The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by whatnext

It’s almost like you think VW will actually build that battery plant. Cute.

If you are talking about St Thomas, it's not a rumour, the foundation is being poured as we speak. This was the fastest start to construction after an announcement I have ever seen. Ford and Trudeau were downtown making the announcement and the heavy machinery was out in the field.

[SpongeG]

Hyundai and GM to work together on developing new cars

By Juliana Liu, CNN
Thu September 12, 2024

Hong Kong
CNN
—
Hyundai and General Motors (GM) have agreed to look for ways to work together on developing new vehicles, supply chains and technologies in an effort to cut costs and move more quickly.

Global carmakers are under intense pressure to come up with new electric vehicle (EV) and battery technology because they face vehicle emissions regulations around the world. Those research and development efforts could cost tens of billions of dollars.

They’re also facing an onslaught of potential competition from Chinese automakers, particularly EV producers, trying to export their lower-cost models overseas in order to escape a huge oversupply problem at home.

South Korea’s Hyundai and America’s GM (GM) said on Thursday they would collaborate on joint product development, manufacturing and future clean energy technologies. They plan to work together on internal combustion, clean-energy, electric and hydrogen vehicles.

...

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/12/cars/...hnk/index.html

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

It’s almost like you think VW will actually build that battery plant. Cute.

It's almost like you have no clue what's happening in Southwestern Ontario cause you don't live anywhere close.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

If you are talking about St Thomas, it's not a rumour, the foundation is being poured as we speak. This was the fastest start to construction after an announcement I have ever seen. Ford and Trudeau were downtown making the announcement and the heavy machinery was out in the field.

Barring any hiccups, they are on track for 2027 opening, which is incredible for a megaproject of this size. I guess it's big for Canada, but maybe not for major battery OEMs.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

If you are talking about St Thomas, it's not a rumour, the foundation is being poured as we speak. This was the fastest start to construction after an announcement I have ever seen. Ford and Trudeau were downtown making the announcement and the heavy machinery was out in the field.

• Video Link

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

• Video Link

What does this have to do with your ignorance about the plant under construction? Also, VW going under is about as likely as Ford going under. Less so. Because VW is more important to Germany than Ford is to America.

You're also proving our point of why these companies need to be subsidized.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

If you are talking about St Thomas, it's not a rumour, the foundation is being poured as we speak. This was the fastest start to construction after an announcement I have ever seen. Ford and Trudeau were downtown making the announcement and the heavy machinery was out in the field.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Barring any hiccups, they are on track for 2027 opening, which is incredible for a megaproject of this size. I guess it's big for Canada, but maybe not for major battery OEMs.

They might be pouring, and that's a very good sign, everything else is on hold. We were expecting the steel contract to be awarded in the spring, now it's a "maybe" for fall.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

The subsidies are there to help our industry. Because they underinvested for so long.

I think the tarriffs on Chinese imports and subsidies of our legacy OEMs should have an expiry date. For the sake of argument, let's say 2030. Our legacy OEMs should have 6 years to get their asses in gear; it's like a headstart to a race against a superior opponent. But you still have to run.

If we don't allow these to sunset, I fear our legacy OEMs will just be protected against their inferior products and we'll have an embarrassingly low EV penetration rate well into the future.

Or the Chinese will advance to the point where they manage to sell a profitable EV in North America that undercuts the price point of their Western competitors, even with a 100% tarriff slapped on them. Then what are we going to do? Slap a 200% tarriff on Chinese EVs?

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I think the tarriffs on Chinese imports and subsidies of our legacy OEMs should have an expiry date. For the sake of argument, let's say 2030. Our legacy OEMs should have 6 years to get their asses in gear; it's like a headstart to a race against a superior opponent. But you still have to run.

If we don't allow these to sunset, I fear our legacy OEMs will just be protected against their inferior products and we'll have an embarrassingly low EV penetration rate well into the future.

Or the Chinese will advance to the point where they manage to sell a profitable EV in North America that undercuts the price point of their Western competitors, even with a 100% tarriff slapped on them. Then what are we going to do? Slap a 200% tarriff on Chinese EVs?

