The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

No, I thought I was providing clarity for this part of your post:


Apparently, I was unsuccessful.

Yes I understood the intention; I didn't actually think you "intended" to re-iterate what I was saying. I was pointing out that regardless of intention, your point functions as a re-iteration of what I was saying, ie, obviously I already understand that a normal individual isn't going to have much influence on their own and can't change most people's minds. I connected it to my earlier analogy to show why this isn't important in choosing one's actions since small individual actions add up and we can only be individually responsible for our small part. It was a way to make the connection explicit in case you missed it. It was meant to avoid the potential embarrassment of having someone point out that you missed an obvious connection or the frustration of having me assume you missed something when you actually hadn't.

I find in cases when I'm not sure if someone gets what I'm saying it's often helpful to simultaneously assume that they got it while subtly explicating to be certain. I instinctively put more effort into being positive or diplomatic when speaking to someone I've had disagreements with in the past to avoid that compounding onto future situations.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

News flash: Ssiguy doesn't like electric cars. Details at 11.

News flash: ssiguy has no problem with EVs. Details at 11.

If someone wants to buy an EV then knock yourself out as long as you don't get a $5000 welfare cheque to do it.

As I have stated, EVs day will come but right now the technology isn't there resulting in them being, for the masses, to expensive, too unreliable, and impractical. Proof is in the pudding. Despite having a plethora of EVs now to choose from in every vehicle category, they still only make up 11% of new vehicle purchases. Is there something that 11% knows that the rest of 89% don't.

If you disagree with me fine but I want you to tell me why they aren't selling en masse. If they are the panacea that you and others think then explain to me why they aren't the dominate form of vehicle sales or nearly all of them for that matter. That is NOT a rhetorical question but one I would like you to answer.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Yes I understood the intention; I didn't actually think you "intended" to re-iterate what I was saying. I was pointing out that regardless of intention, your point functions as a re-iteration of what I was saying, ie, obviously I already understand that a normal individual isn't going to have much influence on their own and can't change most people's minds. I connected it to my earlier analogy to show why this isn't important in choosing one's actions since small individual actions add up and we can only be individually responsible for our small part. It was a way to make the connection explicit in case you missed it. It was meant to avoid the potential embarrassment of having someone point out that you missed an obvious connection or the frustration of having me assume you missed something when you actually hadn't.

I find in cases when I'm not sure if someone gets what I'm saying it's often helpful to simultaneously assume that they got it while subtly explicating to be certain. I instinctively put more effort into being positive or diplomatic when speaking to someone I've had disagreements with in the past to avoid that compounding onto future situations.

My apologies for the confusion. I had interpreted your responses as missing the point of what I was intending to communicate, which would be on me as I strive to be clear when I post (but fail achieve success at times).

All good.

[whatnext]

I wonder what this might mean for VW's panned investment here?

LG Energy solution-GM Joint Venture Suspends Construction of 3 Battery Plants in U.S.
Editor Michael Herh 2024.07.22 15:55

Ultium Cells, a US joint venture between LG Energy Solution and General Motors (GM) have suspended the construction of an EV battery plant in the United States due to a temporary slowdown in global demand for electric vehicles (EVs).

According to industry sources, the two companies have decided to pause the construction of EV Battery Plant 3 in Michigan of the United States. They were building the plant with the aim of starting its operations in 2025. The completion of the third plant scheduled for the second half of this year will be pushed back to 2025 or later, some analysts forecast.

Of the five lines at the plant, only two have received some equipment. The schedule for the remaining lines has been put on hold....

https://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news...l?idxno=221668

Europe’s Biggest Electric Car Battery Maker Mulls New Products as Demand Wanes
By Konrad Krasuski
July 23, 2024 at 9:29AM EDT

(Bloomberg) -- The biggest producer of batteries for electric vehicles in Europe may branch out to build energy storage facilities for households harnessing renewable energy, amid weak demand for e-cars.

The Polish manufacturing unit of LG Energy Solution Ltd already indicated that its sales revenue from the east European country would likely drop by around a third this year to 26.5 billion zloty ($6.7 billion).

