Milwaukee's Mayor Johnson wants 1 million residents

[PanhandleBledsoe]

I think it's tough for Milwaukee to grow when Chicago and Minny-St. Paul are affordable and have room to build more. Milwaukee's not going to beat them on Fortune 500 companies, attractions, nightlife, or social network effects any time soon. If they can't offer significantly better affordability either, it's hard to win that battle for new residents. Of course, that could change in the next 20 or so years.

All of those cities are fighting the general migration patterns now, too. But I do think that housing costs and climate are going to allow the midwest to start growing slightly faster than the comparable sunbelt cities sometime in the 2040s. Laying the groundwork now with zoning reform would be great. And it seems like Milwaukee's been doing what they reasonably can on transit for a small metro with little state support.

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I think the better question is why so many supermarkets have parking lots in places where they don't necessarily need to have them? New York is big enough to have supermarkets that cater almost exclusively to NYC, but the rest of the country is dominated by chains that try to use a standard blueprint as much as possible, whether catering to city or suburb. I suspect that is at least part of the reason we are conditioned to think supermarkets can't survive without dedicated parking, even in places like downtown Chicago.

To me, the answer is obvious. Reach. Why would a grocery store, unless required to do so, open without parking? You severely limit your customer base if no parking is offered. Seems like a no brainer to me that a full service grocery store would want to maximize the number of customers to draw from.

[Crawford]

But you're also using high-value space for temporary private vehicle storage. You're also introducing additional complications, like policing the lot usage. In most markets, this is a worthwhile use, but not all.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I think the better question is why so many supermarkets have parking lots in places where they don't necessarily need to have them? New York is big enough to have supermarkets that cater almost exclusively to NYC, but the rest of the country is dominated by chains that try to use a standard blueprint as much as possible, whether catering to city or suburb. I suspect that is at least part of the reason we are conditioned to think supermarkets can't survive without dedicated parking, even in places like downtown Chicago.

You're making assumptions about something you have no knowledge of. Even the basics I and others have explained seem to have washed right over you...stuff like parking's role in drawing the big-ticket customers, and drawing the people who don't live within an easy walk.

Per Crawford, even NYC doesn't seem to have supermarkets over 20,000 sf without parking. (Below that size, it's hard to call something a "supermarket," though it's a gray area.) This may be primarily about the spaces available, but the lack of even a few examples of larger stores suggests it's also about walk radii.

Some stores have tried. Downtown Seattle has a 20,000 sf PCC (local natural-foods grocery) in the CBD, with some parking in the building (an office/residential tower) but it's closing. They say they've done well with lunches and small purchases but not the big purchases they need. The building's parking isn't convenient to the store to my knowledge (and no cart system?). We also had a 17,000 sf IGA with no parking but it closed after a City Target opened a block away with its own garage. All three are an easy walk from the Pike Place Market, which has a couple garages next door.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

You're making assumptions about something you have no knowledge of. Even the basics I and others have explained seem to have washed right over you...stuff like parking's role in drawing the big-ticket customers, and drawing the people who don't live within an easy walk.

Per Crawford, even NYC doesn't seem to have supermarkets over 20,000 sf without parking. (Below that size, it's hard to call something a "supermarket," though it's a gray area.) This may be primarily about the spaces available, but the lack of even a few examples of larger stores suggests it's also about walk radii.

Some stores have tried. Downtown Seattle has a 20,000 sf PCC (local natural-foods grocery) in the CBD, with some parking in the building (an office/residential tower) but it's closing. They say they've done well with lunches and small purchases but not the big purchases they need. The building's parking isn't convenient to the store to my knowledge (and no cart system?). We also had a 17,000 sf IGA with no parking but it closed after a City Target opened a block away with its own garage. All three are an easy walk from the Pike Place Market, which has a couple garages next door.

Lol. This all started because you were trying to tell me about the behavior of shoppers where I live. You were absurdly wrong, but I didn't make a big deal about it. I just demonstrated that you were wrong.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by mhays

Per Crawford, even NYC doesn't seem to have supermarkets over 20,000 sf without parking. (Below that size, it's hard to call something a "supermarket," though it's a gray area.)

There are definitely supermarkets of all sizes w/o parking. For example, Manhattan has 14 Whole Foods, all large (I believe all but one over 40,000 sf), none with parking. In Manhattan and most Manhattan-adjacent areas, supermarkets of all sizes have no parking.

My point is that there are barely any such supermarkets of that size outside of central districts with large, newer buildings. That isn't how New Yorkers generally shop. A typical neighborhood might have 10 small supermarkets instead of 2-3 bigger supermarkets, as typical in other cities. Whole Foods, and now Wegmans (and rumored Stew Leonard's), are huge size outliers.

