National Economy

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

It's clear you don't understand how unemployment is calculated. And there was no change to the rate, not an increase.

...Population growth has outpaced job creation over the last year, which has pushed up the unemployment rate by a full percentage point...

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

...Population growth has outpaced job creation over the last year, which has pushed up the unemployment rate by a full percentage point...

Why didn't you include that in what you quoted? What you posted contradicted your comment.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Why didn't you include that in what you quoted? What you posted contradicted your comment.

I did! Time for some reading glasses.

[RHINO]

The oil and gas sector will see a boom next year after the election. The crazy radical ideas will be a distant memory and we will all be a lot better off. If those who feel VERY strongly about the environment really want to do something about it, put their money where their mouth is and go to India and China to ask about their pollution out put. Its easy to go after the low hanging fruit like Canada but when its a REAL fight, people who lean a certain way tend to back down. Its the same with racism. Certain Racism is okay in university now as long as its the correct form of racism. Hitler felt the same way in fact. We all want our EV's and were just fine with how many 3rd world children die in mines to produce the metals we need. we would open the mines here, but the environmental lunatics would scream about them. So kids die. None of the certain leaning people are worried about that, because the end justifies the means I guess? So some evil is fine if its your team doing it.

[ssiguy]

This latest unemployment report is much worse than it looks. In the last year public service employment surge by 208,000 while the private sector by only 190,000.

This is Trudeau economics 101........if you have unemployed then just put them on the payroll and if you don't have the money then just print some more and then hire them.
Obviously, Trudeau and Freeland are both University of Peronism graduates.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

This latest unemployment report is much worse than it looks. In the last year public service employment surge by 208,000 while the private sector by only 190,000.

This is Trudeau economics 101........if you have unemployed then just put them on the payroll and if you don't have the money then just print some more and then hire them.
Obviously, Trudeau and Freeland are both University of Peronism graduates.

I'm pretty sure that the federal public service did not grow by 208,000 people last year.

[craner]

208,000!!??
I hope to hell that is not true.

[casper]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

This latest unemployment report is much worse than it looks. In the last year public service employment surge by 208,000 while the private sector by only 190,000.

This is Trudeau economics 101........if you have unemployed then just put them on the payroll and if you don't have the money then just print some more and then hire them.
Obviously, Trudeau and Freeland are both University of Peronism graduates.

I think your are referencing this report... https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...40510a-eng.htm

Some key quotes:

- Average hourly wages among employees increased 4.7% (+$1.57 to $34.95) on a year-over-year basis in April, following growth of 5.1% in March (not seasonally adjusted).

- Private sector employment rose in April (+50,000; +0.4%) following four consecutive months of little change.

- The labour force participation rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who were employed or looking for work—rose 0.1 percentage points to 65.4% in April. This was the first increase since June 2023.

- Employment in health care and social assistance increased by 17,000 (+0.6%) in April 2024, building on an increase of 40,000 (+1.5%) in March. Over the past 12 months, the fastest employment growth has been among people working in hospitals (+9.8%), followed by social assistance (+8.6%) and nursing and residential care facilities (+8.3%) (not seasonally adjusted).

So there you go. That has been significant growth in Heath Care (aka public sector). For us Liberal supporters we view that as a positive.

The other interesting factor is average wages is growing faster than inflation. That means workers are starting to catch up a bit on what they lost during the period of high inflation.

[casper]

Originally Posted by RHINO

The oil and gas sector will see a boom next year after the election. The crazy radical ideas will be a distant memory and we will all be a lot better off. If those who feel VERY strongly about the environment really want to do something about it, put their money where their mouth is and go to India and China to ask about their pollution out put. Its easy to go after the low hanging fruit like Canada but when its a REAL fight, people who lean a certain way tend to back down. Its the same with racism. Certain Racism is okay in university now as long as its the correct form of racism. Hitler felt the same way in fact. We all want our EV's and were just fine with how many 3rd world children die in mines to produce the metals we need. we would open the mines here, but the environmental lunatics would scream about them. So kids die. None of the certain leaning people are worried about that, because the end justifies the means I guess? So some evil is fine if its your team doing it.

If there is an increase in that industry it is more than likely as a result of the new pipeline the Liberals built. I know, we should have invested that in green energy. But it was a reasonable compromise.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by casper

I think your are referencing this report... https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...40510a-eng.htm

Some key quotes:


So there you go. That has been significant growth in Heath Care (aka public sector). For us Liberal supporters we view that as a positive.

The other interesting factor is average wages is growing faster than inflation. That means workers are starting to catch up a bit on what they lost during the period of high inflation.

Wage growth has been much higher than inflation for over a year now.
It has been between 4 to 6% for a year and half now

[Nite]

Originally Posted by whatnext

...Population growth has outpaced job creation over the last year, which has pushed up the unemployment rate by a full percentage point...

That's not how that works though. For every job an immigrant take up they create 1.2 jobs in the economy.
so unemployment would have gone up by more than 1.0 without our level of immigration.
That's partly why wage suppression never occurs with immigration.
Look at Canada rapid wage increase over the last 3 years if you doubt this fact.

here is the US study about the 1.2 jobs created by every immigrant worker.