“We are considering developing LG Energy Solution Wroclaw toward energy storage,” Joanna Silska, a spokeswoman for the company in the southwestern Polish city, said by email. “Energy transformation is crucial and inevitable for European economies, therefore we’re examining the potential for investments in new manufacturing capacities.”

Europe’s EV shift has faltered due to high prices and the removal of subsidies by a number of governments. This is weighing on suppliers such as LG Energy Solution, which in 2016 announced its EV battery plant investment in Poland, with annual production capacity of 100,000 units....

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investin...-demand-wanes/

[whatnext]

Just keeping everyone up-to-date on the activities of everyones' favourite douchebag EV mogul has been up to:

Elon Is Playing a Dangerous Game With Kamala Harris Deepfake
Posting a manipulated recording of the US presidential candidate’s voice is no joke. It will embolden others to follow suit.
July 29, 2024 at 9:21 AM PDT
By Parmy Olson

A video that Elon Musk posted on X over the weekend has the voice of Kamala Harris speaking over her first big campaign ad, describing herself damningly as “the ultimate diversity hire” who does not “know the first thing about running the country.” It’s a powerful, devastating twist on the original ad because the voice is unmistakably Harris’. But it’s been digitally manipulated, most likely by an AI tool.

X prohibits users from posting media that has been “deceptively altered” and “likely to result in widespread confusion on public issues.” But such rules apparently do not apply to Musk himself. The original poster of the video marked it as a parody and got 22,000 views. Musk made no such disclosure when he reposted the video, which has been watched more than 128 million times.1 That may make him the site’s worst spreader of misinformation....

....Musk decimated the platform’s trust and safety team when he bought the company in late 2022, initially with a 30% cut in the company’s global safety staff, according to a report from Australia's eSafety Commissioner. Whoever is left to enforce its deepfake policies probably has the toughest job in the tech industry.

Musk seems unable to grasp his responsibility as one of the world’s most powerful media owners as the US heads into a fraught election. He should spend more time mending X’s election integrity efforts or letting his CEO run the business, and less time playing games and sowing lies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...&sref=x4rjnz06

[Truenorth00]

Exactly as I have warned about before.



https://www.theglobeandmail.com/poli...nadian-market/



BYD Mexico Plant Will Create 10,000 Jobs, Executive Says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...executive-says

The US imposes substantial rules on subcomponent origins to qualify for subsidies. Canada does not impose rules for subsidies and in many provinces don't have anything beyond federal subsidy. So BYD looks like they are going to take on legacy auto directly. ICEV and BEV. Right as legacy OEMs say that they will slow down on EV manufacturing investments. Can't say they weren't warned.

[Wigs]

Canada should allow BYD to build a plant here, on the stipulation it has to be unionized labour (UAW facility).
I've seen what Chinese manufacturers put American workers through in the US in union blocking "right to work" (for as cheap as humanly possible) States, and it's not pretty.

I understand the likelihood of that happening is next to nil.

BYD does have some interesting electric vehicles, though.

[SpongeG]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Just keeping everyone up-to-date on the activities of everyones' favourite douchebag EV mogul has been up to:

Elon Is Playing a Dangerous Game With Kamala Harris Deepfake
Posting a manipulated recording of the US presidential candidate’s voice is no joke. It will embolden others to follow suit.
July 29, 2024 at 9:21 AM PDT
By Parmy Olson

A video that Elon Musk posted on X over the weekend has the voice of Kamala Harris speaking over her first big campaign ad, describing herself damningly as “the ultimate diversity hire” who does not “know the first thing about running the country.” It’s a powerful, devastating twist on the original ad because the voice is unmistakably Harris’. But it’s been digitally manipulated, most likely by an AI tool.

X prohibits users from posting media that has been “deceptively altered” and “likely to result in widespread confusion on public issues.” But such rules apparently do not apply to Musk himself. The original poster of the video marked it as a parody and got 22,000 views. Musk made no such disclosure when he reposted the video, which has been watched more than 128 million times.1 That may make him the site’s worst spreader of misinformation....

....Musk decimated the platform’s trust and safety team when he bought the company in late 2022, initially with a 30% cut in the company’s global safety staff, according to a report from Australia's eSafety Commissioner. Whoever is left to enforce its deepfake policies probably has the toughest job in the tech industry.

