Canada's Future

[casper]

Originally Posted by Build.It

Those are all solvable problems, and frankly just an excuse.

If the only reason that Canada doesn't have any large global powerhouse companies is because of our internal regulations, then it's obvious what needs to change.

I think it is the other way around. The reason Canada has some powerhouse companies is because of our internal policies.

Telus, the banks, Bombardier, SNC, etc. all have significant domestic and international operations. If it were not for protections they would all be branch operations of larger multi-nationals.

Lets face it, the US protects its corporations, Japan protects theirs.

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[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

We will finish "paying for" covid though, and likely quite soon, and economic prospects should pick up again. Canada ain't that bad. We'll be fine. We will continue to be poorer than the US, but that's not a new thing, we just had our judgement shifted on the matter in the 2010's when the US got routed by a massive recession which temporarily brought them down to Canada's level.

We have barely started paying for COVID. Until the extreme levels of household debt and the RE bubble unwinds itself to sustainable levels vis-a-vis the US in the 2010s after the GFC crash, there is plenty of dues (aka bad times) Canada still has to pay for the unprecedented COVID run-up of private household debt and property prices.

[Build.It]

Originally Posted by ericmacm

I agree, these problems are solvable but I don’t consider it realistic that we will solve them. Our political class largely doesn’t see a problem with the status quo in our business environment and I don’t think they care enough or are ambitious enough to change it.

I see what you're saying now. If we're talking about what's likely going to happen, then yes I agree these anti-foreign-competition policies are likely to stick around.

----

On a separate topic:

One thing I've been thinking about the last few days - our population grew by 7 million people in 10 years. Most of that growth came from Asia. That is going to have a profound longterm impact on our country as these people get settled in Canada. There are aspects of South Asian culture that are going to become mainstream in broader Canada as a result of the shear demographics. For example, we're already seeing Punjabi-Canadian musicians get mainstream success with Punjabi songs. This is a trend that will almost certainly continue in a lot different ways.

[Acajack]

Canadians tend to view demographic changes like water on the back of a duck but the reality is the country is going to be transformed in a significant profound way.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'm visiting BC for work this week. I'm in Richmond today. And it reminds me of California. But also Mississauga's Square One area. It's like Square One met San Francisco. I'm a fan of middle density Montreal. But I'll admit there's a certain allure to the kind of density I see here with lots of amenities but still a somewhat suburban feel despite the density.

I'm not a big fan of Richmond in a practical sense but it's an outer suburb by the airport. The SF and Montreal versions of that are much worse. Burnaby, Coquitlam, etc. are similar. They are not very lovely from an urbanism perspective but they allow a bunch of people to live in 6/10 areas instead of 2/10 areas, and it was never practical for those places to look like residential neighbourhoods from circa 1900.

Richmond also adds some interest to the metro area with its distinct businesses. Most North American postwar suburbs are nothing but housing and big box stores.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by someone123

I'm not a big fan of Richmond in a practical sense but it's an outer suburb by the airport. The SF and Montreal versions of that are much worse. Burnaby, Coquitlam, etc. are similar. They are not very lovely from an urbanism perspective but they allow a bunch of people to live in 6/10 areas instead of 2/10 areas, and it was never practical for those places to look like residential neighbourhoods from circa 1900.

Richmond also adds some interest to the metro area with its distinct businesses. Most North American postwar suburbs are nothing but housing and big box stores.

Richmond's core is IMO the best of Metro Van's post-war suburban town centres (ie. excluding Lonsdale and New West). It helps that it's mostly mid-rise in form, which spreads things out a bit and makes for a more human scale than the other's tower clusters which can feel more like glorified masterplanned TODs. The demographics also help, as the Chinese dining culture lends itself particularly well to a vibrant street culture.

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Y'all are so negative.

I wouldn't say Canada's economic doldrums post-COVID couldn't be predicted - it was pretty easy to understand that the economy would have to make up for years of little to no productivity through COVID. A big reason the US has faired better is simply because their economy didn't shut down to the same extent.

We will finish "paying for" covid though, and likely quite soon, and economic prospects should pick up again. Canada ain't that bad. We'll be fine. We will continue to be poorer than the US, but that's not a new thing, we just had our judgement shifted on the matter in the 2010's when the US got routed by a massive recession which temporarily brought them down to Canada's level.

Aside from historical precedent, just curious what you're optimistic about? I haven't seen any particularly positive indicators (particularly relative to most peer nations). And while it's likely that our economy will heat up at some point (as it inevitably always does), "continuing to be poorer than the US" is a bit of an understatement - it's worth noting that we're poorer now in relation to the US than at any other time in the last 40 years.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Canadians tend to view demographic changes like water on the back of a duck but the reality is the country is going to be transformed in a significant profound way.

