Fredericton-Saint John Combined Airport

[Pugsley]

[Pugsley]

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Thanks for updating this again Puglsey. You’ve put a lot of work into this and it shows.


I can’t imagine you’d go through all this effort if you didn’t think there remained an economic case for the combined airport.


What would you say to the naysayers who think we’ve already sunk too much money into YFC and YSJ to spend even more constructing a new, combined airport… what could be done with YFC and YSJ so all those millions invested into them already aren’t wasted?

[Pugsley]

Great question and thanks for the compliments.

First, this was written originally BEFORE the money had been sunk into the airports, so had this been the direction, it would have been money better invested, even though it is significantly more than what has been put into YSJ and YFC to date. The problem with the investment since then is the ROI to date. Yes the airports are bigger but it hasn't really done much to add substantially to the amount of service from either airport. We still don't have any direct US connections, frequency of flights is still inadequate, and the infrastructure to really attract any major airlines and routes from either airport hasn't been established.

So first, I'd argue that the money spent in recent years hasn't been wasted, but not optimized in terms of ROI.

Thinking for the future, there is still a valid case for investing in this model even though money has been spent to date. Much of the investment to date has been on passenger facilities, like seating, gate signage, lighting, baggage carousels, and on-site equipment. All of these technically could be moved or repurposed into a new combined facility. They could also be sold to other markets as the two airports are decommissioned. This would offset some of the cost for the terminal, but modestly.

It is the other uses of the airport where the cost of the investment is off-set significantly. Having the military transportation facility would be an obvious one. This off-sets costs for a new terminal by having the Canadian Military pay for parts of the runway, air traffic control, light systems, and related infrastructure. As does the freight and logistics hub. Add to that the reduction in duplication with two airport CEOs, CFOs, admin staff, and more - the investment here is about maximizing ROI both in terms of operations AND economic impact. Having one airport along with the other uses being active investors and beneficiaries is a big part. Something the current two-airport scenario just can't do today.

But overall, I think the message is that this project shouldn't be, nor would it be successful, if run solely by the government. The logical solution is a private-public partnership for multiple elements of the project. From the toll road to/from the Aerotopolis, the adjacent commercial and residential areas, to the terminal itself. The idea that this would be something the government could do is unfathomable. These other elements would be of great interest and highly profitable for private-sector investors and developers, which the government investors would see return from in terms of taxation and overall GDP growth.

As such, it really should be managed by a leader like Vantage or a major Airport development organization with local government being an investor and reducing red-tape for it to happen, but not managing it.

[Pugsley]

Another comment I'd make (or argument) would be around the money we've spent as a province over the years to create jobs when we could have (and still could) focus the investment into the infrastructure that drives economic growth. When I originally wrote this, the province was spending millions to bring call centres to the province with incentives. More recently, the focus has been on tech.

While Fredericton has developed a decent tech sector, the argument to be made is how much bigger could it have been had this vision been realized and more direct connections had been made? Would we have needed as much taxpayer dollars spent on subsidizing tech jobs if we had built the infrastructure that would have created vital links to markets like New York, London, or elsewhere where venture capital could easily be accessed? What would our tourism sector look like had we established more direct air links to major US and European cities? How much bigger would the Port of Saint John be if a logistics hub with major air cargo facilities were realized in a bigger and more equipped single airport? Would this airport have created a more vital agricultural and seafood export industry?

Chances are..yes.

These are all the things I think would have been enhanced had the government spent taxpayer dollars differently. But that doesn't mean the ship has sailed. The longer term and broader impact of investing in this would still have significant ROI, more than what we've seen from spending to date - both on the two airports AND other ad-hoc initiatives to drive the economy. If we've been able to achieve this degree of success without this being implemented, just imagine what it could do to amplify this success and truly grow NB to become a Canadian powerhouse province!

[Pugsley]

I'm back with the last segment, the intermodal logistics hub concept. Located along the current rail lines into the US, I felt that this was a natural location for the new Aerotropolis. In this last section, I tried to paint a vision for a NEW gateway to North America, where Port Saint John would feed a hub of warehouses, trucking firms, and a new inland rail container logistics park that would take inbound freight and distribute it abroad by rail, truck, and air.

It would also, as a spinoff, be a catalyst for export and new industry development. Being the new export gateway for fresh seafood, produce, and more. The argument here was that by building infrastructure to quickly and cost-effectively transfer goods onward to new markets, the local economy would also benefit as the new logistics hub would make the establishment of new export-focused industries more enticing.

Much like the passenger terminal model, where it acts as a hub to connect passengers and by such opens up new direct access for locals and businesses, the new logistics park and intermodal facility would have the same spin-off benefits.