Musk seems unable to grasp his responsibility as one of the world’s most powerful media owners as the US heads into a fraught election. He should spend more time mending X’s election integrity efforts or letting his CEO run the business, and less time playing games and sowing lies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...&sref=x4rjnz06

Apparently, he closed the white guys for Kamala's account down. it's his idea of what is free speech not what it actually is.

In other news I was in Bellingham just over the border on Friday and saw an actual Tesla Cybertruck in person, it was really weird and really quite ugly. Are there any in Canada yet?

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Exactly as I have warned about before.

BYD Mexico Plant Will Create 10,000 Jobs, Executive Says

The US imposes substantial rules on subcomponent origins to qualify for subsidies. Canada does not impose rules for subsidies and in many provinces don't have anything beyond federal subsidy. So BYD looks like they are going to take on legacy auto directly. ICEV and BEV. Right as legacy OEMs say that they will slow down on EV manufacturing investments. Can't say they weren't warned.

I am still shocked we got away with getting the US to include us in their component origin but giving our subsidy away to anyone. So far it's mostly been a TESLA from China story and it looks like by 2025 we will largely be out of the EV subsidy game. Quebec is phasing out with likely Federal subsidy is repealed and BC depending on election result would probably do the same. I guess that leaves a few small provinces.


The US election will ultimately decide a lot of this with Harris in resurgence and Trump kind of imploding (though he's survived and thrived bigger legacy media described fatal mistakes before) there is a chance the US continues on the path it is on. If they keep subsidizing the Canadian components as our battery factories come online we will have to get on the same page with them.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by SpongeG

Apparently, he closed the white guys for Kamala's account down. it's his idea of what is free speech not what it actually is.

In other news I was in Bellingham just over the border on Friday and saw an actual Tesla Cybertruck in person, it was really weird and really quite ugly. Are there any in Canada yet?

Yes, I've seen several around London.

[Nouvellecosse]

I neither like nor dislike the look of the Cyber truck. Beyond being weird it just sort of... is. But from all I've heard about it's lack of practicality, the whole thing just seems absurd. From what I can tell, the aesthetics don't actually accomplish anything other than making it look unusual and actually hinder its function. It's heavier than necessary, is very prone to rust and stains, has compromised cargo hauling ability, difficult to repair, and the edges are very sharp to the point of posing a hazard.

It seems to me like the company was so interesting in maintaining its image of being innovative, creative, and forward thinking that it resorted to presenting an aesthetic of innovation without it being backed by actual substance. In other words, they went outside the box just to be seen as being outside the box rather than to add real utility.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I am still shocked we got away with getting the US to include us in their component origin but giving our subsidy away to anyone.

Our subsidy is CA$5000. The US federal EV rebate is up to US$7500. There's a large difference between the two. Ours are low enough that BYD actually thinks they can take on ICEV without qualifying for the subsidy, if they have to. This is exactly what I warned about (and was dismissed in this forum... getting to be a habit here). And this is what every legacy automaker fears. BYD isn't just gaining EV marketshare. They can convert ICEV drivers.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

So far it's mostly been a TESLA from China story and it looks like by 2025 we will largely be out of the EV subsidy game. Quebec is phasing out with likely Federal subsidy is repealed and BC depending on election result would probably do the same. I guess that leaves a few small provinces.

Provincial subsidies are irrelevant to the discussion. Just like state subsidies are irrelevant to the discussion in the US.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The US election will ultimately decide a lot of this with Harris in resurgence and Trump kind of imploding (though he's survived and thrived bigger legacy media described fatal mistakes before) there is a chance the US continues on the path it is on.

Must be disappointing for you.....

Originally Posted by YOWetal

If they keep subsidizing the Canadian components as our battery factories come online we will have to get on the same page with them.

Really doubt the Americans care that much about how much marketshare BYD gets in Canada. It's no different than worrying about how much marketshare Mexican made Volkswagen get here.

We may do it to protect some domestic manufacturing jobs. But that's a different priority. And there too, there are limits to these tariffs with USMCA. After all, these are Mexican assembled cars at the end of the day.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Canada should allow BYD to build a plant here, on the stipulation it has to be unionized labour (UAW facility).
I've seen what Chinese manufacturers put American workers through in the US in union blocking "right to work" (for as cheap as humanly possible) States, and it's not pretty.