Even somewhere central, dense and with newer buildings, like the Upper East Side, will have far more smaller supermarkets as opposed to the chain biggies. UES has Eli's Manhattan, Agata & Valentina, Gourmet Garage, Butterfield Market, Fairway, Citarella, Grace's Marketplace, Westside Market, Morton Williams, Gristedes, D'Agostino, Key Food, C-Town, etc.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

There are definitely supermarkets of all sizes w/o parking. For example, Manhattan has 14 Whole Foods, all large (I believe all but one over 40,000 sf), none with parking. In Manhattan and most Manhattan-adjacent areas, supermarkets of all sizes have no parking.

My point is that there are barely any such supermarkets of that size outside of central districts with large, newer buildings. That isn't how New Yorkers generally shop. A typical neighborhood might have 10 small supermarkets instead of 2-3 bigger supermarkets, as typical in other cities. Whole Foods, and now Wegmans (and rumored Stew Leonard's), are huge size outliers.

Even somewhere central, dense and with newer buildings, like the Upper East Side, will have far more smaller supermarkets as opposed to the chain biggies. UES has Eli's Manhattan, Agata & Valentina, Gourmet Garage, Butterfield Market, Fairway, Citarella, Grace's Marketplace, Westside Market, Morton Williams, Gristedes, D'Agostino, Key Food, C-Town, etc.

Exactly.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by Crawford

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6164...8192?entry=ttu

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6281...8192?entry=ttu

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6320...8192?entry=ttu

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6221...8192?entry=ttu

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6240...8192?entry=ttu

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6291...8192?entry=ttu

But I agree this doesn't translate nationally, even at equivalent densities. NYC is different, and this is a legacy difference. New Yorkers, on average, shop at smaller markets, getting less stuff per visit, and likely more apt to use greengrocers, butchers and other specialty stores.

These look similar in size to some SF grocery stores I've seen. Also with no parking. I'm sure a lot of other cities have similar sized "super" markets as well.

I guess it depends on what your definition of supermarket is.

What is the difference between a grocery store, a market, a small supermarket, and a supermarket? I'm guessing they are used interchangeably. If there's a criteria for a certain square footage then some of these may not qualify.

https://maps.app.goo.gl/8kHDXfXuMLN8QUoP9

https://maps.app.goo.gl/7nXuqDagTxT6iXee7

https://maps.app.goo.gl/NuJZif2hFwEaPKTN8

https://maps.app.goo.gl/UhxWdnSNErivoAAp6

https://maps.app.goo.gl/wF2bstGotGv3En2E8

https://maps.app.goo.gl/YH1ftDsxqs51Dq137

https://maps.app.goo.gl/xXtv13ESzg75NqP19

https://maps.app.goo.gl/6xbsbz1soat3CtWA6

https://maps.app.goo.gl/Mjjp9kSZyePCz2ScA

https://maps.app.goo.gl/F1AgYTnykf9gYYpZ8

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by homebucket

These look similar in size to some SF grocery stores I've seen. Also with no parking. I guess it depends on what your definition of supermarket is.

What is the difference between a grocery store, a market, a small supermarket, and a supermarket?

https://maps.app.goo.gl/8kHDXfXuMLN8QUoP9

https://maps.app.goo.gl/7nXuqDagTxT6iXee7

https://maps.app.goo.gl/NuJZif2hFwEaPKTN8

https://maps.app.goo.gl/UhxWdnSNErivoAAp6

https://maps.app.goo.gl/wF2bstGotGv3En2E8

https://maps.app.goo.gl/YH1ftDsxqs51Dq137

https://maps.app.goo.gl/xXtv13ESzg75NqP19

https://maps.app.goo.gl/6xbsbz1soat3CtWA6

https://maps.app.goo.gl/Mjjp9kSZyePCz2ScA

https://maps.app.goo.gl/F1AgYTnykf9gYYpZ8

The first one definitely seems like a supermarket since it has a meat counter. A few of them seem more like specialty markets or produce markets, which NYC also has in abundance.

[Randomguy34]

Originally Posted by PanhandleBledsoe

Laying the groundwork now with zoning reform would be great. And it seems like Milwaukee's been doing what they reasonably can on transit for a small metro with little state support.

Yeah, I asked my friends in Milwaukee their thoughts on the upzoning and they had similar thoughts. It'll be nice in the long term, but they don't expect a noticeable population increase anytime this decade from this

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by homebucket

I guess it depends on what your definition of supermarket is.

To me, a "supermarket" is a large grocery store with a full array of food and housekeeping items, with specialty departments including, at a minimum, fresh produce, a butcher, deli, and bakery (coastal supermarkets also always have a fresh seafood department, but here in the Midwest, those can be hit or miss for obvious reasons).

Outside of NYC, and perhaps a couple other rarified pockets of extreme density in a few other US cities, they are never found without parking in the US.


Anyway, "old city" Milwaukee (the original 50 sq. miles before the city annexed a bunch of suburban land in the '50s) currently has an average density of ~8,500 ppsm. Let's say this upzoning plan is enacted and for some miracle, it really takes off over the next two decades, allowing the "old city" to increase its housing unit count by 50% (which is extremely unlikely btw), we're still only talking about an average density 12,750 ppsm.