Well with Milk and cheese we do have a 200% tarriff. Foreign imports would very much be competitive with only a 100% tarriff.

As an aside why do people in Teslas drive so slow on the highway? Is it to save range or are they using autopilot so easier to stick in the right lane?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by jonny24

They might be pouring, and that's a very good sign, everything else is on hold. We were expecting the steel contract to be awarded in the spring, now it's a "maybe" for fall.

It's normal. They will have to review and realign both opening and launch capacity given what's happening in Germany. And I suspect there might even be a view to politics in the US, before they decide on final capacity.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I think the tarriffs on Chinese imports and subsidies of our legacy OEMs should have an expiry date. For the sake of argument, let's say 2030. Our legacy OEMs should have 6 years to get their asses in gear; it's like a headstart to a race against a superior opponent. But you still have to run.

If we don't allow these to sunset, I fear our legacy OEMs will just be protected against their inferior products and we'll have an embarrassingly low EV penetration rate well into the future.

Or the Chinese will advance to the point where they manage to sell a profitable EV in North America that undercuts the price point of their Western competitors, even with a 100% tarriff slapped on them. Then what are we going to do? Slap a 200% tarriff on Chinese EVs?

No need for deadlines. The OEMs are already shitting themselves watching Chinese OEMs at home (till 2022 basically the 2nd or 3rd most profitable market for most legacy Western and Asian OEMs). Now they are watching some of those guys build plants in Europe while share in China erodes and these brands are expanding into lots of the same developing markets that were supposed to replace China.

You'll notice that VW, BMW, etc all came out against tariffs in Europe. Look at their sales in China. Those companies will be in trouble globally if sales in China went to zero.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Just another reminder what kind of person Tesla buyers support. This can't just be shrugged off:

The US Secret Service says it is "aware" of a social media post by Elon Musk in which he said that "no one is even trying" to assassinate President Joe Biden or Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Mr Musk has since deleted the post and said it was intended as a joke....

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c74882jq39vo

Too late I already shrugged it off.

[rdaner]

I saw in a Toronto paper today that Canadian carbon emissions are continuing to trend down and I wonder if the appearance of EVs is contributing to that?

[casper]

Originally Posted by rdaner

I saw in a Toronto paper today that Canadian carbon emissions are continuing to trend down and I wonder if the appearance of EVs is contributing to that?

Every little bit helps. We are in this together and need to all do our part.

That said, large industrial users are the major contributors and with the help of the carbon tax and other measures they are aggressively moving as well.

We should not discount the contribution consumers are making. It is important and should be celebrated and encouraged.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Just another reminder what kind of person Tesla buyers support. This can't just be shrugged off:

The US Secret Service says it is "aware" of a social media post by Elon Musk in which he said that "no one is even trying" to assassinate President Joe Biden or Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Mr Musk has since deleted the post and said it was intended as a joke....

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c74882jq39vo

And what kind of person is that?

Crazies gonna be crazy, IMO.

[Truenorth00]

What our Western press never talks about: legacy OEMs are in trouble globally largely because they are in trouble in the Chinese market. And they are largely in trouble there because they failed to electrify. Toyota is barely holding on there because of its portfolio of hybrids. If only these companies had taken a decade and a half of record profits in China and put it towards electrification. Instead, they are seeing sales halved between 2017 and 2024. Incredible incompetence from their executives. And next up, will be all the markets which don't have a dog in this fight and won't protect legacy OEMs.

The China trend is not their friend.

Nissan, GM, VW and others are tanking hard in China.

"Dunne predicts that most of the world’s biggest car companies will depart the Chinese market within the next five years."

“If you stay in the joint venture and make no changes, your exit is inevitable,”

Via @thewirechina: The China Cliff For Foreign Carmakers

https://www.thewirechina.com/2024/09...ling-in-china/



BYD about same size as Ford. Geely closing in on Honda.

https://x.com/dunne_insights/status/...OPkcSIGKw&s=19

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

What our Western press never talks about: legacy OEMs are in trouble globally largely because they are in trouble in the Chinese market. And they are largely in trouble there because they failed to electrify. Toyota is barely holding on there because of its portfolio of hybrids. If only these companies had taken a decade and a half of record profits in China and put it towards electrification. Instead, they are seeing sales halved between 2017 and 2024. Incredible incompetence from their executives. And next up, will be all the markets which don't have a dog in this fight and won't protect legacy OEMs.

