Fredericton-Saint John Combined Airport

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Nashe

Not trying to be a jerk but, how's that route 7 twinning coming? That (and the "on again, off again" Route 11 twinning project) tells me a lot about the NB government's interest in big projects. When I say "market", I mean "business case" because I don't see the provincial government having deep enough pockets for this in my lifetime.

It would surely be a lot more than just the provincial government… the federal government would be equal investors at least.

As for the business case, I think the idea speaks for itself that both cargo and passenger traffic would increase greatly. The Higgs government absolutely won’t be for such a massive project, but don’t count out Susan Holt. She’ll very likely be the first Premier representing Moncton in the history of NB, and Saint John voters may very well be the difference makers that elect her.

There’s a demographic case for it too… a better airport for Fredericton and Saint John facilitates immigration as well. Two million plus passenger airports should be the goal. YSJ and YFC will likely never crack 1 million yearly passengers on their own.

As for the deep pockets, do we really want to get into billions left one the table or wasted on inefficient tax systems or even subsidies to industry? A billion dollar project isn’t that hard to finance for a province of soon to be one million people, especially not if we enacted comprehensive tax reforms and stopped being so generous with subsidies to industries that don’t need the subsidies.

It would be better to start the groundwork now, waiting around to hit a million people or another milestone is just arbitrary. Saint John and Fredericton aren’t ever going to stop being two of the three biggest cities in NB that could share an airport roughly 30 mins away from each other.

Why wait around for more population growth to invest in an idea that makes sense now? And will only continue to make more and more sense into the future.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

What’s there to wait for when the combined CMA’s that would be directly served by this airport (Fredericton and Saint John) are already considerably more populous than Greater Moncton?

Also, the free market doesn’t exactly decide much when it comes to large scale infrastructure projects like Airports… it’s mostly up to government.

The difference in Moncton FUA and SJ/Freddy FUA combined is approx 45,000, which by your own definition isn't "considerably more" and this difference is shrinking FAST. After all the Moncton CMA is now likely 50,000+ larger than SJ CMA and you claimed several times that there is no difference between both cities.

This also doesn't factor the Moncton airport serves the majority of northeast NB + a good portion of PEI which easily adds an additional 150,000+ client base. So you can't just compare the FUA's, this would be dishonest/misleading when evaluating the total population the airport is servicing. This is clearly reflected when comparing air traffic statistics.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

The difference in Moncton FUA and SJ/Freddy FUA combined is approx 45,000, which by your own definition isn't "considerably more" and this difference is shrinking FAST. After all the Moncton CMA is now likely 50,000+ larger than SJ CMA and you claimed several times that there is no difference between both cities.

This also doesn't factor the Moncton airport serves the majority of northeast NB + a good portion of PEI which easily adds an additional 150,000+ client base. So you can't just compare the FUA's, this would be dishonest/misleading when evaluating the total population the airport is servicing. This is clearly reflected when comparing air traffic statistics.

Except we don’t use FUA in Canada, so that’s kind of a moot point.

This airport would also serve the majority of southern NB. The fact of the matter is that the Fredericton and Saint John CMA’s combined is larger than the Moncton CMA. This is what matters the most, not the catchment area of rural folk within 2-3 hours of the airport.



The Fredericton and Saint John areas have more population combined than the Moncton area does… this isn’t made up. The Sussex airport wouldn’t be better for anyone except KV. A two major airport model will be better for people in all three major cities.

YSJ and YFC just aren’t designed to compete with YQM, and that’s a problem. People don’t want to move to city’s with crap airports. I’m really not getting while some of you Moncton posters are that opposed to the idea… competition is a good thing for all three cities.

Investing in a new major airport is a good long term investment that will pay dividends in the long run. It’ll make sense in twenty years time too, so why wait? The government should at least finance a study.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

The Fredericton and Saint John areas have more population combined than the Moncton area does… this isn’t made up.

The fact that you feel the need to annex Fredericton to SJ in order to beat Moncton is kinda made up.

SJ and Freddy are two separate CMAs (and this is using Statistics Canada rules). There is about 100 km of wilderness between the two cities. They are never going to merge into a single CMA (even if Statistics Canada rules allowed such a thing, which is doesn't).

This is obviously a passion project of yours, which is fine, but, the current reality and the overall cost of this project are such that it will never happen. If YFC and YSJ never existed, and you were planning a brand new airport to service Freddy and SJ, then I could see the merit, but, as things stand, there is very little to commend this idea.

Some people might say my dream of a Moncton campus of UNB is also an unrealistic fantasy, and, perhaps it is, but, at least a Moncton UNBM campus would be scalable (start small and plan for future growth), and, would also address an actual need. A combined western NB airport however is not scalable, and would require a huge up front investment in the $1-2B range, and, would leave two legacy airports (YFC and YSJ) with uncertain futures.

