Federal Government & Politics II

[theman23]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Trudeau leading the third party to 10 years of government doesn't seem like a quick fix.

The idea Conservatives are guaranteed a majority seems questionable. There is a lot of structural disadvanatges they have. There are a lot of soft Conservatives in that 42% and NDP/Liberals still have a combined 40% so any consolidation even regionally could hold them to a minority.

We didn't see this consolidation work out in Toronto St-Pauls during the byelection, in contrast to the last two provincial elections where it flipped to ONDP after the OLPC collapse. I suspect a lot of <5% margins of victory in the GTA for the CPC in 2025. Thanks to FPTP, that'll be enough.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Trudeau leading the third party to 10 years of government doesn't seem like a quick fix.

The idea Conservatives are guaranteed a majority seems questionable. There is a lot of structural disadvanatges they have. There are a lot of soft Conservatives in that 42% and NDP/Liberals still have a combined 40% so any consolidation even regionally could hold them to a minority.

Liberal votes are very efficient in the sense that in a "normal" election they win a large number of seats (particularly in the GTA) by a relatively small margin, which is why they have lost the popular vote for two elections but still won a plurality of seats. The problem with this efficiency is why their support falls below "normal" they lose large numbers of seats by relatively small margins. Unless there is a dramatic change in polling before the election or unless the polling is dramatically wrong, the Liberals are on track to lose a lot of seats.

[Dartguard]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Liberal votes are very efficient in the sense that in a "normal" election they win a large number of seats (particularly in the GTA) by a relatively small margin, which is why they have lost the popular vote for two elections but still won a plurality of seats. The problem with this efficiency is why their support falls below "normal" they lose large numbers of seats by relatively small margins. Unless there is a dramatic change in polling before the election or unless the polling is dramatically wrong, the Liberals are on track to lose a lot of seats.

Perhaps as many as 55 in Ontario alone.

[SteelTown]

I just finished applying for my parents' dental care plan; the application opens today. They are both self-employed and disabled, so they have never had dental coverage before.

This will significantly boost my parents' quality of life and bring some relief.

[casper]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Trudeau leading the third party to 10 years of government doesn't seem like a quick fix.

The idea Conservatives are guaranteed a majority seems questionable. There is a lot of structural disadvanatges they have. There are a lot of soft Conservatives in that 42% and NDP/Liberals still have a combined 40% so any consolidation even regionally could hold them to a minority.

Yes, agreed.

Originally Posted by acottawa

Liberal votes are very efficient in the sense that in a "normal" election they win a large number of seats (particularly in the GTA) by a relatively small margin, which is why they have lost the popular vote for two elections but still won a plurality of seats. The problem with this efficiency is why their support falls below "normal" they lose large numbers of seats by relatively small margins. Unless there is a dramatic change in polling before the election or unless the polling is dramatically wrong, the Liberals are on track to lose a lot of seats.

It is quite disappointing the Liberal party does not look to be taking action.

Good reason for replacing JT.

The Liberal platform is just so popular that only a few minor corrections and a new leader and they are back on track.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

Yes, agreed.



It is quite disappointing the Liberal party does not look to be taking action.

Good reason for replacing JT.

The Liberal platform is just so popular that only a few minor corrections and a new leader and they are back on track.

I think they are realistic that replacing him is unlikely to go well. Top candidates may bow out. The remaing will fight to the death and the winner won't have Trudeau's base in Quebec and gravitas to potentially win the debate and make it competitive again.

The platform is not popular. Each goodie might be popular but the swing voters want less spending and blame all the problems we have on spending so all want someone else's spending cut.

[shreddog]

Can’t believe Saj is playing the racist card. So sad

Sajjan instructed special forces to rescue Afghan Sikhs during fall of Kabul

Then-defence minister Harjit Sajjan instructed Canadian special forces to rescue about 225 Afghan Sikhs after the Taliban takeover in August, 2021, in an operation that three military sources say took resources away from getting Canadian citizens and Afghans linked to Canada on final evacuation flights out of Kabul.
...
“There was such furious anger that the last 24 hours were solely dedicated to getting the Sikhs out. We were unsuccessful.”
...
Retired lieutenant-general Mike Day, who once headed JTF-2 and Canadian Special Operations Forces Command, said he found it difficult to “understand or see a rational explanation why this group of Sikhs would have been of sufficient priority at the cost of other groups who likely had a greater claim on Canadian support.”
...
“I can only surmise that if I did not wear a turban no one would question whether my actions were appropriate.”

Link

[theman23]

Originally Posted by casper

Yes, agreed.



It is quite disappointing the Liberal party does not look to be taking action.

Good reason for replacing JT.

The Liberal platform is just so popular that only a few minor corrections and a new leader and they are back on track.

"so popular"....but drop further in the polls with every policy announcement they make. Aren't they 20 points back now?