I think this is a very true statement. In fact I don't think you even need to say "going to" because it is already quite palpable.

[shreddog]

Like many of the posters here, I am not too positive about life in Canada over the next 10-20 years. To the point, I certainly don't see the overall Quality of Life improving, and see it failing for a significant share of the population.

A couple key fears:

Regardless of any short term changes in affordability, as early as 2030 (and definitely 2025) young, first time home buyers will only be able to buy a place due to funds from their parents. I think the days of a couple of recent uni grads independently buying a house before the age of 30 have passed us by.

Healthcare access and delivery will become a major issue. Demand is growing, we already spend close to 50% of tax revenue funding it, and service delivery is not getting better. With these factors, I also expect to see more boomers/gen-xers going to the US (or elsewhere) for health services to avoid the waits.

More "classification" of Canadian society, with the middle class shrinking and the upper classes becoming more unattainable if you're outside the real estate spectrum.

Less "Canada" in our politics. Over the next ten years I feel our politics will become more focused on externally drivers (US, Palestine, etc) than on what happens in Canada. As a small nation, we've always been influenced by decisions that happen elsewhere, but using the Gaza example, I think we will start to see more "internal" politics shaped by external actions, but not in a way that is specifically Canadian.

I also think our urban form will be slightly better from a density perspective, but much worse from a mobility perspective. We have not put any serious effort into improving our intra or inter city transport, and I think things will get much worse.

Given all this, I also am concerned about what immigration in the future will look like. Historically Canada was viewed as being one of the best possible places to immigrate to: affordable housing, big skies, safe, growth potential, etc. I think that as these indicators wane, less and less of the skilled immigrants will want to come to a country that is "cold, boring and almost empty". Since we still need immigration, does that mean will be bringing in those less able to contribute to building the future?

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

Richmond's core is IMO the best of Metro Van's post-war suburban town centres (ie. excluding Lonsdale and New West). It helps that it's mostly mid-rise in form, which spreads things out a bit and makes for a more human scale than the other's tower clusters which can feel more like glorified masterplanned TODs. The demographics also help, as the Chinese dining culture lends itself particularly well to a vibrant street culture.




Aside from historical precedent, just curious what you're optimistic about? I haven't seen any particularly positive indicators (particularly relative to most peer nations). And while it's likely that our economy will heat up at some point (as it inevitably always does), "continuing to be poorer than the US" is a bit of an understatement - it's worth noting that we're poorer now in relation to the US than at any other time in the last 40 years.

Not sure what this graph is about (what is "US Constant Dollars"?), but this is what I've seen before - we passed the US briefly in the early 2010's:



This is what I'm discussing in how we tend to go up and down, we are on a down cycle right now, we will go back up again at some point.

[Build.It]

Another thing I was thinking of: There are literally millions of young Canadians (under 40) who will never have children. If you want to get a picture of which Canadian values will get pushed to future generations, you have to look at the values of young Canadians who are actually having kids. Generally this means that quiet conservative values will get passed on and loud progressive values won't.

You also need to look at who is moving here - generally conservative-minded Asians who want to start families.

Like it or not, Canada is going to become more conservative, because that's ultimately who is going to still be around in 50 years as loud childless progressives will have died off by then.

I suspect I'm going to get flack for this post but whatever.

I'm also not that concerned about real estate in the medium term. Millennials and Zoomers are going to have high inequality within their own generations, but this will balance out again by the time Alphas hit their 20s.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Like many of the posters here, I am not too positive about life in Canada over the next 10-20 years. To the point, I certainly don't see the overall Quality of Life improving, and see it failing for a significant share of the population.

A couple key fears:

Regardless of any short term changes in affordability, as early as 2030 (and definitely 2025) young, first time home buyers will only be able to buy a place due to funds from their parents. I think the days of a couple of recent uni grads independently buying a house before the age of 30 have passed us by.

Healthcare access and delivery will become a major issue. Demand is growing, we already spend close to 50% of tax revenue funding it, and service delivery is not getting better. With these factors, I also expect to see more boomers/gen-xers going to the US (or elsewhere) for health services to avoid the waits.

More "classification" of Canadian society, with the middle class shrinking and the upper classes becoming more unattainable if you're outside the real estate spectrum.

Less "Canada" in our politics. Over the next ten years I feel our politics will become more focused on externally drivers (US, Palestine, etc) than on what happens in Canada. As a small nation, we've always been influenced by decisions that happen elsewhere, but using the Gaza example, I think we will start to see more "internal" politics shaped by external actions, but not in a way that is specifically Canadian.