Each immigrant creates 1.2 new jobs for local workers.

A majority of the new jobs created go to native-born workers.

62 percent of the new jobs are in non-traded services — anything from dentistry to bartending to plumbing that can't be shipped across the country.

Immigrants raise wages in the local non-traded sector.

Immigrants attract native-born domestic migrants from elsewhere in the country.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w21123

[Nite]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

This latest unemployment report is much worse than it looks. In the last year public service employment surge by 208,000 while the private sector by only 190,000.

This is Trudeau economics 101........if you have unemployed then just put them on the payroll and if you don't have the money then just print some more and then hire them.
Obviously, Trudeau and Freeland are both University of Peronism graduates.

The entirety of the Federal public service is 360,000 employees which is about 10% of the 3.6 million Canadian who work in the public sector, the other 90% work for Provincial and municipal governments in Canada. So is Trudeau forcing all these levels of government to hire more people especially in healthcare???

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Nite

Wage growth has been much higher than inflation for over a year now.
It has been between 4 to 6% for a year and half now

One would expect a time lag as wages catch up to the higher inflation rates of a couple of years ago. At some point, that rate of wage growth is going to put upward pressure on inflation, one would think.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by casper

If there is an increase in that industry it is more than likely as a result of the new pipeline the Liberals built. I know, we should have invested that in green energy. But it was a reasonable compromise.

This is partially true and I think the Conservatives likely would have ended up with a goose egg on getting pipelines built. The negative investment environment for O&G is certainly on the Liberals but even a new government may not be able to reveres this as the horse is out of the barn to some extent on and anti-energy government that could always return, and even return stronger. For all the criticism from the oil patch it was like most issues mostly rhetoric rather than anything concrete actions taken against the sector.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by RHINO

The oil and gas sector will see a boom next year after the election. The crazy radical ideas will be a distant memory and we will all be a lot better off. If those who feel VERY strongly about the environment really want to do something about it, put their money where their mouth is and go to India and China to ask about their pollution out put. Its easy to go after the low hanging fruit like Canada but when its a REAL fight, people who lean a certain way tend to back down. Its the same with racism. Certain Racism is okay in university now as long as its the correct form of racism. Hitler felt the same way in fact. We all want our EV's and were just fine with how many 3rd world children die in mines to produce the metals we need. we would open the mines here, but the environmental lunatics would scream about them. So kids die. None of the certain leaning people are worried about that, because the end justifies the means I guess? So some evil is fine if its your team doing it.

thanks for the laugh

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

This is partially true and I think the Conservatives likely would have ended up with a goose egg on getting pipelines built. The negative investment environment for O&G is certainly on the Liberals but even a new government may not be able to reveres this as the horse is out of the barn to some extent on and anti-energy government that could always return, and even return stronger. For all the criticism from the oil patch it was like most issues mostly rhetoric rather than anything concrete actions taken against the sector.

Oil bros love to talk about the regulatory environment. And yet the only difference between Canada and the US on major regulation? Consultation with First Nations is part of our constitution. So unless we're going to be the changing the constitution, not that much is going to change. I'm sure they'll try and ram through some projects and then get smacked down at the Supreme Court. Governments and industries simply need to learn how to win over First Nations whenever they build something.

[savevp]

Originally Posted by Nite

though. For every job an immigrant take up they create 1.2 jobs in the economy.

I would question the relevance of the quoted US study in the current Canadian context, where many/most immigrants are temporary foreign students working menial gig jobs, if any. Maybe that 1.2 number is more relevant with skilled immigrants.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by savevp

I would question the relevance of the quoted US study in the current Canadian context, where many/most immigrants are temporary foreign students working menial gig jobs, if any. Maybe that 1.2 number is more relevant with skilled immigrants.

Nite's bullshit didn't even deserve an answer, IMO.

If we import ~1M FNSs per year, ~1.2M new permanent jobs appear out of thin air;
If we import ~2M FNSs per year, ~2.4M new permanent jobs appear out of thin air;
How many jobs did Canada create last year? I mean, this theory is such obvious BS it's not even worth considering.

[casper]

Originally Posted by savevp

I would question the relevance of the quoted US study in the current Canadian context, where many/most immigrants are temporary foreign students working menial gig jobs, if any. Maybe that 1.2 number is more relevant with skilled immigrants.

Well, perhaps the study can not be applied. Immigration to the US is dominated by Latin America. Significant number being illegal or un-documented.

Canada on the other hand has had target immigrants, or students ready to enter Canadian post-secondary education.

Our immigrants are likely higher skilled than the US.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Nite

That's not how that works though. For every job an immigrant take up they create 1.2 jobs in the economy.
so unemployment would have gone up by more than 1.0 without our level of immigration.
That's partly why wage suppression never occurs with immigration.
Look at Canada rapid wage increase over the last 3 years if you doubt this fact.

here is the US study about the 1.2 jobs created by every immigrant worker.

There's no universal law that 1.2 jobs must be created per 1 immigrant in every context in every place forever - that study is referencing a very specific time, place, and economic conditions that don't necessarily apply to us.

In the case of Canada in 2023, we got 1.2 million new immigrants while only 400,000 jobs were created (0.33 new jobs/immigrant).