National Post: Most millennials, gen Z oppose more government spending, higher carbon taxes: poll. Doesn't really seem like their latest budget has convinced the very people it was supposed to help.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Can’t believe Saj is playing the racist card. So sad


Link

Afghan Sikhs are a minority group that the Taliban have oppressed and brutalized substantially. That said, prioritizing them over Canadian entitled persons like our interpreters is beyond unacceptable. So many vets suffered moral injuries thanks to not being able to get their Afghan aides out. Ridiculous. This should be investigated.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Afghan Sikhs are a minority group that the Taliban have oppressed and brutalized substantially. That said, prioritizing them over Canadian entitled persons like our interpreters is beyond unacceptable. So many vets suffered moral injuries thanks to not being able to get their Afghan aides out. Ridiculous. This should be investigated.

Agreed. Canada had a duty to protect our Afghan aides. The Taliban would view them as collaborators (or worse). The fact we did not protect them is embarrassing and humiliating. Heads should roll........

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Can’t believe Saj is playing the racist card. So sad


Link

"Diversity is Our Strength"!

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by shreddog

Can’t believe Saj is playing the racist card. So sad


Link

Well if Ed Fast or Andrew Sheer were asking Canada to intervene and protect Christians would they get criticized. I mean if it's true it interfered in getting Can Cits out well of course but otherwise it seems fine. We priortiized getting women and LGBT folks out and I'm sure lots of those making decisions were also from those groups.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Well if Ed Fast or Andrew Sheer were asking Canada to intervene and protect Christians would they get criticized. I mean if it's true it interfered in getting Can Cits out well of course but otherwise it seems fine. We priortiized getting women and LGBT folks out and I'm sure lots of those making decisions were also from those groups.

You seem to have missed the part where he chose to prioritize these refugees over those who risked their lives to work with Canadians and who our troops highly valued.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Djeffery

All those 84 or whatever candidates managed to get at least 2 votes. Except Felix-Antoine Hamel, who didn't get any votes. Did this guy not even vote, or voted for someone else? lol

Well here's your answer to that question: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/fir...loss-1.7247339

[Truenorth00]

Nothing shows competency and a genuine interest in defence and foreign policy like not naming a successor for the head of the armed forces less than a month before the current one retires.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/way...mand-1.7247961

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You seem to have missed the part where he chose to prioritize these refugees over those who risked their lives to work with Canadians and who our troops highly valued.

The Sikhs had a place to go the ones who helped us didn't. Now you can argue we should have just let them in un-screened but that's different. It took months for us to decide how to do it.

[casper]

Originally Posted by theman23

"so popular"....but drop further in the polls with every policy announcement they make. Aren't they 20 points back now?

National Post: Most millennials, gen Z oppose more government spending, higher carbon taxes: poll. Doesn't really seem like their latest budget has convinced the very people it was supposed to help.

I think on the big ticket items most in those demographics support action on climate change, keeping down inflation, increased spending on housing, healthcare and attracting green industry to Canada.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by theman23

"so popular"....but drop further in the polls with every policy announcement they make. Aren't they 20 points back now?

National Post: Most millennials, gen Z oppose more government spending, higher carbon taxes: poll. Doesn't really seem like their latest budget has convinced the very people it was supposed to help.

There's a subtext here the National Post is avoiding. Young people don't like the spending because it's mostly not helping them. This government drops a few billion spread out over several years for housing. And then reverses the Harper era commitment to raise OAS age, a commitment which adds several billion per year. Don't have to be a CA to see that this is an inherently unfair arrangement, regardless of the spin. And while young people are probably not reading the budget line by line, they feel the effects of these policy imbalances everyday. The only question now is whether Poilievre is going to govern slightly more fairly or he's going to perpetuate the imbalance in other ways. In which case, 2029 will be spicy.

[VANRIDERFAN]

Just listened to Paul Well's short book "Justin Trudeau on the ropes"



Pretty impressive how by 2018 JT totally abandoned things that were sacrosanct in 2015.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

There's a subtext here the National Post is avoiding. Young people don't like the spending because it's mostly not helping them. This government drops a few billion spread out over several years for housing. And then reverses the Harper era commitment to raise OAS age, a commitment which adds several billion per year. Don't have to be a CA to see that this is an inherently unfair arrangement, regardless of the spin. And while young people are probably not reading the budget line by line, they feel the effects of these policy imbalances everyday. The only question now is whether Poilievre is going to govern slightly more fairly or he's going to perpetuate the imbalance in other ways. In which case, 2029 will be spicy.

There is absolutely zero chance the rebalancing is more spending for millenials. I doubt Canada is the first to launch some kind of generational tax advanatage. I guess income splitting for those with kids would would be idealogically consistent and help some millenials. I don't think they care much about OAS. Blaming everything on Trudeau does mean you need to fix it at least for some people.