The NBA is going to
formally study expansion after its new $75B media deal is finalized, with their study process expected to start this fall. The very obvious frontrunner candidates are Seattle and Las Vegas, with the potential Las Vegas bid expected to be backed by LeBron James and Red Bull. It is no surprise that these jurisdictions are leading candidates, given that they have no state income taxes. However, Vancouver, Montreal, and Mexico City are also being floated by both the NBA and various media sources as other potential candidates. The league is widely anticipated to expand by at least 2 teams, but given the playoff structure being conference-based and not division-based, the league is already setup to go past 32 teams and could do so if they really wanted to.
The sale of the Boston Celtics, targeted for later this year, is expected to fetch a valuation around $6-7B USD. This is also
expected to be the benchmark cost of a modern expansion franchise. This is a gigantic price tag, and I think it will unfortunately rule out many potential investor groups in the other cities. It would almost certainly kill any potential Mexico City bid given the volatility of the $MXN, and would be just as problematic for any potential Canadian investors. I would like to hope that Vancouver has a shot at getting a team back this time around, but I have a difficult time believing that any investor group in Canada would be comfortable paying $7B USD for an NBA franchise. That is already higher than the estimated net worth of the Aquilini family (who already expressed that the price of expansion is far too high back in 2018). It might be possible as a consortium with multiple billionaires or a media company involved, but Rogers, Bell, and Telus are generally not looking to make major sports investments right now with higher interest rates eating their money at the moment.