Federal Government & Politics II

[theman23]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Very few people saw their rent increase $8400. People don't move every year.

So food is up 40%. Minimum wage has gone from $11 to $17.20 so that's more than a 50% increase. CCB went from $1500 (ish $1900 taxable) or per child to average of $7000. Rest of inflation is far below 40% so working poor familes are obviously better off though most of the gains were 2015-2017 when the biggest CCB boost happened and before inflation. A case of what have you done for me lately.

Your math is dubious.

Very few Canadians were earning minimum wage when it was set to $11, so a $6 bump was not something most people saw. As statcan reports, the number of min wage earners has basically doubled when minimum wage went up. These numbers go to 2018:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...019003-eng.htm


More proof of that is actually looking at the incomes of people by income quintiles. Over a 40 hour work week, a $6 minimum wage increase would amount to a nearly $12,000 annual increase in pay but in reality the lowest quintile have only seen their income go up $3000 since 2015. Even including the CCB, nearly the entirety of that bump has been eaten up by housing increases.

Not everyone moves all the time, but 2015 was a long time ago. Younger people and people in poverty are far more likely to move on a regular basis (or at least once in the last 9 years) and are far more likely to be paying market rates for rentals than a relatively wealthy person with tenure in a paid off house or rent controlled apartment.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by theman23

Not everyone moves all the time, but 2015 was a long time ago. Younger people and people in poverty are far more likely to move on a regular basis (or at least once in the last 9 years) and are far more likely to be paying market rates for rentals than a relatively wealthy person with tenure in a paid off house or rent controlled apartment.

To add, all dwellings in Ontario built since November 2018 are not rent controlled, and these post-2018 dwellings make up a sizable portion of Ontario's rental supply, especially in the GTA. So for these renters disproportionately impacting younger Canadians, they get their rent hiked and reset regardless of whether they move or stay put.

Also, recent decisions by various Landlord Tenant Boards have set precedents for landlords to hike rent to cover costs. Otherwise the landlord will go the renoviction route:

Tenant advocate decries ruling that let B.C. landlord hike rent 27% after interest rates rose
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/tenant-advocat...rose-1.7003267

[theman23]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

To add, all dwellings in Ontario built since November 2018 are not rent controlled, and these post-2018 dwellings make up a sizable portion of Ontario's rental supply, especially in the GTA. So for these renters disproportionately impacting younger Canadians, they get their rent hiked and reset regardless of whether they move or stay put.

Also, recent decisions by various Landlord Tenant Boards have set precedents for landlords to hike rent to cover costs. Otherwise the landlord will go the renoviction route:

Tenant advocate decries ruling that let B.C. landlord hike rent 27% after interest rates rose
https://bc.ctvnews.ca/tenant-advocat...rose-1.7003267

The majority of rentals being used by low income earners in Ontario were likely built before 2018 and the BC ruling hasn't really had time to have any ramifications beyond the single ruling. I think this is relatively minor compared to the effect of simply being forced to look for a place recently. Twenty something year olds for the most part are not in rent controlled apartments with prices locked in at 2015 rates. They likely moved to where they were recently and are paying closer to market rates, even if they are now rent controlled. If we rely on CPI to estimate housing costs, we significantly underestimate the cost of renting adequate housing since most of the data points are fixed but completely irrelevant to the situation that people find themselves in. This is what measures like the MDI can capture that income bases measures like MBM cannot.

Speaking to political motivation, its interesting that the Liberals have been silent on the mounting of data that poverty rates have been worsening under their tenure. Instead, they use bad data as way to obscure the problem and shirk their responsibility. I'll likely stay that way until the same data gets reported under a CPC government.

[ConundrumNL]

Originally Posted by theman23

Your math is dubious.

Very few Canadians were earning minimum wage when it was set to $11, so a $6 bump was not something most people saw. As statcan reports, the number of min wage earners has basically doubled when minimum wage went up.

That's interesting side affect of minimum wage increases that should get more attention. Most hourly waged people making above minimum are likely not getting a increase, so essentially more minimum wage positions are created with every increase. I figure most employers would stop giving them regular increases as well, they'd just get whatever the government mandates.