Basically, the strategic focus on the transfer of goods, military personnel, and passengers through the airport complex would justify the spend and support the spin-off economic benefits from new industries, commercial activities, residential construction, and more.

Well, that's it for now. Here you go...

[Pugsley]

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[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Thanks for updating this again Puglsey. You’ve put a lot of work into this and it shows.


I can’t imagine you’d go through all this effort if you didn’t think there remained an economic case for the combined airport.


What would you say to the naysayers who think we’ve already sunk too much money into YFC and YSJ to spend even more constructing a new, combined airport… what could be done with YFC and YSJ so all those millions invested into them already aren’t wasted?

So, the mythical NB Int'l Airport is going to attract BA, KLM, AF; but YHZ is not able to? Please explain how a smaller airport will attract these foreign carriers and routes, while YHZ which is the Atlantic air hub cannot.

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by Ozabald

So, the mythical NB Int'l Airport is going to attract BA, KLM, AF; but YHZ is not able to? Please explain how a smaller airport will attract these foreign carriers and routes, while YHZ which is the Atlantic air hub cannot.

Did you read any of the content in the above posts? Or just the last one? Read it first, it explains the model. Technically YHZ could do the same, but this was what was key for this proposal being a success in NB.

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

Did you read any of the content in the above posts? Or just the last one? Read it first, it explains the model. Technically YHZ could do the same, but this was what was key for this proposal being a success in NB.

Cargo traffic does not necessarily translate into passenger traffic and routes. Look at Anchorage (ANC). It's the largest airport in the US for cargo traffic; but outside of seasonal (summer) flights to Frankfurt on Condor and Discover; and Air Canada seasonal one daily flight to Vancouver for cruise traffic, that's it for international service to ANC. On the domestic side, much of the passenger service is seasonal. On the cargo side, ANC is served by international carriers such as: Air China, Cathay Pacific, Qantas, EVA Air, Etihad, Ethiopian, Korean Air, Singapore Airlines, etc.

I just cannot envision NB Int'l supplanting YHZ as the hub airport for Atlantic Canada. Everything you propose for the theoretical NB airport can be done at YHZ; given the infrastructure and facilities are in place.

It's an interesting concept you have developed. Just don't know how feasible it would be. Have you contacted any of the airlines you propose would service NB Int'l to gauge their interest and/or feasibility?

[mmmatt]

Pugsley, as someone who works in the air cargo industry I can appreciate the time and efforts you have put into this presentation however I must say it's a bit pie-in-the-sky.

YHZ and YQM are well established air cargo hubs and this is not a massive market, much of the air courier business (Puro/FedEx/UPS etc) is centered in YQM because of the central Maritime location and ease of access to all points by highway, there is also a seafood and aerospace market shipping lots. YHZ has Clearwater and other major seafood players in addition to a large manufacturing and aerospace sector along with some of the courier companies secondary locations.

As noted previously there is not a great deal of synergy between air and rail/sea...they are both logistics but a different universe entirely, one is all about speed and the others are about value, both important but there is not a lot of overlap...for example nobody is going to ship a metric tonne of potash or 10,000 barrels of oil by air...just the same as nobody is sending perishable seafood, medicine, AOG aircraft parts, last minute wedding dresses, passports and plant down parts by rail/sea. To be clear, I'm not saying there is NO connection, just that it is minimal.

If there was a big synergy between sea and air YHZ would already capitalize on that being the largest for both in our region and again, there is minimal connection between these two segments in Halifax.

I think in a perfect world if we could go back and re-write history a combined YFC/YSJ makes a ton of sense compared to what we have now and it would certainly be more successful than the two of them are separate...good luck taking away either one of them though, political suicide for anyone who would try, there is a lot of local pride in having an airport linked to your city...almost like a combined-market sports team, it's harder for people to rally around it.

PS - The Irving hangars at YSJ are the cleanest commercial buildings I have ever stepped foot in! They would fight this tooth and nail as well and you know how much sway they have LOL

[MonctonRad]

Agree 100%.

This was apparently Pugsley's thesis, and, to my eye, he did a bang up job on the presentation. He should be congratulated.

In the real world though, the ship has already sailed. Both SJ and Freddy have their airports, and there is no way they will give them up. There is too much civic pride. There is also no political will on the provincial level either. Such a sea change would be well over a billion dollars, and I'm sure there would be no interest in paying for this.

As you say, if we could recreate a tabula rasa, and start over, in a perfect world, under modern circumstances, a combined SJ/Freddy airport would make a lot of sense. But, in the real world, the die has been cast decades ago, and no one would champion this project now.

It is a great thought experiment though!

