YVR And Sea Island Developments Discussion II - Page 16

s211 · #**301** Posted **Jun 17, 2024, 6:31 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

AC stock is undervalued, and is a strong buy by analysts.

While almost all analysts have been predicting a $30/share price, at least two I know of are around $18 if not lower. That's a relatively new development.

s211 · #**302** Posted **Jun 19, 2024, 5:39 PM**

Hi everyone. Is there a simple source for me to find out what wide bodies Air Canada flies out of Vancouver to elsewhere in North America. At the moment, I only know Toronto, Montreal and Newark. Are there any other destinations in North America?

owenf · #**303** Posted **Jun 19, 2024, 6:00 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by s211

Hi everyone. Is there a simple source for me to find out what wide bodies Air Canada flies out of Vancouver to elsewhere in North America. At the moment, I only know Toronto, Montreal and Newark. Are there any other destinations in North America?

Ottawa in the summertime (maybe also year round), and Miami once weekly as of last month. There were Dreamliners last year on YVR-YHZ as well.

twoNeurons · #**304** Posted **Jun 19, 2024, 9:49 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by s211

While almost all analysts have been predicting a $30/share price, at least two I know of are around $18 if not lower. That's a relatively new development.

Here I bought some AC right after COVID hit thinking there's no way it won't recover in a few years.... and yet it still languishes at about the same number... 3 years later.

LeftCoaster · #**305** Posted **Jun 19, 2024, 10:08 PM**

Condor and Westjet codesharing to the US out of 3 Canadian Cities:

https://simpleflying.com/westjet-app...8-us-airports/

Interesting YVR and to a lesser extent YHZ were left off this deal. I wonder why? Not the biggest deal by any means but Westjet has a halfway decent US network out of YVR and 5xPW condor flights is more than YYC and YEG combined.

Seems like low hanging fruit.

LeftCoaster · #**306** Posted **Jun 19, 2024, 10:33 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

AA stock price is bad. LH is doing bad as well. UA is doing ok, but nowhere near 2020. IAG stock is stagnant, and nowhere near 2020 levels as well, etc.

Yep American Airlines stock is bad. Guess who else is right down there with them:

That doesn't look like an airline who is killing it to me, it looks like an airline that is struggling and fighting it out with the bottom of the barrel.

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Like it or not, those 8 dreamliners at YYC are part of the reason why AC isn't looking eastward too much out of YVR. But they most certainly do give a damn.

If they gave a damn wouldn't they defend one of their supposed hubs rather than just ceede the business to their largest domestic rival?

Quote:

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Like I said, YYZ and YUL, the two largest international markets in Canada, are well placed for AC to use, especially to Europe, and especially to draw 6th freedom traffic from the US.

Besides, are you saying if AC added more long haul out of YVR, YEG and YYC, stock prices would magically go up? Come on Lefty !

Magic? No.

What I am talking about is better strategy. By putting all their eggs in one basket, that is already full of eggs, they are not most effectively using their airframes. The news out of YYZ and YUL last year, and the year prior, about capacity issues and blown operations was everywhere, yet they are still forcing 12 odd million people out west to either transfer through their competition in YYC or fly out to the gongshow in the east, which is not only out of the way but also in disarray, causing poor customer satisfaction and lost potential revenue. This seems like a poor strategy, no?

Air Canada's capacity to Europe, when measured against pre-covid levels, is down 38% in YVR. That's pathetic. Do you really think 38% less people are flying between Europe and Vancouver when Vancouver has been growing like crazy and there's more tourism/conferences/cruise ships etc... than ever? Instead it launches more and more flights to Europe out of YYZ/YUL then is shocked when there are ops issues.

Maybe add a flight or two out of your other hub to relieve pressure on the two hubs out east and they might find that their ops are more smooth back east and they put more pressure on Westjet who is enjoying little to no competitive presence from AC. They're getting a free ride and are entrenching their hub without needing to fight off AC at all. It's bizarre.