The supermarkets are still gonna have parking lots and people will still go to bowling alleys on frozen February nights.

It's NOT going to transform into fucking Brooklyn.


If anyone doubts this, just check out milwaukee's current densest area, the east side, with 11 contiguous census tracts ranging between 14,000 - 32,000 ppsm. It is served by two supermarkets, a Whole Foods and a Metro Market, both of which have large attached parking structures.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Crawford

But you're also using high-value space for temporary private vehicle storage. You're also introducing additional complications, like policing the lot usage. In most markets, this is a worthwhile use, but not all.

Well, the examples in downtown chicago validate parking at public parking garages (though perhaps the grocery store is part of the reason the garage exists, I don't know the history). There is also a Star Market like that in Cambridge, MA that I used to live close to.

But... speaking of Boston,I remember that there is a TJ's in Back Bay that I'm pretty sure has no parking:
https://www.google.com/maps/@42.3483...8192?entry=ttu (most of the store is underground)

[mhays]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Lol. This all started because you were trying to tell me about the behavior of shoppers where I live. You were absurdly wrong, but I didn't make a big deal about it. I just demonstrated that you were wrong.

Where? I drew a line (15 k/sm, 15 ksf EDIT 20 ksf) and you've come up with nothing. We never disagreed that smaller neighborhood stores without parking are common.

Crawford, I misread your post, and stand corrected about core NYC.

[mhays]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

Yeah, I asked my friends in Milwaukee their thoughts on the upzoning and they had similar thoughts. It'll be nice in the long term, but they don't expect a noticeable population increase anytime this decade from this

Aspirations in 2023 will need to be followed by an EIS process, then land use code updates in a couple years (guessing). Then projects will need to apply for land use and building permits. Even if the City tried to expedite individual projects before all that, I imagine they'd be vulnerable to appeal and delay. Basically I wouldn't expect much to complete before 2028. Then it would fill up over the following year. That suggests maybe a year of strong absorption potential by the 2030 census.

But will strong demand exist? Are there big economic development happenings? Or a surge in people moving in for affordability reasons? Or is this all hypothetical?

PS, if affordability is a strong reason, that's not going to help make projects pencil. The difficult reality is that fast citywide densification only works without subsidy in cities that can grow despite high prices.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by mhays

But will strong demand exist? Are there big economic development happenings? Or a surge in people moving in for affordability reasons?

Not really, to all three.

Allowing ADUs as-of-right in SFH districts is not going to magically lead to some massive 50% population increase in Milwaukee over the next couple decades.

But it's still a step in the right direction.

Originally Posted by PanhandleBledsoe

I think it's tough for Milwaukee to grow when Chicago and Minny-St. Paul are affordable and have room to build more.

Being only 80 miles south, Chicago is definitely a significant factor in the Milwaukee equation, but the Twin Cities are roughly 300 miles NW of the city. In the same overall general region, sure, but not really in the same neighborhood, so to speak.

In fact, the twin cities are probably the most isolated major metro area in the eastern half of the nation.

[Six Corners]

Originally Posted by PanhandleBledsoe

I think it's tough for Milwaukee to grow when Chicago and Minny-St. Paul are affordable and have room to build more. Milwaukee's not going to beat them on Fortune 500 companies, attractions, nightlife, or social network effects any time soon. If they can't offer significantly better affordability either, it's hard to win that battle for new residents. Of course, that could change in the next 20 or so years.

Milwaukee's advantage is that it is a lite alternative to Chicago. For those who like the city life to a point, Milwaukee offers a good metropolitan lifestyle, on the same giant lake as Chicago, but not as overwhelming as a giant city can be. And for when you do need that mega city time, Chicago is a quick 1.5 hour drive or train ride away.

[Randomguy34]

Looks like single-family zoning in Milwaukee might actually end this year.

The Growing MKE effort would make it legal citywide to develop accessory dwelling units, though hundreds of often century-old “granny flats” or “rear cottages” already exist. All neighborhoods would also see their zoning changed to allow duplexes, triplexes and townhomes developed without special approval.

Four-unit buildings would only be legalized in areas where multi-unit housing was historically permitted. Apartment buildings of approximately eight units would be allowed in areas where a variety of building types already exist.
....
A timeline embedded in the draft document suggests that the administration would like to see the plan adopted this summer and technical changes to the zoning code, which would require council approval, to be made in the months following.

https://urbanmilwaukee.com/2024/05/0...ion-residents/

Draft plan: https://urbanmilwaukee.com/wp-conten...2024-04-30.pdf

[Steely Dan]

Nice!

Build more housing units in cities everywhere!

[C.]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Nice!

Build more housing units in cities everywhere!

Indeed. We’re in a horrific housing crisis, and more cities should follow as a way to gradually increase density.

[Doady]

Duplex? As in semi-detached houses? Or unit above the other? That's already normal everywhere is it not? Same with townhouses.

Even with more lax zoning, Milwaukee has uphill battle to increase density when the Republican-controlled state legislature cut off funding to MCTS and resulted in massive decline in transit ridership.