I can't see this ever happening.

This debate is becoming circular and tedious. I shall not be participating in the future, unless some new compelling information comes to light.

Cheers!!

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

It would surely be a lot more than just the provincial government… the federal government would be equal investors at least.

Sure but, why don't they invest in the twinning of 7 first, for example? Isn't that more needed?

As for the business case, I think the idea speaks for itself that both cargo and passenger traffic would increase greatly.

How? Where would they come from? If every passenger flying from F or SJ flew out of the new airport (they'd have to) how would that justify an entirely new site without completely scrapping the other two?

There’s a demographic case for it too… a better airport for Fredericton and Saint John facilitates immigration as well. Two million plus passenger airports should be the goal. YSJ and YFC will likely never crack 1 million yearly passengers on their own.

If that's the case, why not just shut down either YFC or YSJ and pour money into the survivor? That would be a LOT cheaper than dumping both and going with something new.

As for the deep pockets, do we really want to get into billions left one the table or wasted on inefficient tax systems or even subsidies to industry?

You know as well as I do that that has been happening for a long time and won't change. If it won't happen for healthcare, it definitely won't happen for an airport.

It would be better to start the groundwork now, waiting around to hit a million people or another milestone is just arbitrary. Saint John and Fredericton aren’t ever going to stop being two of the three biggest cities in NB that could share an airport roughly 30 mins away from each other.

So what is your theoretical "next step"?

Why wait around for more population growth to invest in an idea that makes sense now? And will only continue to make more and more sense into the future.

Because, when it come to "the benjamins", it doesn't make sense at all. It'd be a massive gamble on the scale of YMX.

Note: I'm not referencing Moncton here at all, because the proposal really has nothing to do with YQM. The idea's merits and risks exist purely independent of Moncton, for the purposes of my arguments.

[Pugsley]

So, I think the core thesis of this original work I did is being missed. The thesis was that strategic infrastructure, like an Aerotropolis, could impact future development and sprawl. It wasn't about creating a single megalopolis, the debate over government spending, or whether Moncton or Fredericton/Saint John is bigger or better than the other.

It was to demonstrate through proven models, like the ones developed by Kasarda, how airports and a surrounding Aerotropolis, along with a highly-contained corridor for growth, would impact population growth and the direction of sprawl in the two "CMAs". That was the core argument. The second assignment was demonstrating what would be needed to make the project viable given economic conditions at the time. This is where the proposed multi-use military, commercial, and freight uses came into play and a unique strategy (at the time) to focus on connecting passengers and freight, not domestic-sourced travellers and freight.

As I said before, this was simply to share the work done years ago and NOT to start arguments between people over Moncton v. Saint John. We have enough of that on the other pages.

I wish I'd never posted any of it.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

So, I think the core thesis of this original work I did is being missed. The thesis was that strategic infrastructure, like an Aerotropolis, could impact future development and sprawl. It wasn't about creating a single megalopolis, the debate over government spending, or whether Moncton or Fredericton/Saint John is bigger or better than the other.

That's a very good point and on the bolded bit, I definitely agree. I think the idea, if it were currently reality, would likely accomplish a lot of what your thesis is about.

My only real contributions are regarding how realistic it is of a plan given the existing airports and financial constraints.

I wish I'd never posted any of it.

I'm actually glad you did. It's one of (if not THE) most well put together schemes I've seen here!

[MonctonRad]

No offence to you Pugsley, and there is certainly a lot of merit to your work. It makes a good thesis (as a thought experiment). I certainly would give you a passing grade and granted you your masters degree.

My only point is that "this ship has sailed." I think the only solution to the idea of a single common airport for SJ and Freddy is to close YSJ (or, at least downgrade it to general aviation), and concentrate all your efforts on YFC. The Fredericton airport is the de facto airport for western NB anyway, with multiple carriers serving it, similar to YQM. It is already NB's second airport. It's on the road between Freddy and SJ anyway (although not halfway in between)

It would be far, far cheaper to accept reality and expand YFC to serve both cities rather than build an entirely new airport.

There, I've said it, let the vitriol roll..............

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

So, I think the core thesis of this original work I did is being missed. The thesis was that strategic infrastructure, like an Aerotropolis, could impact future development and sprawl. It wasn't about creating a single megalopolis, the debate over government spending, or whether Moncton or Fredericton/Saint John is bigger or better than the other.