Wouldn't that make labour costs for a business cheaper overall or am I overthinking? Your pushing more and more workers into the minimum tier, where increases generally only happened when mandated and are lower then typical 'cost of living' increases.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by shreddog

I posted this in another thread that was exploring Federal-FN issues, but I think it also belongs here. I've been offline for a couple weeks, but couldn't believe it when I read about this .. WOW!!!

No reaction to this either here nor in the other thread.

Obviously this is another example of the atrocious vetting procedures at PMO, and maybe also that people simply don't take this stuff seriously anymore.

Surely Charles Adler's old views on Indigenous people are not shared by the Government of Canada. I don't believe that for a minute. And of course Adler himself has backtracked.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by theman23

Your math is dubious.

Very few Canadians were earning minimum wage when it was set to $11, so a $6 bump was not something most people saw. As statcan reports, the number of min wage earners has basically doubled when minimum wage went up. These numbers go to 2018:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...019003-eng.htm


More proof of that is actually looking at the incomes of people by income quintiles. Over a 40 hour work week, a $6 minimum wage increase would amount to a nearly $12,000 annual increase in pay but in reality the lowest quintile have only seen their income go up $3000 since 2015. Even including the CCB, nearly the entirety of that bump has been eaten up by housing increases.

Not everyone moves all the time, but 2015 was a long time ago. Younger people and people in poverty are far more likely to move on a regular basis (or at least once in the last 9 years) and are far more likely to be paying market rates for rentals than a relatively wealthy person with tenure in a paid off house or rent controlled apartment.

Some good points but a lot of the non minimum wage earners in 2015 or 2018 were making 50 cents or $1 more than minimum so have also seen substantial increaeses. In many cases they are now at minimum. 2022 they had some leverage but with the latest increases it is tougher. Also counter to my other point minimum wage is now flooded with TFWs and fake students so a lot of former minimum wage earners are struggling to find any work.

All that to say it's not only a good news story but there is certainly good news for poor familes. Even if all of the rest of us have to pay for it. My main point is to refute the weird idea that government spending just makes everyone worse off and nobody has benefitted.(Minimum wage is provincial of course)

[ssiguy]

About 10 pages back, I stated that there had been rumours about the Liberals & NDP pulling candidates out of ridings where one party hasn't got a hope to help the other one win by consolidating the ABC vote and hence take away a potential Conservative win of the riding and stopping a PP gov't. In Western Canada many of the ridings are battles between NDP & Tories while in Ontario it's usually a Liberal & Tory battle and similarly so in AC. It's not as much as a big issue in Quebec where the Liberals are only strong on The Island and Outaouais while battles outside those regions are BC & Tory so either party stepping out of the race would make little difference.

These were considered rumours but now are far more than that. LeDrew, in one of his 3 minute political interviews, has confirmed this. He just did an interview with Dan McTeague, a former LIBERAL MP before Trudeau took over the party, and he stated that this is both an open and frequent conversation in both Liberal & NDP ranks. Basically the idea of the ABC vote would become codified.........taking a page out of Macrons playbook to stop a LePen victory. Such an idea would be considered heresy for "Canada's Natural governing Party" but he stated that Trudeau, who he has a clear distain for, will do anything to stay in power.

[whatnext]

More empty promises from Junior today to reform Canada's scandal ridden immigration and TFW system. Meanwhile:

Migrant Workers Lured to Canada Are Being Scammed Out of Their Life Savings
Desperate for a chance at a new beginning, newcomers are paying tens of thousands of dollars for mainly low-level jobs
By Jay Zhao-Murray and Laura Dhillon Kane
August 14, 2024 at 2:00 PM PDT

High salaries, top-notch schools, beautiful scenery and low crime: the promise of a better life attracted over a million newcomers to Canada last year. But as idyllic as it may seem, a post-pandemic migration surge is revealing a dirty underbelly of the immigration system.

