Heavy Rail, Commuter Rail, & Intercity Transportation

[Migrant_Coconut]

Assuming that's the case (those parameters give slightly above 1858/sq km at best), that puts Abbotsford more on par with Ladner or Aldergrove - which certainly aren't getting trains either - not Richmond. The fact remains: its current land use and commuting habits don't warrant much more than bus lanes, which they are getting.

[BaddieB]

The problem with equating Abbotsford with Aldergrove or Ladner is that Abbotsford is a much larger city overall. I also don't know how you could have possibly achieved that 1900 density figure. As I said, I got to around 3300.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Likewise, I don't know how you got to 3300. Google Maps isn't the best source of information.

Kelowna's even bigger than Abbotsford. I don't see anybody trying to push 2WAD there from Vancouver. More to the point, this entire thing started because a certain somebody tried to say the Valley was no worse sprawl-wise than Vancouver's suburbs, and spoiler alert: yes it is. Even West Van and Langley are trying to reign it in.

[BaddieB]

Sending a train to Kelowna is entirely different because Abbotsford is close to Vancouver, Kelowna is not, so the costs would be much higher sending it out to Kelowna.

[Changing City]

It's easy to see how dense Abbortsford's population is using Censusmapper. Zoomed to the level of census tracts, it's possible to calculate the population density for the developed area. That covers 47 sq km, and had 122,498 residents in 2021. That's a residential density of 2,600 per sq km.

The population isn't located evenly; east of Sumas Way there were 46,663 residents, and a density of 1,900 per sq km, while west of Sumas Way had 78,835 residents at 3,270 per sq km, although the area of each half is roughly the same.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by Changing City

It's easy to see how dense Abbortsford's population is using Censusmapper. Zoomed to the level of census tracts, it's possible to calculate the population density for the developed area. That covers 47 sq km, and had 122,498 residents in 2021. That's a residential density of 2,600 per sq km.

The population isn't located evenly; east of Sumas Way there were 46,663 residents, and a density of 1,900 per sq km, while west of Sumas Way had 78,835 residents at 3,270 per sq km, although the area of each half is roughly the same.

2021 census appears to be outdated big time. As someone who regularly goes out here...it's apparent things have changed in the past 2 years. Many homes with a dozen cars in the driveway with plates having the first letter M, N or T (new license plates between 2021-2024).

You need to expand the highway and build rail asap. This is going to be a major issue by the end of the decade.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by BaddieB

Sending a train to Kelowna is entirely different because Abbotsford is close to Vancouver, Kelowna is not, so the costs would be much higher sending it out to Kelowna.

"Close" is relative. We're currently spending $4 billion CAD to connect Surrey to Langley, and doubling the length of the entire Expo Line in the process.

Abbotsford is twice as far as Langley from Surrey, and Chilliwack is four times as far, and I believe you mentioned last page how it should be cheap (which it most likely won't be). I'm not saying Surrey-Chilliwack will cost $16 billion, I'm saying it's not going to be a thing unless the Valley's ridership and transit-oriented development increases by several orders of magnitude to justify it.

Originally Posted by logicbomb

You need to expand the highway... This is going to be a major issue by the end of the decade.

Already in progress.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

BC has already completed the route study phase. We're now in the funding and demand phase.

Well, at least we are not in the "rejection" phase which many of the forumers are favouring and pushing for.

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Assuming that's the case (those parameters give slightly above 1858/sq km at best), that puts Abbotsford more on par with Ladner or Aldergrove - which certainly aren't getting trains either - not Richmond. The fact remains: its current land use and commuting habits don't warrant much more than bus lanes, which they are getting.

You can't get people to change their commuting habit to something which is non-existent. You also can't expect a demand for something which is also non-existent

I'm surprised many can't see this.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

That's the benefit of living in a flat province. Luckily for BC's transit planners, we have one big city instead of two smaller ones, and its airport is already connected.

The Swiss railyway must be pretty crappy since the country is so mountainous and has low-population densities throughout.


• Video Link

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Vin

You can't get people to change their commuting habit to something which is non-existent. You also can't expect a demand for something which is also non-existent

I'm surprised many can't see this.

Once again, that's what the Fraser Valley Express is for (which has been around since 2015), just like how we needed the 99 to build up demand for the subway. If you can't fill a bus, you're not going to fill a train.

Originally Posted by Vin

The Swiss railyway must be pretty crappy since the country is so mountainous and has low-population densities throughout.

They also have one of the world's highest GDPs per capita, the smallest country in Europe, and France, Germany, Italy and Austria wanting to cross through them. Apples to oranges.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Once again, that's what the Fraser Valley Express is for (which has been around since 2015), just like how we needed the 99 to build up demand for the subway. If you can't fill a bus, you're not going to fill a train.



They also have one of the world's highest GDPs per capita, the smallest country in Europe, and France, Germany, Italy and Austria wanting to cross through them. Apples to oranges.

There're reasons why they have one of the world's highest GDPs per capita: mentality of the people and productivity of the nation boosted by the railway.

Apples to oranges indeed.