It was to demonstrate through proven models, like the ones developed by Kasarda, how airports and a surrounding Aerotropolis, along with a highly-contained corridor for growth, would impact population growth and the direction of sprawl in the two "CMAs". That was the core argument. The second assignment was demonstrating what would be needed to make the project viable given economic conditions at the time. This is where the proposed multi-use military, commercial, and freight uses came into play and a unique strategy (at the time) to focus on connecting passengers and freight, not domestic-sourced travellers and freight.

As I said before, this was simply to share the work done years ago and NOT to start arguments between people over Moncton v. Saint John. We have enough of that on the other pages.

I wish I'd never posted any of it.

Your thesis is extremely interesting- don't take it down. It's a really interesting what-if exercise and there's parts of it both the Fredericton and Saint John airports could explore in greater depth, separately. I and many others enjoyed it.

What the 'argument' looks like is, less SJ vs Moncton, and more reality vs fantasy. Talking hypotheticals and what-could-have-been is like 1/3 of what the Atlantic sub-forum is, for sure. But discussions like twinning Route 7, developing the Vision Lands, and so on are grounded in plausibility or perceived necessity, not just 'wouldn't it be cool if'.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

So, I think the core thesis of this original work I did is being missed. The thesis was that strategic infrastructure, like an Aerotropolis, could impact future development and sprawl. It wasn't about creating a single megalopolis, the debate over government spending, or whether Moncton or Fredericton/Saint John is bigger or better than the other.

It was to demonstrate through proven models, like the ones developed by Kasarda, how airports and a surrounding Aerotropolis, along with a highly-contained corridor for growth, would impact population growth and the direction of sprawl in the two "CMAs". That was the core argument. The second assignment was demonstrating what would be needed to make the project viable given economic conditions at the time. This is where the proposed multi-use military, commercial, and freight uses came into play and a unique strategy (at the time) to focus on connecting passengers and freight, not domestic-sourced travellers and freight.

As I said before, this was simply to share the work done years ago and NOT to start arguments between people over Moncton v. Saint John. We have enough of that on the other pages.

I wish I'd never posted any of it.

I'm glad you did post it. It is a very thorough thought experiment, that does highlight some possiblities, in a lot more depth than a lot of thought experiments go into.

You never really presented it as a "Road map for the future" or anything like that, and you've been pretty clear that it's not necessarily something that NEEDS to be done, just that if it were, this might be how it would look.

These types of thought experiments can be very useful, to get people to think outside of the box sometime and consider different options. Most of them are not really feasible in reality for various reasons, but they often have nuggets that could be taken and used elsewhere.

On a smaller scale, I've long pointed out that the current routing of the TCH between Freddy and Moncton is a mistake. IMO, it should have gone further south to hook up with Sussex and follow Route 7 from there, and let Sussex be a tripoint of highways, with a twinned route 7 to SJ from there. It would (IIRC) have only added an extra 20km to the TCH routing, while letting it pass through more communities along the way instead of endless forest.

But I recognize that ship sailed long ago. Re-rerouting the TCH is never going to happen barring something extreme happening, so I'm not advocating that my solution is the one that SHOULD be implemented to right a wrong or anything like that.

Sadly, it feels like some people are taking your proposal in just that way and advocating for it a bit too strongly, and it's turning others off from the discussion. While it's good to be a cheerleader for a cause, it's also good to read the room and recognize that while something might make sense and be a great idea, economic and political realities are a thing and often get in the way of the "ideal" solutions. Sometimes you have to put that idea to bed and focus on what you actually have and figure out how to make it work.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The fact that you feel the need to annex Fredericton to SJ in order to beat Moncton is kinda made up.

SJ and Freddy are two separate CMAs (and this is using Statistics Canada rules). There is about 100 km of wilderness between the two cities. They are never going to merge into a single CMA (even if Statistics Canada rules allowed such a thing, which is doesn't).

Why do you keep on saying that I’m trying to combine the two CMAs as one? I’m talking about their combined population being justification for an airport located midway between the two CMA’s.

It’s a very easy concept to understand and makes sense to combined the population of both centres for the purposes of a shared airport.

But thanks for making it all about Moncton somehow, like you always do no matter what

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

But thanks for making it all about Moncton somehow, like you always do no matter what

You're the one who seems to think you need this airport to compete with Moncton.

You're also the one decrying the absence of downtown residential tower construction in SJ compared to Moncton.

You're the one trying to make this a competition, not me.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Except we don’t use FUA in Canada, so that’s kind of a moot point.

This airport would also serve the majority of southern NB. The fact of the matter is that the Fredericton and Saint John CMA’s combined is larger than the Moncton CMA. This is what matters the most, not the catchment area of rural folk within 2-3 hours of the airport.