Fraud is running rampant in Canada’s temporary foreign worker program, another wrinkle in immigration debates playing out around the world as developed countries seek to bolster their labor forces without alienating the native-born population. In the US’s northern neighbor, critics have honed in on employers and consultants who illegally sell jobs to migrants desperate for an advantage in their quest for permanent residency. A patchwork of overwhelmed government agencies appears ill-equipped to crack down.

Navdeep Singh, a 39-year-old accountant in India, arrived in Canada through the program last year. He invested everything in his dream to move his family: he and his wife, a teacher, drained their savings and borrowed money from friends and relatives to scrape together more than $40,000.

The sum, which receipts show he paid to WWICS Group, an immigration consulting agency with offices in Ontario and in the Indian state of Punjab, landed Singh a cashier job at a cannabis shop in Edmonton, Alberta. He said he was fired within days without any real explanation. With no way to support himself, he returned to India, penniless and ashamed.

“I believe that my employer and WWICS have planned to fool me,” Singh wrote in December to the College of Immigration and Citizenship Consultants, a regulatory body meant to prevent abuse in the industry....

....While it’s impossible to precisely measure the total amount of money changing hands, immigration consultants, advocates, victims and government officials describe a thriving black market for temporary jobs. A government-commissioned investigation completed in May that wasn’t released to the public found a significant increase in fraud and abuse, with newcomers charged C$10,000 ($7,295) to C$180,000 for jobs, according to a summary viewed by Bloomberg News....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...?sref=x4rjnz06

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by Acajack

No reaction to this either here nor in the other thread.
...
And of course Adler himself has backtracked.

Has he?? I am not aware of him doing so (but could have missed it). I am aware that he has requested to meet with reps from AMC, but not only have the refused to do so, they continue to demand his senate appointment be revoked - Manitoba chiefs call for PM to rescind Charles Adler’s appointment to Senate

To my eyes, this is beyond amateur hour (and Harpers "boys in short pants"). While I agree that this has not previously been the LPC's messaging, the fact that they have been so silent on this, does make one wonder.

I could only imagine the noise on some "media outlets" if this appointment had been announced by Harper back in 2014!

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Has he?? I am not aware of him doing so (but could have missed it). I am aware that he has requested to meet with reps from AMC, but not only have the refused to do so, they continue to demand his senate appointment be revoked - Manitoba chiefs call for PM to rescind Charles Adler’s appointment to Senate

To my eyes, this is beyond amateur hour (and Harpers "boys in short pants"). While I agree that this has not previously been the LPC's messaging, the fact that they have been so silent on this, does make one wonder.

I could only imagine the noise on some "media outlets" if this appointment had been announced by Harper back in 2014!

Part of the reason JT wanted the app't was Adler had been a Harper-fanboy who had turned on Poilivere's Cons. So Trudeau's gotcha senate appointment kind of blew up in his face.

[Acajack]

Ok so maybe Adler hasn’t apologized or retracted his comments.

[Gresto]

Rather embarrassing. Don't they have Google?

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

About 10 pages back, I stated that there had been rumours about the Liberals & NDP pulling candidates out of ridings where one party hasn't got a hope to help the other one win by consolidating the ABC vote and hence take away a potential Conservative win of the riding and stopping a PP gov't. In Western Canada many of the ridings are battles between NDP & Tories while in Ontario it's usually a Liberal & Tory battle and similarly so in AC. It's not as much as a big issue in Quebec where the Liberals are only strong on The Island and Outaouais while battles outside those regions are BC & Tory so either party stepping out of the race would make little difference.

These were considered rumours but now are far more than that. LeDrew, in one of his 3 minute political interviews, has confirmed this. He just did an interview with Dan McTeague, a former LIBERAL MP before Trudeau took over the party, and he stated that this is both an open and frequent conversation in both Liberal & NDP ranks. Basically the idea of the ABC vote would become codified.........taking a page out of Macrons playbook to stop a LePen victory. Such an idea would be considered heresy for "Canada's Natural governing Party" but he stated that Trudeau, who he has a clear distain for, will do anything to stay in power.