I understand the likelihood of that happening is next to nil.

BYD does have some interesting electric vehicles, though.

There is nothing stopping BYD from building a plant in Canada. They already have an electric bus plant in the GTA. And if they built an electric car plant here, they'd have to follow Canadian law like everybody else.

This discussion has come up because they are planning on building a plant in Mexico with 10 000 jobs going there. All kosher under USMCA.

[whatnext]

There was a very interesting article in Der Spiegel on the German EV situation. Worth a read.

https://www.spiegel.de/international...5-423866d7080f

[P'tit Renard]

Hertz definitely has better EV choices than Tesla in their fleet these days. It's nice to see that I can pick up a Kia or Hyuandai EV at the lot these days, though it's still annoying that they try to push Tesla on you.

Hertz Misses Estimates as Soured Tesla Bet Fuels Losses
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business...-fuels-losses/

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Hertz definitely has better EV choices than Tesla in their fleet these days. It's nice to see that I can pick up a Kia or Hyuandai EV at the lot these days, though it's still annoying that they try to push Tesla on you.

Tesla is by far the easiest for non-EV users. Superchargers are all built into the navigation and it will tell you if you need to charge and how long.

I wonder what instruction they give to non-Tesla EV renters.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Tesla is by far the easiest for non-EV users. Superchargers are all built into the navigation and it will tell you if you need to charge and how long.

I wonder what instruction they give to non-Tesla EV renters.

Speaking with the rental guys, usually there's a dichotomy of users. Usually it's either you're already a regular EV user that don't need instructions, or you're sceptical of EVs and always go for the gas cars.

Many Hertz EVs are also preset so that on the dashboard it'll keep pointing out where the nearest EV chargers are at any point in time.

The rental offices also can SMS you links for EV operating instructions, and many have printouts available to supply to customers.

KIA and Hyundai EVs are so well designed, it's hard to imagine they'd be harder for users who aren't familiar with EVs. Also they've kept most of the conventional buttons, so the user isn't scrambling on the screen to figure out controls.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Our subsidy is CA$5000. The US federal EV rebate is up to US$7500. There's a large difference between the two. Ours are low enough that BYD actually thinks they can take on ICEV without qualifying for the subsidy, if they have to. This is exactly what I warned about (and was dismissed in this forum... getting to be a habit here). And this is what every legacy automaker fears. BYD isn't just gaining EV marketshare. They can convert ICEV drivers.

Provincial subsidies are irrelevant to the discussion. Just like state subsidies are irrelevant to the discussion in the US.

You can't ignore provincial rebates as in Canada they have always been the main story. Actually that's a general rule of our federation you need to include provincial debt or mandates etc to compare us more unitary states. (Which the US is at least fiscally)

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Must be disappointing for you.....

I am not a Trump suporter. Though domestically I may split 50-50 on him vs Biden or Harris and yeah on this issue prefer his approach. He's too dangerous to democracy unless you are really right wing though more and more I think the threat he poses is exxagerated. Is he really going to try and stay in power in 2029 at 82?

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Really doubt the Americans care that much about how much marketshare BYD gets in Canada. It's no different than worrying about how much marketshare Mexican made Volkswagen get here.

We may do it to protect some domestic manufacturing jobs. But that's a different priority. And there too, there are limits to these tariffs with USMCA. After all, these are Mexican assembled cars at the end of the day.

You might be right. They should be blazing mad that they give subsidies to Canadian made cars and we let their competitiors get ours. But don't seem to be. Do we actually have any content is highly sold EVs?

I think any tarrif on Mexican assembled cars even if we matched the US would see a strong Mexican reaction for sure. Ironic it would be protecting Canadian jobs making Camrys etc. slowing our adoption of EVs.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

You can't ignore provincial rebates as in Canada they have always been the main story.

Provincial and state rebates are not nationally regulated. So as long as they comply with global trade agreements, they aren't relevant to the discussion. No province is going to be able to make specific rules that target Mexican assembled Chinese OEM BEVs. Only the feds can do that.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I am not a Trump suporter.

