Station (Orange Line). As other areas of close-in Virginia have been fully developed, these station area zones have densified through the coordinated planning decisions of city officials, the availability of rail rapid transit, funds from developers, and a clear interest of a large portion of the population to inhabit the new buildings.

In the case of the Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor, the Census Blocks within closest proximity of the five Metro stations along the Orange Line absorbed more than 70% of Arlington County’s growth, increasing by 12,816 people compared to Arlington’s expansion by 18,174 people towards a total population of 207,627. These 1.47 square miles arrayed linearly — a small percentage of Arlington’s 26 square miles — now represent more than 17% of the county’s population, compared to about 12% in 2000.

.....

What effect has this localized growth had on the face of the region in general? Let’s compare Arlington to an exurban locale that has been recently developed.

[ChiSoxRox]

The Maryland files do not appear to be on the FTP site yet, but the press release states that the city of Baltimore is at 620,961, a decrease of 4.6%.

Several other states are due out tomorrow, and next week we get two biggies: Illinois and Texas.

[BevoLJ]

Originally Posted by Dralcoffin

Several other states are due out tomorrow, and next week we get two biggies: Illinois and Texas.

Very exciting! I had just been assuming that the big ones would take longer and be last.

[pico44]

Originally Posted by Dralcoffin

The Maryland files do not appear to be on the FTP site yet, but the press release states that the city of Baltimore is at 620,961, a decrease of 4.6%.

Several other states are due out tomorrow, and next week we get two biggies: Illinois and Texas.

Oooooh this is gonna be fun. By my estimation one of three things will happen. Curious to see how it plays out

[bnk]

Originally Posted by pico44

Oooooh this is gonna be fun. By my estimation one of three things will happen. Curious to see how it plays out

Hay

Pray tell.

I would venture for Illinois that the collar counties grew enough to increase the Chicagoland MSA. Chicago has lost blacks to the southern part of the USA and southern Cook county [ remember the elimination of the projects, which is a good thing really ] and the out flux did not match the numbers of young and empty nesters that have moved into the new condos in LSE and others...

I suspect Chicago city limits will lose around 70-80 K Cook County will lose around 50 K but the rest of the growth in Illinois will be in the collar counties sans around -100K down state. Some cities down state have really taken it in the chin for some time now. One example is Decator. The flint mi of Illinois.

The empty towns of the far central west and the towns south of
Springfied continue to empty much like Iowa and the rest of the Empty quarter of the USA, see rural NE, MN, ....

Those little towns simpley cannot grow and we should expect population loss in towns and cities in Illinois outside the Chicagoland region to follow this path. There are no real educated jobs for those with higher degrees. Either they live in the Chicagoland area for new jobs, or the midwest or other areas of the country. But if you are born and raised [and later educated at a higher university level ] in central or anywhere really there are
no new jobs for you. So some states will depopulate their rural areas and there is little us or any other state that can stem that flow of brain drain that is moving to the larger job generators of the country, which luckily are in large to massive metro areas.

[JDRCRASH]

I know this kind of talk is annoying, but:

I hope to see LA above 4 Million, because if it isn't, then I have to believe something is wrong here.

[urbanactivist]

Originally Posted by JDRCRASH

I know this kind of talk is annoying, but:

I hope to see LA above 4 Million, because if it isn't, then I have to believe something is wrong here.

Even if it's not the actual population is well in excess of 4mil due the influx of undocumented immigrants.

[urbanactivist]

Wow I'm quite surprised to see that Shreveport actually lost residents!! Even with the massive growth of the casino industry and an assumed influx of Katrina evacuees!! Very interesting.

[MolsonExport]

Congratulations, USA. You are only a billion people behind China.

[photoLith]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Congratulations, USA. You are only a billion people behind China.

Holy crap, could you imagine if America had 1.3 billion people? It would be endless cookie cutter housing tracts and wal marts from sea to shining sea, it would be terrible Oh wait...

Anyways, Im anxious to see how Little Rock did population wise and to see how gentrification effected or affected some of the hoods of North Little Rock and south Little Rock around Central High School.

Remember those maps that guy did on flickr that had ethnicity mapped out by dots in pretty much every major city in the US? I wish I could find the thread that had those maps in it but hopefully that same guy does a 2010 version, to see how white cities have gotten and how black and latino populations have shifted in 10 years.