I can't see that happening. First of all, it probably wouldn't even work. The last poll (and the only one since PP's mid-2023 surge) to ask the question found that in an LPC-NDP alliance scenario, the CPC still has a 6 point lead - and that's from Research Co., a pollster that is usually bearish on the CPC.

But most of all: the huge damage it would cause to both the LPC and NDP brands at a time when both brands are already in the shitter. It would amount to throwing away their whole future just to win a single election.. and probably not even winning it.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

About 10 pages back, I stated that there had been rumours about the Liberals & NDP pulling candidates out of ridings where one party hasn't got a hope to help the other one win by consolidating the ABC vote and hence take away a potential Conservative win of the riding and stopping a PP gov't. In Western Canada many of the ridings are battles between NDP & Tories while in Ontario it's usually a Liberal & Tory battle and similarly so in AC. It's not as much as a big issue in Quebec where the Liberals are only strong on The Island and Outaouais while battles outside those regions are BC & Tory so either party stepping out of the race would make little difference.

These were considered rumours but now are far more than that. LeDrew, in one of his 3 minute political interviews, has confirmed this. He just did an interview with Dan McTeague, a former LIBERAL MP before Trudeau took over the party, and he stated that this is both an open and frequent conversation in both Liberal & NDP ranks. Basically the idea of the ABC vote would become codified.........taking a page out of Macrons playbook to stop a LePen victory. Such an idea would be considered heresy for "Canada's Natural governing Party" but he stated that Trudeau, who he has a clear distain for, will do anything to stay in power.

An interview with Canada's Gas Guru doesn't seem like a particularly strong source that the Liberals and NDP are going to implement a new policy of partial slates for next year's election. Yeah, people have been talking about it for years, probably decades, but it would be almost impossible to implement without some sort of clear geographic distinction (as exists in Germany and Australia). This would almost certainly require changes to both party's constitutions, and it would require some mechanism to decide which party got to run candidates in which ridings, which would require lengthy negotiations that are unlikely to happen before the writ is dropped in 12 months.

[Djeffery]

Gee, if only there was a way that people could vote for the candidates in their riding in order of preference. Some kind of ranking system on their ballots. Maybe something where if your first choice doesn't make the cut, they count your second choice or third choice until someone gets 50%.

[acottawa]

We will make every vote count.

We are committed to ensuring that 2015 will be the last federal election
conducted under the first-past-the-post voting system.

We will convene an all-party Parliamentary committee to review a wide variety
of reforms, such as ranked ballots, proportional representation, mandatory
voting, and online voting.

This committee will deliver its recommendations to Parliament. Within 18
months of forming government, we will introduce legislation to enact electoral
reform.

[Build.It]

I haven't paid attention to the news for about 3 months now, but it would not surprise me at all to see our costumed leader try to pull a stunt such as that.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by acottawa

We will make every vote count.

We are committed to ensuring that 2015 will be the last federal election
conducted under the first-past-the-post voting system.

We will convene an all-party Parliamentary committee to review a wide variety
of reforms, such as ranked ballots, proportional representation, mandatory
voting, and online voting.

This committee will deliver its recommendations to Parliament. Within 18
months of forming government, we will introduce legislation to enact electoral
reform.

JT has decided he likes FPTP.

After all, if proportional representation existed, he would have lost the last two elections!

Why change what's working (for you).

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

JT has decided he likes FPTP.

After all, if proportional representation existed, he would have lost the last two elections!

Why change what's working (for you).

I don't think that is at all clear. Under PR in 2021 especially the PP vote likely would have been much larger at expense of the Cons. The most likley result is a more formal coalition with the NDP. They might have needed the Greens as well who likley also would have improved their vote share though they were so disastrous maybe not.

We would now very likley be looking at a PP and Con coalition. Our system avoids the extreme parties suceeded.

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by theman23

The majority of rentals being used by low income earners in Ontario were likely built before 2018 and the BC ruling hasn't really had time to have any ramifications beyond the single ruling.

You must have some way to back that up?