BTW, the Swiss domestic railway serving small towns, are not directly influenced by the cross border railways.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

They also have one of the world's highest GDPs per capita, the smallest country in Europe, and France, Germany, Italy and Austria wanting to cross through them. Apples to oranges.

Unfortunately this is also a cart-before-the-horse/catch-22 scenario. Public transportation is the default choice for much of Switzerland, with one of the highest rail usages in Europe. This is of course, because they have an extremely dense, well developed, extensive rail network. This is of course because they have one of the highest rail usages in Europe...

There is a world where rail transit is extensive and well used outside Metro Vancouver, but when most people in the Valley already own cars, and live kilometres away from the existing rail lones, and don't have existing public transit habits... there's a lot of hurdles that need to be overcome to make rail to the Fraser Valley a viable business case.

Originally Posted by Vin

There're reasons why they have one of the world's highest GDPs per capita: mentality of the people and productivity of the nation boosted by the railway.

Don't forget that Canada also has one of the most productive railway networks in the world... the railways just recognize that they're close to capacity and moving freight is more productive than moving passengers.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by Vin

Well, at least we are not in the "rejection" phase which many of the forumers are favouring and pushing for.

I think folks have been in the "there is still no business case " phase. Rejecting something that is not yet feasible seems sensible. Especially whne we are talking about billions of dollars

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by Vin

There're reasons why they have one of the world's highest GDPs per capita: mentality of the people and productivity of the nation boosted by the railway.

Apples to oranges indeed.

BTW, the Swiss domestic railway serving small towns, are not directly influenced by the cross border railways.

No, because of foreign billionaires parking all their money in Swiss bank accounts in order to dodge taxes back home - it's a common practice which most people are aware of, and not one which Canada should keep emulating. The Swiss have the fourth shortest work week in the world and don't take calls outside of business hours, so if anything, Canadians have a "stronger" work mentality with nothing to show for it.

Also BTW, a Zurich-Bern one-way fare is $25-40 CAD, which is a large part of how the trains pay for themselves. If British Columbians have to pay that much for a train trip to Chilliwack, they're taking the car.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

2021 census appears to be outdated big time. As someone who regularly goes out here...it's apparent things have changed in the past 2 years. Many homes with a dozen cars in the driveway with plates having the first letter M, N or T (new license plates between 2021-2024).

You need to expand the highway and build rail asap. This is going to be a major issue by the end of the decade.

Statistics Canada just published the new population estimates for 2023 yesterday. Metro Vancouver added 200,000 more residents in 2 years. Abbotsford added 6,000. If there's any money to build more transit Abbotsford is low on the list of locatons that would benefit the most.

[trofirhen]

Please excuse the digression, but as HSR is something to come sooner or later, I hope this post is acceptable. The subject is the Amtrak Cascades and there are five proposed scheduling options. Which do you prefer?
It is from the High Speed Rail Alliance.




https://www.hsrail.org/wp-content/up...requencies.png > the graph above


https://www.hsrail.org/blog/amtrak-c...and-frequency/ > the hsrail.org blog (rather interesting, I thought)

[FarmerHaight]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

Please excuse the digression, but as HSR is something to come sooner or later, I hope this post is acceptable. The subject is the Amtrak Cascades and there are five proposed scheduling options. Which do you prefer?

Alternative E has the most round trips and the shortest travel times, with Vancouver to Seattle at 3:39 (only six minutes longer than the express option under Alternative D) and Portland to Seattle at 3:05. I don't see how any Cascades passenger from Vancouver could prefer any other alternative.

Without cost estimates it's also hard to put oneself in the shoes of a government decision maker for a cost-benefit analysis.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by chowhou

Don't forget that Canada also has one of the most productive railway networks in the world... the railways just recognize that they're close to capacity and moving freight is more productive than moving passengers.

Also don't forget that the railways in Canada are a duopoly that refuses to upgrade the infrastructure that was built over a century ago. They're perpetualy close to capacity by design by massively underfunding their infrastructure and waiting for government handouts despite being among the largest companies in the country.

[chowhou]

Originally Posted by mcj

Also don't forget that the railways in Canada are a duopoly that refuses to upgrade the infrastructure that was built over a century ago. They're perpetualy close to capacity by design by massively underfunding their infrastructure and waiting for government handouts despite being among the largest companies in the country.

That's simply not true, they're constantly upgrading rail infrastructure in the Lower Mainland. It's just all centred around increasing the amount of freight that can be moved.

[mcj]

Originally Posted by chowhou

That's simply not true, they're constantly upgrading rail infrastructure in the Lower Mainland. It's just all centred around increasing the amount of freight that can be moved.

Both railways still have substantial portions of single tracked railways for their mainlines.

Was speaking with an operator at CN last week that goes from Thornton Yard to the interior on the regular and they were telling me they're constantly sitting for delays because of the single track and the refusal of CN to do anything about it. They're waiting on government handouts to even think about doing anything about this.

Not to mention the Westminster Rail Bridge, also single tracked and has been that way for over a hundred years and is part of the main line. They'd rather throw trucks at the problem than meaningfully upgrade their infrastructure.

There's two major examples. Your claim of it being "simply not true" is disingenuous at best.