I also think our urban form will be slightly better from a density perspective, but much worse from a mobility perspective. We have not put any serious effort into improving our intra or inter city transport, and I think things will get much worse.

Given all this, I also am concerned about what immigration in the future will look like. Historically Canada was viewed as being one of the best possible places to immigrate to: affordable housing, big skies, safe, growth potential, etc. I think that as these indicators wane, less and less of the skilled immigrants will want to come to a country that is "cold, boring and almost empty". Since we still need immigration, does that mean will be bringing in those less able to contribute to building the future?

At least some of these issues are due to the (ultimately temporary) situation that boomers have left the workforce but are still taking up valuable real estate and health dollars. It will be a hard two decades, but the population over 80 will start to go down in the 2040s.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Build.It

Another thing I was thinking of: There are literally millions of young Canadians (under 40) who will never have children. If you want to get a picture of which Canadian values will get pushed to future generations, you have to look at the values of young Canadians who are actually having kids. Generally this means that quiet conservative values will get passed on and loud progressive values won't.

You also need to look at who is moving here - generally conservative-minded Asians who want to start families.

Like it or not, Canada is going to become more conservative, because that's ultimately who is going to still be around in 50 years as loud childless progressives will have died off by then.

I suspect I'm going to get flack for this post but whatever.

I think you're absolutely right.

There are already signs of this. For example the protests against "Pride" activities and gender ideology in Ontario schools were far from exclusively made up of Euro-Christian Canadians. Quite the opposite in fact.

What's really ironic is that high immigration is a pet policy of the progressive left, but it's actually going to shift the country more the right.

[MolsonExport]

as loud childless progressives will have died off by then.

This sounds like something JD Vance would say.

Ah, the culture wars. Every single thread gets polluted with this crap.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Like many of the posters here, I am not too positive about life in Canada over the next 10-20 years. To the point, I certainly don't see the overall Quality of Life improving, and see it failing for a significant share of the population.

A couple key fears:

Regardless of any short term changes in affordability, as early as 2030 (and definitely 2025) young, first time home buyers will only be able to buy a place due to funds from their parents. I think the days of a couple of recent uni grads independently buying a house before the age of 30 have passed us by.

Healthcare access and delivery will become a major issue. Demand is growing, we already spend close to 50% of tax revenue funding it, and service delivery is not getting better. With these factors, I also expect to see more boomers/gen-xers going to the US (or elsewhere) for health services to avoid the waits.

More "classification" of Canadian society, with the middle class shrinking and the upper classes becoming more unattainable if you're outside the real estate spectrum.

Less "Canada" in our politics. Over the next ten years I feel our politics will become more focused on externally drivers (US, Palestine, etc) than on what happens in Canada. As a small nation, we've always been influenced by decisions that happen elsewhere, but using the Gaza example, I think we will start to see more "internal" politics shaped by external actions, but not in a way that is specifically Canadian.

I also think our urban form will be slightly better from a density perspective, but much worse from a mobility perspective. We have not put any serious effort into improving our intra or inter city transport, and I think things will get much worse.

Given all this, I also am concerned about what immigration in the future will look like. Historically Canada was viewed as being one of the best possible places to immigrate to: affordable housing, big skies, safe, growth potential, etc. I think that as these indicators wane, less and less of the skilled immigrants will want to come to a country that is "cold, boring and almost empty". Since we still need immigration, does that mean will be bringing in those less able to contribute to building the future?

This will also be controversial but there is also the definite possibility of more inter-ethnic strife if we fall on economic hard times. It's almost always easier for people to get along when there is enough prosperity to go around for everyone.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This will also be controversial but there is also the definite possibility of more inter-ethnic strife if we fall on economic hard times. It's almost always easier for people to get along when there is enough prosperity to go around for everyone.

It's hard to call it controversial when there's so many live examples across the world. Canada isn't protected by any exceptionalism bubble.

I don't think Canada (and Ontario especially) is in any position after 9 years of Justinian reign to claim that the UK riots couldn't possibly happen here.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

I don't think Canada (and Ontario especially) is in any position after 9 years of Justinian reign to claim that the UK riots couldn't possibly happen here.

And the Justinian plague will continue for another year yet.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Not sure what this graph is about (what is "US Constant Dollars"?), but this is what I've seen before - we passed the US briefly in the early 2010's:.

The early 2010s reflect a one-time reality that won't be replicated again, i.e. high global oil prices and low domestic US production.

Since then, Obama-Trump-Biden has developed the US into the world's biggest oil producer, so Canada can no longer get a relative uplift to GDP vis-a-vis the US with the oilsands.