Is it going to fix all their problems? No of course not, but maybe it might help them stop fighting it out with AA for who has the worst performing stock of a major airline in North America.

nname · #**307** Posted **Jun 21, 2024, 8:06 AM**

W24 CI is switching from 359 to 77W for YVR-TPE. Now both BR and CI are running the route with largest aircraft they got, perhaps it's time for AC to come back to the route?
https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/240621-cinw24yvrfra

W24 CX expand YVR-HKG to 13x weekly for the rest of the season. (Nov remains 12-13x weekly, and Dec remains 2x daily)

S25 DE is increasing YVR-FRA from 5x weekly to daily
https://www.condor.com/eu/generated/timetable_S2025.pdf

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Air Canada's capacity to Europe, when measured against pre-covid levels, is down 38% in YVR. That's pathetic. Do you really think 38% less people are flying between Europe and Vancouver when Vancouver has been growing like crazy and there's more tourism/conferences/cruise ships etc... than ever? Instead it launches more and more flights to Europe out of YYZ/YUL then is shocked when there are ops issues.

TBH, the only winner is probably YUL. Compared to pre-pandemic, YYZ is also losing service to... guess what, YUL.

Comparison of European service

Code:

	YYZ	YVR	YUL	YYC	YOW	YHZ
S19	205	 34	 96	 14	 14	 7
S24	161	 18	136	  7	  0	 7
	-21%	-47%	+41%	-50%	-100%	 0%

Or compare all intercontinental routes

Code:

	YYZ	YVR	YUL	YYC	YOW	YHZ
S19	297	105	127	 21	 14	 7
S24	223	 70	168	  7	  0	 7
	-25%	-33%	+14%	-67%	-100%	 0%

While I'm at it, let's compare winter schedule, and you'll get the overall picture

Code:

	YYZ	YVR	YUL	YYC	YOW	YHZ
W19	195	 76	 62	 14	  6	  4
W24	155	 67	 90	  7	  0	  7
	-21%	-12%	+45%	-50%	-100%	+75%

* W24 schedule is far from being finalized. Most likely flying will be reduced from all bases.

AC long-haul fleet was reduced by 17% between 2019 and 2024... so anything more than -17% means the airport is getting more than its share.

And yes, YVR will see more AC widebody in winter compared to summer due to longer route length. Now we'll see for next summer, if YVR able to keep any of those additional 789s and 77Ws AC sent to YVR during the winter.

s211 · #**308** Posted **Jun 21, 2024, 6:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by owenf

Ottawa in the summertime (maybe also year round), and Miami once weekly as of last month. There were Dreamliners last year on YVR-YHZ as well.

Dreamliners to Halifax???

NewfBC · #**309** Posted **Jun 21, 2024, 8:41 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by s211

Dreamliners to Halifax???

Yes.. Air Canada.

Ron.

s211 · #**310** Posted **Jun 22, 2024, 11:46 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewfBC

Yes.. Air Canada.

Ron.

Might be time to short AC stock. A wide body to Halifax? Might as well go widebody to Regina.

NewfBC · #**311** Posted **Jun 23, 2024, 1:06 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by s211

Might be time to short AC stock. A wide body to Halifax? Might as well go widebody to Regina.

It was only summer 2023.. from what I heard it was used to bring seafood freight back from the east coast.

Ron.

connect2source · #**312** Posted **Jun 23, 2024, 11:32 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by NewfBC

It was only summer 2023.. from what I heard it was used to bring seafood freight back from the east coast.

Ron.

Was used for more than just seafood. Flew it YVR-YHZ Jul 31st and back on Aug 6th last year, completely full both ways.

NewfBC · #**313** Posted **Jun 23, 2024, 5:10 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by connect2source

Was used for more than just seafood. Flew it YVR-YHZ Jul 31st and back on Aug 6th last year, completely full both ways.

Well of course there were passengers.. I also flew it last year and then PAL on to YYT. I was just mentioning the reason I heard for using that aircraft on this route.

Ron.

nname · #**314** Posted **Jun 27, 2024, 8:26 AM**

AC published the initial W24 schedule.

