Federal Government & Politics II

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

I would have liked the government to announce when they'll reach the 2% mark, even if it takes ten years, and at least give our partners a date. Say by 2030.

They have literally told other governments privately that they will never meet 2%. At this point, they are basically daring allies and partners not to sideline us. It's also bet that somebody like Trump won't get elected in the US and basically rip up existing deals with Canada citing defence spending as an excuse.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by SteelTown

I would have liked the government to announce when they'll reach the 2% mark, even if it takes ten years, and at least give our partners a date. Say by 2030.

Just saying so without a plan is how we got into this mess. The NATO treaty was not ammended to require 2% defence spending so really this is aspirational. The US committed to supporting Ukraine until victory in a statement at the leaders level on the issue. The NATO 2% pledge was perhaps a more serious committment but less than the Budapest committment to defend Ukraine. We agreed to .7% GDP for development assistance.

We are an incredibly safe country defended by geography. Our defence spending is largely a contribution to world stabilty. As is our foreign aid and any carbon reduction. Yes we benefit from a world that is stable and we can encourage others to step up on all of those issues but at the end of the day we are a democracy and plans to cut pensions or child benefits really aren't going to fly when our own security isn't really on the line.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Our Defence procurement is a giant mess and nobody wants to join the Army. I think we have a problem spending the money, unless we're just paying the bills for Ukraine's war effort.

Our defence spending "is a giant mess" because we choose to prioritize industrial and regional benefits over actual procurement while not actually spending enough to incentivize industry to really put down roots here. So most of our spending is highly politicized and inefficient. That is a political choice. When needed, the government can and will bypass all those rules. See procurement during the Afghanistan war.

As for lack of recruiting. Well, it's hard to motivate skilled people to sign up when we're going to pay them similar wages to the private sector but post them all across the country every 2-3 years while also lacking basics like housing and family health and social support. Again, all by design and ignored by the current government.

[Innsertnamehere]

We are an incredibly safe country defended by Geography and being neighbours and close partners to the US, who is by far, like, by a factor of 10, the most advanced military power on the planet.

We don't need to spend 2% because the US is absolutely dominating and nobody would dare touch Canada, a close alliance literally on their doorstep. The US's complete and utter military dominance to such an absurd degree is a big reason we don't have to worry about defense much. I mean, Ukraine is successfully fighting off what is supposed to be the world's #2 military power with US leftovers, basically. No wonder nobody would dare touch Canada, which the US would likely defend with it's actual true military might.

The problem is that we can ride off that level of defense - but as the US likes to complain, it's really not a fair thing that we rely on US military spending for our own security. Increasing our own spending would make it more "fair", but also not really accomplish anything in terms of actual results or increased levels of security as we are basically at 100% security already.

[Truenorth00]

^ This mindset has prevailed in a lot of Western Europe too until recently. "The Americans will take care of it." That worked until Trump. He won't be the last. And Biden didn't actually undo a lot of Trump's foreign policy, even if he used more conciliatory language. There's an emerging consensus in the US that trade and economic cooperation should be tied to American security interests. And this is where Canada's mooching is going to hit a wall. We're really lucky that USMCA wasn't tied to defence and foreign policy alignment by Trump. Future American administrations won't make that mistake again.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

We are an incredibly safe country defended by Geography and being neighbours and close partners to the US, who is by far, like, by a factor of 10, the most advanced military power on the planet.

We don't need to spend 2% because the US is absolutely dominating and nobody would dare touch Canada, a close alliance literally on their doorstep. The US's complete and utter military dominance to such an absurd degree is a big reason we don't have to worry about defense much. I mean, Ukraine is successfully fighting off what is supposed to be the world's #2 military power with US leftovers, basically. No wonder nobody would dare touch Canada, which the US would likely defend with it's actual true military might.

The problem is that we can ride off that level of defense - but as the US likes to complain, it's really not a fair thing that we rely on US military spending for our own security. Increasing our own spending would make it more "fair", but also not really accomplish anything in terms of actual results or increased levels of security as we are basically at 100% security already.