[ChiSoxRox]

For Iowa, I'm very curious about a couple things:

1. How did the floods of '08 affect Cedar Rapids' population? Did the displaced stay in CR or move elsewhere?

2. Is the rapid growth in Johnson County almost entirely in Coralville and North Liberty or has Iowa City proper managed to snag some of the growth?

3. Will Des Moines gain or lose in the city limits?

[bnk]

Originally Posted by Dralcoffin

For Iowa, I'm very curious about a couple things:

1. How did the floods of '08 affect Cedar Rapids' population? Did the displaced stay in CR or move elsewhere?

2. Is the rapid growth in Johnson County almost entirely in Coralville and North Liberty or has Iowa City proper managed to snag some of the growth?

3. Will Des Moines gain or lose in the city limits?

Just to let you know Iowa is one of the oldest states when it comes to population.

Yes they have great HS's and upper education but....


Um reading the Crain’s Chicago Business that I cannot link to because they threatened a lawsuit years ago state that Iowa in the next 10-20 years will lose population due to the fact that it is a state that has one of the largest segment of population over 65. There are like 9/per year people that will exceed the age of 65 living in Iowa vs. very newborn every year.

Aha screw Cran's here is a map image.... http://www.chicagobusiness.com/artic...#axzz1DCp267qH

Iowa in the next 20 years could actually lose population that they gained in the last 20 years because of the graying of the USA.


Iowa worked hard to break the 3 M mark. In ten to 20 years there population would look like it was in the 1930's-40's for not fault of their own.

. The simple point is is that Iowa like other advanced countries cannot replace the 2.28 babies per family born every year to replace those that have left the state for greener grass and any immigrents needed are not enough to offset the losses that will be seen in the future.


But Hey things are not all that bad if you live in Iowa, Japan has lived with a negative growth rate for almost a generation,Even China will have to deal with in the next 20-40 years due to their one child policy, the EU has for decades....


Less cost on infrastructure and more monies put in to the great education system that Iowa is famous for.... So there is no reason to be worried about long term future trends in population.

Des Moines, Iowa City, CR and the Quad will be just fine in the next long term outlook IMO.







I would not fret it though. Iowa has good schools and Universities that help the state out for the time that they are there but clearly they move back to the cities of their origin after their degree. Both Iowa City and Des Moines markets are saturated with medical professionals that have to leave the state post graduation because of the small population base and competition from the graduation pool that pours into the state from, esp. Illinois because the Illinois state schools do not have the structural capacity to handle all of the new HS grads. They have to go somewhere and well they go to Iowa, Wisc, IN, MI... you get my drift..



Iowa is cool I lived in Des Moines for 5.5 years but it is not a place to make money if you are a professional graduate in the health sector.






On a side note based on that Crain's article it will be at least 3 years before new housing construction re establish itself in these parts....

All of the foreclosures will keep the average home price down for the next 2.5 years and those that work in the construction industry I am empathic for your plight.

Good thing that Obama and congress extended unemployment before the 2010 general elections, otherwise 3 out of 4 union plumbers in my close family could not pay their mortgage and if the GoP got what they really want then the foreclosures would quadruple and the general economy, and the housing industry would not balance until 5-10 years which is exactly what they want.


The right wants Obama and by extension the USA to fail to try to wrest the POTUS from the Dems.

Frankly I truly believe that Obama and Chicagoland will rule the Union that is the USA for the next 5.5 years.... Tea strings abort and deny all you want but this is a prediction I am making now....


See yall southerners in 2016. Ps reading the map the national average was 0.4.

Illinois came in at 0.9, not to bad when you consider Ohio that is in a factor of Ohio=4.3 and the insane number out of Iowa that is at the bottom 50 states..

7.9

[JDRCRASH]

Originally Posted by photolitherland

Holy crap, could you imagine if America had 1.3 billion people? It would be endless cookie cutter housing tracts and wal marts from sea to shining sea, it would be terrible Oh wait...

On, the bright side, we'd have a WHOLE lot more urban Wal-Marts.

[Okstate]

Congratulations, CANADA. You are collectively almost the size of Tokyo.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Okstate

Congratulations, CANADA. You are collectively almost the size of Tokyo.