I was eluding to your 24/7 whining about and attribution of any high level post by a POC to DEI policies. See recent discussion on OC Transpo Chair. And your EV skepticism.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

You might be right. They should be blazing mad that they give subsidies to Canadian made cars and we let their competitiors get ours. But don't seem to be. Do we actually have any content is highly sold EVs?

I think any tarrif on Mexican assembled cars even if we matched the US would see a strong Mexican reaction for sure. Ironic it would be protecting Canadian jobs making Camrys etc. slowing our adoption of EVs.

I really don't understand why people think Mexico is different from Canada with auto manufacturing. It's not. The same rules apply to all three countries in USMCA. It's not possible to specially target vehicles assembled in Mexico. What the US did do is impose tariffs on subcomponents and commodities involved in the construction of those cars. And even those don't have to be sourced in North America. As long as they are from a friendshoring jurisdiction, they will be tariff exempt. Theoretically, Chilean or Australian Lithium can be used be refined and turned into batteries in Mexico and then put in a BEV and the thing will be completely free of tariffs.

This is where discrimination on rebates come in. They exclude all Chinese manufacturers. Even if they manufacture in friendly jurisdictions. But BYD has gotten their battery costs really low (rumours they are at $50/kWh where $100/kWh could be competitive with ICEV). So they may just decide they can compete without the subsidy and tariffs on just a portion of the car. Should be noted that if we're phasing out subsidies, we won't have nearly the leverage that the Americans have.

Ultimately, every legacy automaker knew this was coming. They could and should have prepared. If it wasn't BYD, it was going to be somebody else. And we're just scratching modern battery technology and chemistry. Things like solid state will crush ICEV. And since they didn't even bother building good EVs, better batteries won't save them. They'll just advantage competent BEV makers even more.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Provincial and state rebates are not nationally regulated. So as long as they comply with global trade agreements, they aren't relevant to the discussion. No province is going to be able to make specific rules that target Mexican assembled Chinese OEM BEVs. Only the feds can do that.

Oh this is a different issue. But a revised CUSMA can absolutely include provincial measures should for example the US insist on it. This would be the only reason for Canada to act as for us access to the US market is all that really matters at the end of the day.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I was eluding to your 24/7 whining about and attribution of any high level post by a POC to DEI policies. See recent discussion on OC Transpo Chair. And your EV skepticism.

I won't rehash that but absolutely would love to eliminate all race based policies and then we won't have to question anyone. The politicians opposing it though with Trump the biggest example border (or more than border) on white supremacy though so don't get my vote.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I really don't understand why people think Mexico is different from Canada with auto manufacturing. It's not. The same rules apply to all three countries in USMCA. It's not possible to specially target vehicles assembled in Mexico. What the US did do is impose tariffs on subcomponents and commodities involved in the construction of those cars. And even those don't have to be sourced in North America. As long as they are from a friendshoring jurisdiction, they will be tariff exempt. Theoretically, Chilean or Australian Lithium can be used be refined and turned into batteries in Mexico and then put in a BEV and the thing will be completely free of tariffs.

This is where discrimination on rebates come in. They exclude all Chinese manufacturers. Even if they manufacture in friendly jurisdictions. But BYD has gotten their battery costs really low (rumours they are at $50/kWh where $100/kWh could be competitive with ICEV). So they may just decide they can compete without the subsidy and tariffs on just a portion of the car. Should be noted that if we're phasing out subsidies, we won't have nearly the leverage that the Americans have.

Mexico is actually a bit different under CUSMA as factories with low wages (under $20/hr) get less preferential treatment so Mexico is constricted from growing soley on wages at least.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Ultimately, every legacy automaker knew this was coming. They could and should have prepared. If it wasn't BYD, it was going to be somebody else. And we're just scratching modern battery technology and chemistry. Things like solid state will crush ICEV. And since they didn't even bother building good EVs, better batteries won't save them. They'll just advantage competent BEV makers even more.

You might be rate but this is 10 years away and nobdoy cares about beyond thier term. If you're right at least our government is making some efforts to make sure we are part of the new supply chain though I am not sure it's take the best approach. I'd prefer we focus on being competitive but I know industiral policy doesn't work like a Milton Friedman texbook espeically given other actors actions.