Would you rather have the Americans consider us as a trusted partner in continental defense, or as just a neighbouring vassal state.

We seem to be trending towards the latter rather than the former.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Would you rather have the Americans consider us as a trusted partner in continental defense, or as just a neighbouring vassal state.

We seem to be trending towards the latter rather than the former.

It's going beyond that. They are starting to plan continental and Arctic ops without Canadian participation. There's going to be some spicy discussions in the years to come.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ This mindset has prevailed in a lot of Western Europe too until recently. "The Americans will take care of it." That worked until Trump. He won't be the last. And Biden didn't actually undo a lot of Trump's foreign policy, even if he used more conciliatory language. There's an emerging consensus in the US that trade and economic cooperation should be tied to American security interests. And this is where Canada's mooching is going to hit a wall. We're really lucky that USMCA wasn't tied to defence and foreign policy alignment by Trump. Future American administrations won't make that mistake again.

We are not Western Europe. Sure a clash with China over Taiwan will make us wish we had better submarines to contribute but won't make a difference to the result. Anymore than us shutting down our economy would make a difference to climate change.

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Would you rather have the Americans consider us as a trusted partner in continental defense, or as just a neighbouring vassal state.

We seem to be trending towards the latter rather than the former.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ This mindset has prevailed in a lot of Western Europe too until recently. "The Americans will take care of it." That worked until Trump. He won't be the last. And Biden didn't actually undo a lot of Trump's foreign policy, even if he used more conciliatory language. There's an emerging consensus in the US that trade and economic cooperation should be tied to American security interests. And this is where Canada's mooching is going to hit a wall. We're really lucky that USMCA wasn't tied to defence and foreign policy alignment by Trump. Future American administrations won't make that mistake again.

What we do is irrelveant to how the US sees us. We will always be viewed that way. Harper was always so surprised we were ignored despite fighting above our weight in Kandahar.

On trade they will get the best deal possible for their corporate overlords that write trade policy. They are going to fight for 500 more tons of cheese quota over any committement on defense that wouldn't be enforceable anyway. As Trump discoverd there are a lot of congressional districts with a lot of jobs dependant on trade with Canada. We have the advantage of being to act in unity.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

It's going beyond that. They are starting to plan continental and Arctic ops without Canadian participation. There's going to be some spicy discussions in the years to come.

If the Americans feel they can militarily infringe on our territorial integrity ad lib, then we are marching closer and closer to the precipice of being a failed state.

This seems to be the case in many sphere of federal government policy in any event.

Thanks JT...........

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

We are an incredibly safe country defended by Geography and being neighbours and close partners to the US, who is by far, like, by a factor of 10, the most advanced military power on the planet...

So was the Roman Empire, until it wasn't....

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by whatnext

So was the Roman Empire, until it wasn't....

Sure but that's like arguing a beaver should build a damn downriver because the hydro dam up river might collapse.

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

What we do is irrelveant to how the US sees us. We will always be viewed that way. Harper was always so surprised we were ignored despite fighting above our weight in Kandahar.

.

Its shocking how little is know. Had a friend working the Pentagon while we were in Afghanistan. What shocked him was when they bombed our troops. Quite a number in the Pentagon were surprised we were there.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Sure but that's like arguing a beaver should build a damn downriver because the hydro dam up river might collapse.

Perfect analogy.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

If the Americans feel they can militarily infringe on our territorial integrity ad lib, then we are marching closer and closer to the precipice of being a failed state.

This seems to be the case in many sphere of federal government policy in any event.

Thanks JT...........

To be absolutely fair, this isn't just a Trudeau or Liberal thing. It's not like Harper was better on defence spending. There was criticism during the Bush and Obama era too. It just wasn't so obvious and public. But being in Afghanistan and Iraq bought us some reprieve. The argument has always been that we may underspend but we show up. Increasingly that is less true. Post-Trump a lot has changed. And increasingly it's bi-partisan, not just a Republican complaint. These letters and hearings are a reflection of their growing frustration.

