Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

It's pretty interesting that our election will be taking place at roughly the same time as the US Presidential election... and I wonder that extra interest in politics could impact people's vote choices.

A lot of Blaine Higgs's far right base probably loves Trump, but many centrist PC voters don't like him at all... since there's not a huge difference between the NB Liberals and the PC's, I think many people who voted PC last time, but don't care for the social conservatism issues trans rights in public schools that Higgs seems to want to make the election about, will vote for Holt's Liberals.

If Holt and her term take the adage of James Carville seriously that "it's the economy stupid", and take inspiration from "the war room" campaign that won the Presidency for Clinton in 1992... I think Holt and the Liberals will win a solid majority.

They just really need to stick to the issues that people care about the most, and don't let Higgs dictate the issues that should decide the next election.

For the most part, I think she and her party have done a pretty good job to not get sucked into Higgs's plan to make the campaign about divisive social issues, and his attempts to label her as a "Trudeau Liberal" aren't really sticking. I still think they could still improve upon the messaging surrounding their party's platform, better communicate in simpler terms what their party stands for, and clarify what really differentiates them from both the PC's and Greens.

Imo, it's her election to lose at this point... many New Brunswickers want a change and have become disillusioned with Higgs.

I think a Liberal Minority supported by the Greens is still our best chance for more substantive, positive changes in the province, but I think a minority scenario is unlikely to happen, as they are extremely rare at the provincial level, especially in smaller provinces like NB. Would sure be a spectacle to watch unfold, though!

[sailor734]

Holt also has to deal with the fact that any government she forms will have a disproportionately large number of Francophone MLA's.

I certainly wouldn't put it past Higgs and his handlers to employ some dog whistle "anti Acadian/UdM Mafia"/remember Gallant" type politics. For some in NB the Anglo/French divide is very real and the perceived grievances are never far from the surface. Painting Holt as another Gallant who would be under the influence of the SANB could well resonate with these voters.

Having said that I think there is a good chance Higgs has moved too far right for enough moderate PC's that he may well go down to defeat.

It really depends on if his base support is spread out among enough southern and western ridings.

Interesting times for political junkies.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Wondering if the Toronto By election results are changing how you look at some of the (supposedly) safe or likely Liberal ridings in the Maritimes? CPC won by just over 1.5% while polling going into the vote had them behind by something like 4 or 5 points. Shy Liberals?

Moncton-Dieppe and Madawaska-Restigouche maybe (both had CPC MPs under Harper, albeit when the former included Riverview), Beausejour and Acadie-Bathurst, never.

PEI is a black box, who knows what'll happen there. No point in discussing PEI seats until they vote.

Cape Spear and Halifax West?

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Moncton-Dieppe and Madawaska-Restigouche maybe (both had CPC MPs under Harper, albeit when the former included Riverview), Beausejour and Acadie-Bathurst, never.

PEI is a black box, who knows what'll happen there. No point in discussing PEI seats until they vote.

Cape Spear and Halifax West?

NDP might have a shot in Halifax and St. John's East.

I'm actually kind of surprised the Liberal unpopularity hasn't resulted in more NDP support. I guess there is absolutely no doubt that Jagmeet Singh is no Jack Layton.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I'm actually kind of surprised the Liberal unpopularity hasn't resulted in more NDP support. I guess there is absolutely no doubt that Jagmeet Singh is no Jack Layton.

Many Liberals are centrists, and would throw up in their mouths a little if they ever contemplated a vote for Jagmeet.

The NDP influenced leftward drift of the Liberal party is causing many centrists great discomfort. This is why centrist Liberals are contemplating a vote for the CPC instead.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Moncton-Dieppe and Madawaska-Restigouche maybe (both had CPC MPs under Harper, albeit when the former included Riverview), Beausejour and Acadie-Bathurst, never.

PEI is a black box, who knows what'll happen there. No point in discussing PEI seats until they vote.

Cape Spear and Halifax West?

Cape Spear I would think is still relatively safe for the Liberals once you consider Seamus' personal likability among residents.

St. John's East on the other hand....the CPC have a fairly popular nominee in Dave Brazil. That could end up being a tight three-way race.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly

Cape Spear I would think is still relatively safe for the Liberals once you consider Seamus' personal likability among residents.

St. John's East on the other hand....the CPC have a fairly popular nominee in Dave Brazil. That could end up being a tight three-way race.

I think you make a good point. The Liberals still standing after the next election with either be in seats that would elect a fence post if it was painted red or MP's who are very good at retail politics and have a very strong personal appeal.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Holt also has to deal with the fact that any government she forms will have a disproportionately large number of Francophone MLA's.

I certainly wouldn't put it past Higgs and his handlers to employ some dog whistle "anti Acadian/UdM Mafia"/remember Gallant" type politics. For some in NB the Anglo/French divide is very real and the perceived grievances are never far from the surface. Painting Holt as another Gallant who would be under the influence of the SANB could well resonate with these voters.

Having said that I think there is a good chance Higgs has moved too far right for enough moderate PC's that he may well go down to defeat.

It really depends on if his base support is spread out among enough southern and western ridings.

Interesting times for political junkies.

He's already trying to paint her a crucial figure in the Gallant government, which she just absoutely wasn't.

If a majority of Saint John voters let the MLA from Quispamsis dupe them into voting for his party again with those dog whistles, when he clearly doesn't give a crap about our city... it'll just be a sad reflection of how easily some people willingly vote against their own self interest, because *derp* the French! I think bilingualism really can be a bit much sometimes, especially here in 95% anglophone Saint John

But has Higgs really done anything to lessen impacts of it in terms of applying for government jobs, etc? Afiak, he really hasn't done anything in that regard, and the province is every bit as bilingual under Higgs as it was under Gallant.

Will definitely be a very interesting election. Hopefully, retro 2018, to make it REALLY interesting

[NB_ExistsToo]

It's just going to come down to what usually happens, people won't be voting for Liberals, they'll be voting against Higgs. I think Higgs should have pushed the election last year when he hinted at it, I figure he would have had a good chance at another majority then.

Now by the time elections start, he's going to have to deal the traveling nurse contract "he/she said" blame game. Then I imagine the Fredericton Judicial costs will come out, which is going to be more expensive, the question is, how much more compared to when he first cancelled the project?