Here are the weekly frequency out of YVR compared to last season

Code:

	W23	W24

YYC	64	63
YEG	49	49-
YXY	7	7+
YZF	14	14
YXE	21	21+
YQR	21	21
YWG	21	28
YYZ	81	84+
YOW	14	14+
YUL	28	28+
YQB	3	-

SEA	28	28
PDX	21	21
LAX	28	27-
SFO	28	28-
SMF	7	7
SNA	7	7
SAN	21	14
PSP	7	7
PHX	14	7
LAS	14	14-
DEN	14	14-

IAH	7	7
EWR	7	7
ORD	7	7
IAD	4	-
MIA	6	6

HNL	14	14
OGG	7	7
KOA	4	3

CUN	7	14-
PVR	7	6
SJD	5	4
ZIH	1	1

+ means overall upgauge, - means downgauge, express <-> narrowbody <-> widebody

All the flights that are 6x, 13x, 20x, 27x weekly etc, are x2 for some odd reason...

So looks like there's overall reduction, but similar thing also observed everywhere except for maybe YYC and YOW. Unless there are unannounced and unpublished changes, overall AC W24 schedule appears to be quite a bit smaller than W23...

MalcolmTucker · #**315** Posted **Jun 27, 2024, 3:54 PM**

A change in tactics perhaps. Add flights dynamically as demand is demonstrated and capacity is available, instead of this past year of scrambling to accommodate rebookings and consolidation of flights if demand is weak.

hehehe · #**316** Posted **Jun 27, 2024, 11:27 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by nname

AC published the initial W24 schedule.

Here are the weekly frequency out of YVR compared to last season

Code:

	W23	W24

YYC	64	63
YEG	49	49-
YXY	7	7+
YZF	14	14
YXE	21	21+
YQR	21	21
YWG	21	28
YYZ	81	84+
YOW	14	14+
YUL	28	28+
YQB	3	-

SEA	28	28
PDX	21	21
LAX	28	27-
SFO	28	28-
SMF	7	7
SNA	7	7
SAN	21	14
PSP	7	7
PHX	14	7
LAS	14	14-
DEN	14	14-

IAH	7	7
EWR	7	7
ORD	7	7
IAD	4	-
MIA	6	6

HNL	14	14
OGG	7	7
KOA	4	3

CUN	7	14-
PVR	7	6
SJD	5	4
ZIH	1	1

+ means overall upgauge, - means downgauge, express <-> narrowbody <-> widebody

All the flights that are 6x, 13x, 20x, 27x weekly etc, are x2 for some odd reason...

So looks like there's overall reduction, but similar thing also observed everywhere except for maybe YYC and YOW. Unless there are unannounced and unpublished changes, overall AC W24 schedule appears to be quite a bit smaller than W23...

I think we will see more of this with both AC and WS at all major airports.

trofirhen · #**317** Posted **Jul 1, 2024, 1:17 PM**

Can anybody tell me about how much (%) of YVR traffic is based on the hub-spoke model, and how much is point-to-point? (I think this would apply to the medium-range routes in particular). Thank you.

aberdeen5698 · #**318** Posted **Jul 1, 2024, 1:26 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Can anybody tell me about how much (%) of YVR traffic is based on the hub-spoke model, and how much is point-to-point? (I think this would apply to the medium-range routes in particular). Thank you.

Do you mean flights that use Vancouver as a hub or flights that use Vancouver as a spoke?

trofirhen · #**319** Posted **Jul 1, 2024, 2:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

Do you mean flights that use Vancouver as a hub or flights that use Vancouver as a spoke?

Sorry, but I am unable to answer that. My understanding of point-to-point flights is that they were not part of the hub-and-spoke system, but rather follow and individual city-pair systems.
A hypothetical example, as long as it had a decent yield, might be YVR Vancouver, to MCI Kansas City (which has virtually no overseas destinations, as they're too close to ORD, MPS, DEN, and DFW)

thenoflyzone · #**320** Posted **Jul 1, 2024, 8:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Can anybody tell me about how much (%) of YVR traffic is based on the hub-spoke model, and how much is point-to-point? (I think this would apply to the medium-range routes in particular). Thank you.

You're using the wrong words.

YVR is a hub. it's not going to have any point to point routes. It's all hub-spoke, or hub-hub.

Point to point means more spoke-spoke routes. YVR doesn't have any.

I think you meant the percentage of O&D passengers vs connecting passengers. Don't have recent numbers, but I'd guess it's around 80% O&D, 20% connecting.