Indeed. So much spare space, even if most is frozen half the year or more.

[LMich]

Something seems fishy, here. The Census, which hadn't at all sugar-coated Gary's decline with its estimates, has the city 15,000 off its own 2009 estimate...

Rusted out: Clay says city has ‘many, many, many more people’

By Jon Seidel [email protected] Feb 11, 2011 02:05AM

Gary’s population has slipped below that of Hammond, according to U.S. Census data released Thursday, with the Steel City losing 22 percent of its citizens in the past 10 years.

Gary’s 2010 total population was 80,294, according to the state’s Legislative Services Agency. Hammond, meanwhile, had a total population of 80,830. That’s 536 more residents than Gary.

The Gary numbers reflect a 22 percent population loss since the 2000 Census, when its total population was 102,746. Hammond, meanwhile, lost just 2.6 percent of its total population since 2000, when its number was 83,048.

Gary Mayor Rudy Clay said he will appeal the results of the 2010 census.

“We really worked tenaciously to try to get people to fill out the forms,” Clay said. “Those numbers may be on paper, but those are not the real numbers.

“In reality Gary has many, many, many more people than that,” Clay said.

State Rep. Charlie Brown, a Gary resident, called the numbers “hard to believe.”

“In fact, it’s impossible to believe,” Brown said.

...

Indianapolis grew 4.8 percent to 829,718 residents. Fort Wayne saw the largest growth among the five most populous cities as it jumped 23.3 percent to 253,691 residents.

...

I wonder what the participation rate was for Gary? If Gary really lost nearly a full quarter of its population over the decade, it doesn't bode well for other hard-core rustbelt towns with populations still left to be released (i.e. Youngstown, Flint, etc...)

[lawfin]

^^I wouldn't extrapolate too much from Gary's mis-fortune.....even amongst shit-holes....it is a shit-hole of shit-holes

[pesto]

Originally Posted by lawfin

^^I wouldn't extrapolate too much from Gary's mis-fortune.....even amongst shit-holes....it is a shit-hole of shit-holes

There must be a nicer way of expressing this.

[SD_Phil]

Should be exciting to see Texas' results. I have a question for Texas forumers though:

We care about the census for two reasons right? 1) We're interested and invested in sustainable growth for the nation so some set of total population numbers (%5-10) would be good AND 2) we care about politics and we want to know about reapportioning of house seats.

So here's my question: how has a population increase affected Texas politically? Is it becoming more liberal (as other southwestern states with increasing populations are trending), is it holding basically stable, or is the increase coming mostly from conservatives?

[jtk1519]

Originally Posted by SD_Phil

Should be exciting to see Texas' results. I have a question for Texas forumers though:

We care about the census for two reasons right? 1) We're interested and invested in sustainable growth for the nation so some set of total population numbers (%5-10) would be good AND 2) we care about politics and we want to know about reapportioning of house seats.

So here's my question: how has a population increase affected Texas politically? Is it becoming more liberal (as other southwestern states with increasing populations are trending), is it holding basically stable, or is the increase coming mostly from conservatives?

The state is becoming more conservative, but less Republican in many ways. The only true liberal spots are the cities of Dallas, Houston and Austin and yes they are all liberal though not always the same kind of liberal. The suburbs are very conservative though. But while the liberal areas are pretty contained and not growing as fast as the rest of the state, the conservative Democrat bases are growing largely because of the Hispanic vote.

Spend some time in San Antonio, on the border, El Paso, etc. These places epitomize the term "blue dog". Pretty conservative (especially on fiscal and social issues), but tend to vote Democrat because immigration, labor law issues, etc. But these are votes that could easily go Republican (as they largely did for Bush 43) so they are by no means liberal.

I think Texas is becoming more centrist than perhaps most states. Dallas and maybe Houston are trending more liberal (maybe Austin too, but I think less so than Dallas and Houston) and some areas like Collin County in the Northern part of the Metroplex and maybe Fort Worth are trending more to the right, but most of the state is fairly moderate and can be swayed Democrat or Republican with the right candidate but tend to go Republican because the Democrat party can't field anybody in statewide elections that is worth a damn and the national Democrat party is too far to the left right now.