The Fredericton and Saint John areas have more population combined than the Moncton area does… this isn’t made up. The Sussex airport wouldn’t be better for anyone except KV. A two major airport model will be better for people in all three major cities.

YSJ and YFC just aren’t designed to compete with YQM, and that’s a problem. People don’t want to move to city’s with crap airports. I’m really not getting while some of you Moncton posters are that opposed to the idea… competition is a good thing for all three cities.

Investing in a new major airport is a good long term investment that will pay dividends in the long run. It’ll make sense in twenty years time too, so why wait? The government should at least finance a study.

It matters because that's actually the population being served by the airport, just because you don't like what the numbers are showing doesn't make it any less real. It's an undeniable fact that YQM serves more people than YSJ/YFC combined.

I don't think anyone's opposed to an airport but we're opposed to another logistics center because the province simply isn't big enough to support multiple major logistic centers. Moncton's true identity is a logistic center and it's called the HUB city for a reason. This would literally be an attempt to cripple Moncton's economy although It believe would fail miserably because Moncton's geographical advantage. Do I really need to explain this again why so many corporations are choosing to setup in Moncton over cities like Halifax and SJ/Freddy aren't even a consideration?...Geography/Efficiency/Saving money. Corporations are interested in saving money and maximizing profits, and Moncton is literally the most efficient way to achieve this by Land/Air logistics.

Virtually everything this new airport wants to achieve logistically is already established and/or being setup in Moncton and Halifax. This leaves water/port logistics, which is why I believe SJ should be focused on their port instead of an airport. Its an uphill battle vs Halifax but it's the only way I see SJ and the province getting a ROI. If SJ succeeds in boosting the port, naturally this would create more jobs, boosting the population and ultimately increasing Air traffic to YSJ and offering cheaper flights. SJ should double down on it's strength instead of trying to boost it's weakness. YSJ will improve over time.

NB isn't big enough to have all three cities competing in the same sectors, some overlap is fine but the focus should be on the boosting the City's main strengths; SJ = Port/refinery. Moncton = logistic hub, bilingualism. Freddy = Gov, Uni(R&D).

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

So, I think the core thesis of this original work I did is being missed. The thesis was that strategic infrastructure, like an Aerotropolis, could impact future development and sprawl. It wasn't about creating a single megalopolis, the debate over government spending, or whether Moncton or Fredericton/Saint John is bigger or better than the other.

I don’t think anyone has seriously suggested Saint John and Fredericton would become one single megalopolis simply by sharing an airport, MonctonRad is trying to claim I’ve suggested as such but I haven’t.

There’s no reason to why this had to get into a Moncton vs Fredericton/ Saint John discussion beyond comparing the populations of the areas or bringing up relevant passenger traffic numbers.

Not sure how a thread on the topic of a combined airport wouldn’t get into provincial and federal government spending, though kinda unavoidable, isn’t it?

Personally, I think there’s far bigger waste of taxpayer dollars going on both within the provincial and federal government with respect to NB, than what this type of project would like cost and entail. I think the idea of a combined airport is a great idea with huge long term economic potential and deserves further study.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

You're the one who seems to think you need this airport to compete with Moncton.

You're also the one decrying the absence of downtown residential tower construction in SJ compared to Moncton.

You're the one trying to make this a competition, not me.

To compete with the Moncton Airport, which I have to remind you, would be totally rad for Moncton too, dude! As for what I’ve said in other threads about the lack of residential towers going up in Saint John… this isn’t the thread to bring that up, yeeesh

Competition between two major airports would be a good thing, though, right?

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

My only point is that "this ship has sailed." I think the only solution to the idea of a single common airport for SJ and Freddy is to close YSJ (or, at least downgrade it to general aviation), and concentrate all your efforts on YFC. The Fredericton airport is the de facto airport for western NB anyway, with multiple carriers serving it, similar to YQM. It is already NB's second airport. It's on the road between Freddy and SJ anyway (although not halfway in between)

It would be far, far cheaper to accept reality and expand YFC to serve both cities rather than build an entirely new airport.

There, I've said it, let the vitriol roll..............

What a surprise. Though, I don’t think it’s fair for the second biggest city in the province to have an hour drive to the airport. However, this idea could work if you tweaked it at bit into the future. Transition YSJ to private aviation and cargo, and then build a new terminal for YFC 30 minutes south of the current terminal, which could be further expanded into the future and eventually replace the old YFC altogether.

If shutting down YSJ actually meant cheaper flights and more routes than are currently offered out of YSJ and YFC, I think i’d accept that trade off as a short term term solution only. But it’s not a great option unless there’s a solid plan to eventually build a major airport closer to midway between the two CMAs eventually.