[mmmatt]

^
Absolutely, Pugsley has created a very impressive thesis and it has given us a lot to think and talk about as well. Bonne job

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by mmmatt

Pugsley, as someone who works in the air cargo industry I can appreciate the time and efforts you have put into this presentation however I must say it's a bit pie-in-the-sky.

YHZ and YQM are well established air cargo hubs and this is not a massive market, much of the air courier business (Puro/FedEx/UPS etc) is centered in YQM because of the central Maritime location and ease of access to all points by highway, there is also a seafood and aerospace market shipping lots. YHZ has Clearwater and other major seafood players in addition to a large manufacturing and aerospace sector along with some of the courier companies secondary locations.

As noted previously there is not a great deal of synergy between air and rail/sea...they are both logistics but a different universe entirely, one is all about speed and the others are about value, both important but there is not a lot of overlap...for example nobody is going to ship a metric tonne of potash or 10,000 barrels of oil by air...just the same as nobody is sending perishable seafood, medicine, AOG aircraft parts, last minute wedding dresses, passports and plant down parts by rail/sea. To be clear, I'm not saying there is NO connection, just that it is minimal.

If there was a big synergy between sea and air YHZ would already capitalize on that being the largest for both in our region and again, there is minimal connection between these two segments in Halifax.

I think in a perfect world if we could go back and re-write history a combined YFC/YSJ makes a ton of sense compared to what we have now and it would certainly be more successful than the two of them are separate...good luck taking away either one of them though, political suicide for anyone who would try, there is a lot of local pride in having an airport linked to your city...almost like a combined-market sports team, it's harder for people to rally around it.

PS - The Irving hangars at YSJ are the cleanest commercial buildings I have ever stepped foot in! They would fight this tooth and nail as well and you know how much sway they have LOL

Why would they fight it tooth and nail? This combined airport would not shutdown YSJ, it would allow YSJ to shift focus to cargo and private aviation. Saint John’s Port could end up surpassing Halifax’s Port in the next 10 years in terms of cargo traffic, there’s absolutely a case to be made for YSJ to remain relevant. Saint John’s a lot closer to the seafood industry than Moncton and Fredericton is, is it not? It’s not just about synergy between rail and sea, it’s about comparative advantage, and Saint John has a comparative advantage to both Moncton and Fredericton when it comes to the seafood industry. Moreover, Fredericton has a comparative advantage to both Saint John and Moncton being located further east on the trans Canada highway. So while you’re right there’s not a whole lot of synergy between air, rail, and sea, there is synergy between air and highways. NB has a comparable population to Nova Scotia, and is closer to both Quebec and Ontario, and the entire Northeastern United States.

I don’t think it’s entirely pie in the sky, or too late, it’s a potential multi billion dollar that would be transformational for both cities. Too often in NB, we don’t see the forest through the trees! Getting hung up on the multi millions invested in YSJ and more-so YFC as a reason to not support a potential multi billion dollar idea is really short sighted, and missing out on the bigger picture.

There’s very few solutions to increase flights and decrease cost of routes servicing YSJ and YFC on consumers, other than government subsidies, and this idea to invest in a combined airport for Fredericton and Saint John just happens to be one of them! It’s a logical idea that should have happened decades ago, but that not happening decades ago is not a valid reason to oppose it into the future.

AFAIK, the last report that studies airport sharing in NB only looked at and shot down the combined airport for all three cities around Sussex that people love to bring up, but doesn’t actually make that much sense when you explore it deeper, as it’s just slightly too far from all three major cities. However, the midway point between Saint John and Fredericton is absolutely not too far for it to be viable. The KV crowd might not like it, but it would also be the impetus for bridges across the Kingston Peninsula, which would be good for connecting KV with Fredericton… something also which should have happened decades ago.

At the very least, I think this proposal should attract some attention and deserve some actual study from both the provincial and federal governments.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Agree 100%.

This was apparently Pugsley's thesis, and, to my eye, he did a bang up job on the presentation. He should be congratulated.

In the real world though, the ship has already sailed. Both SJ and Freddy have their airports, and there is no way they will give them up. There is too much civic pride. There is also no political will on the provincial level either. Such a sea change would be well over a billion dollars, and I'm sure there would be no interest in paying for this.

As you say, if we could recreate a tabula rasa, and start over, in a perfect world, under modern circumstances, a combined SJ/Freddy airport would make a lot of sense. But, in the real world, the die has been cast decades ago, and no one would champion this project now.

It is a great thought experiment though!

Absolutely, big ups to Pugsley for putting together this proposal, it well thought out, highly detailed, and still as relevant in 2024 as it was when they wrote it back in 1996.