I suspect some of this messaging is also aimed at PP and the CPC to let them know that the Harper era tactic of substituting rhetoric for resources will not be sufficient.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

We are not Western Europe.

In some ways we're worse positioned because we're the backdoor to the US homeland.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

What we do is irrelveant to how the US sees us. We will always be viewed that way. Harper was always so surprised we were ignored despite fighting above our weight in Kandahar.

On trade they will get the best deal possible for their corporate overlords that write trade policy. They are going to fight for 500 more tons of cheese quota over any committement on defense that wouldn't be enforceable anyway. As Trump discoverd there are a lot of congressional districts with a lot of jobs dependant on trade with Canada. We have the advantage of being to act in unity.

You are massively underestimating the growing protectionist instinct in the US. And their frustration with Canada. Including the growing drumbeat of complaints about the northern border. You're also overestimating our relative importance to the US as Mexico grows more and more dominant in their trade relationships. I will concede that you represent the median Canadian POV and I do think it's outdated and naive.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

In some ways we're worse positioned because we're the backdoor to the US homeland.

You are massively underestimating the growing protectionist instinct in the US. And their frustration with Canada. Including the growing drumbeat of complaints about the northern border. You're also overestimating our relative importance to the US as Mexico grows more and more dominant in their trade relationships. I will concede that you represent the median Canadian POV and I do think it's outdated and naive.

I don't overesitimate it but mixing defence and trade is not really a thing. So Trump absolutely will rip up CUSMA. At that point we could spend $3-4 Billion one time and buy out all our dairy farmers. Remove all quotas and tarrifs and lowering milk prices and creating billions in export value for the US. Or we could spend $20 Billion and you think we will stop getting pressed on other things?

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Our defence spending has been shameful for many decades.

Half as shameful as a decade ago.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Easy to say. What would you cut instead or tax to bring in the revenue? There seems to be a consensus to ignore it at this point across the political spectrum. NDP no longer quite as anti NATO anti-defence spending and the Cons seem to have lost the appetite as well to invest as we move to populist conservatism.

The 100k bureaucrats Trudeau added would significantly close the gap.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yeah we've moved on from that. We should have made more investments like that not less. The overpaying in the hopes of getting vaccines was proven to be the right response. Even a 10% chance this plant produced vaccines was worth the risk considering how much it cost to be locked down. Of course Canada kept lockdowns after we all had the chance to be vaccinated which is nonsensical but that's a seperate issue.

I am willing to accept that panicky decisions were made in 2020. Since 2021 it has been apparent that RNA vaccines were where the world was going, so spending from 2021 to present on non-RNA vaccines is just wasteful.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

In some ways we're worse positioned because we're the backdoor to the US homeland.

......

You are massively underestimating the growing protectionist instinct in the US. And their frustration with Canada. Including the growing drumbeat of complaints about the northern border. You're also overestimating our relative importance to the US as Mexico grows more and more dominant in their trade relationships. I will concede that you represent the median Canadian POV and I do think it's outdated and naive.

During the last presidential visit it sounds like a lot of the frustration was over Haiti. The Americans have the military capacity to deploy almost anywhere in the world, except there. They wanted Canada to take the lead in trying to solve that problem. We simply were not able, prepared or willing.

I think that is a good example of how Canada and the US could have a symbiotic relationship. Over time there will continue to be shared "problems" that pop up where for political reasons we are able to do things the Americans simply can't due to geo-politics.

The problem is our capacity is limited. Our will to get involved is even more limited.

The year before JT came into power defence spending was what 0.99% of GDP. The Liberals have made progress, but it is been slow progress. I have little confidence in a PP government outspending Liberals.

As for industrial involvement, that is how the game is played in Canada, Europe or the US. Defence is the one sacred cow where government can actively push a buy-Canada agenda. In virtually every other are of government spending it is a free open global market. We need a balanced stratagy that gets the forces the stuff they need it and where practical ensures its made in Canada or their are secondary spin-offs. A good example is the P-8. It is a proven platform and Boeing is investing in a center of excellence in Montreal as a result.