Yep. They never should have been foolish enough to believe China wouldn't pull the rug out from them once the joint ventures had siphoned off the knowledge they could get from them.

Was watching a segment showing how poor plant usage was in China and in much of North America. The execption: EV holdouts Toyota and Honda.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Yep. They never should have been foolish enough to believe China wouldn't pull the rug out from them once the joint ventures had siphoned off the knowledge they could get from them.

Was watching a segment showing how poor plant usage was in China and in much of North America. The execption: EV holdouts Toyota and Honda.

Chinese car companies are way ahead of legacy vehicle manufacturers in Europe, North America, and Japan in terms of battery and charging technology. That's the technology that really matters. Only Tesla comes close, and they're not innovating as fast as Chinese manufacturers, partly because they take obscure side paths like the Cyber truck, rather than concentrating on developing less expensive models, or ramping up production of the semi truck.

"In the quarter ended June 30, income from Toyota’s Chinese joint ventures plummeted 73% compared with a year earlier, according to financial statements." [Source]

"Honda reportedly is cutting jobs as it suspended production at three Chinese plants.

Citing local media reports, Bloomberg said the automaker offered redundancy packages to 2,000 workers at its joint venture with Chinese state owned Dongfeng Motor. The staff optimisation was part of a strategy to ensure sustainable operations and speed up its transition to electric vehicles, Dongfeng Honda reportedly said in a statement on social media.

Production at three plants had been suspended for about two weeks from Aug 26 to reduce inventory, Honda told Bloomberg in an emailed statement.

But the automaker declined to comment further on the job cuts and Dongfeng didn’t immediately respond to Bloomberg requests for comment.

Honda’s China sales plummeted 21.48% in the first half of 2024, the report noted, adding the automaker slashed the number of workers at another joint venture with Guangzhou Automobile earlier this year."
[Source]

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Chinese car companies are way ahead of legacy vehicle manufacturers in Europe, North America, and Japan in terms of battery and charging technology. That's the technology that really matters. Only Tesla comes close, and they're not innovating as fast as Chinese manufacturers, partly because they take obscure side paths like the Cyber truck, rather than concentrating on developing less expensive models, or ramping up production of the semi truck.

"In the quarter ended June 30, income from Toyota’s Chinese joint ventures plummeted 73% compared with a year earlier, according to financial statements." [Source]

"Honda reportedly is cutting jobs as it suspended production at three Chinese plants.

Citing local media reports, Bloomberg said the automaker offered redundancy packages to 2,000 workers at its joint venture with Chinese state owned Dongfeng Motor. The staff optimisation was part of a strategy to ensure sustainable operations and speed up its transition to electric vehicles, Dongfeng Honda reportedly said in a statement on social media.

Production at three plants had been suspended for about two weeks from Aug 26 to reduce inventory, Honda told Bloomberg in an emailed statement.

But the automaker declined to comment further on the job cuts and Dongfeng didn’t immediately respond to Bloomberg requests for comment.

Honda’s China sales plummeted 21.48% in the first half of 2024, the report noted, adding the automaker slashed the number of workers at another joint venture with Guangzhou Automobile earlier this year."
[Source]

Honda and Toyota operations in North America are doing just fine. Decoupling will make Chinese cars irrelevant in the West.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Honda and Toyota operations in North America are doing just fine. Decoupling will make Chinese cars irrelevant in the West.

North America isn't 'the West', and it's not as important as it once was to global vehicle manufacturers. Honda still seem to be committed to full electrification of the brand, although they're starting from a long way back in comparison to other brands. Toyota isn't on the same page, and they have to move fast to remain relevant in the US or Canada, assuming the California requirements for 100% sales of EVs or PHEVs stays in effect. That's an eighth of US vehicle registrations. And Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Washington D.C. follow where California leads.

Meanwhile if Chinese vehicle manufacturers continue to innovate and expand production into Europe, Asia and Central and Southern America they could take a huge chunk out of legacy manufacturers markets, and profits.