Like I said above, MonctonRad, this is such a typical New Brunswick attitude of not seeing the forest through the trees. The notion that the tens of millions invested in YSJ and YFC means “the ship has sailed” is such a short sighted way of looking at it. Yeah, you’ll likely be dead or an exceptionally old man before a proposal like this actually ever became reality, but we’re talking about an idea with potential multi billion dollar potential for the NB economy, but you think there’s no political will at the provincial level for such transformational ideas? I beg to differ… a penny pincher, deficit hawk like Higgs might not ever support such a great idea, but let’s not speak for Susan Holt’s Liberals quite yet… she is from Fredericton, and as crazy as this sounds, ( as I just looked it up), there hasn’t been a premier representing anywhere close to Fredericton area since 1911, and even crazier… there’s never been a premier directly representing the city of Fredericton, in the history of NB, ever!

(Look at the list of premiers and take note of their ridings)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._New_Brunswick

As for the civic pride piece… what pride is there in the Fredericton and Saint John airports? They are both really small, really inadequate airports, especially YSJ. There’s absolutely nothing to be proud about with either airport, and it speaks volumes that people from both Saint John and Fredericton will often go to Moncton for cheaper flights, in spite of the extra costs involving driving there and dealing with parking fees. Of course you love this as you’re very psyched on Moncton, but those of us in Saint John and Fredericton don’t love this at all. The combined CMA populations of Saint John and Fredericton which would be directly served by this airport far outweighs Greater Moncton, and will continue to outweigh the population of Greater Moncton for the foreseeable future.

No matter how many tired cliches you decide to throw out there about ships having sailed, dies being cast, or clean slates, they don’t change the fact that this is an idea with multi billion dollar economic potential, which you’re getting hung up about the tens of millions recently invested in YFC and YSJ, which wouldn’t all go to waste anyways. There’s far greater examples of waste found within the government of NB or federal government than what this proposal would cost tax payers over the long term, but I’ll leave those examples for the politics thread.

Pugsley’s proposal isn’t perfect… no proposal is, but at least it’s a viable long term strategy that gets at the root of a problem that impacts both Fredericton and Saint John, that problem being that both cities are currently being served by inadequately small airports that simply cannot compete with YQM, let a lone YHZ. The provinces of NB and NS are actually quite comparable demographically, yet, Halifax Stanfield alone serves over 4 million passengers a year, while all of NB’s airports combined don’t even serve 1.5 million passengers combined, iirc, though please correct me if that number is off.

Probably the thing I disagree with the most regarding this proposal is the name. Turnbull Airport isn’t a great name, imo. Yeah, I understand Turnbull was an aviation pioneer and all that, and history is great, but I think a statue or plaque honouring him would suffice. New Brunswick International Airport or even New Brunswick Capital Region International Airport are far more descriptive names, and directly get at the civic pride piece you brought up. Ultimately, all that really matter is the airport code. While, YNB is unfortunately taken, it’s not mandatory that the airport code start with Y, is it? If so YFS and YSF could probably be negotiated away from the positively tiny airports that currently use them today in the NWT, and SK. If Y isn’t mandatory, there’s other airport codes that could be used that feature NB in the code, and that’s really what matters the most, imo.

Cities take enormous pride in their airport codes, and while YSJ is one of the best in the entire country in that regard, our airport is complete crap, and nothing to be proud about (no offence to the crew at YSJ who do the best they can with a very limited budget and resources.) It’s also well known that Saint John and Fredericton have a bit of a competitive rivalry to say the least, and residents of each city have a lot of stereotypes that they hold about the other city, to the point where you might say they don’t really get a long, or like each other. Sharing an airport code and airport for that matter, could go a long way in terms of bridging that divide, resentment, and negative stereotypes between the two cities, and ultimately give both cities something to absolutely be proud of, together.

Again, it’s an idea with multi billion dollar potential, i thinks it’s extremely short sighted to not at least devote further study to the idea. The tens of millions already invested in YSJ and YFC wouldn’t necessarily be wasted, as many of those passenger focussed investments could be repurposed for the combined airport, while the runway and hangar space would remain useful for YSJ and YFC’s cargo operations and private aviation, which would still operate out of the airport. I’m not surprised you’re opposed to the idea since it wouldn’t be one that directly benefits Moncton, but if you think about it, there’s probably a lot of indirect way it would impact Moncton, the most obvious of which, imo, being that it would increase competition, which should eventually mean more competitive pricing, and a greater variety of routes between both airports. Too often in politics, short term priorities designed to keep a ruling party in power are prioritized over long term goals that would benefit the long term future. Just for once, I’d like to see New Brunswickers support the latter, and believe in the power of big ideas that bring about positive change.

No great business or state ever got anywhere without taking risks… and imo, this combined airport idea is absolutely an idea worth the risk, and at the very least, is worth further study.