Federal Elections

[lrt's friend]

Harper just pandering to voters with crime policies

Randall Denley
The Ottawa Citizen


Thursday, September 25, 2008


The Conservative party's crime announcements this week illustrate the problem with Stephen Harper. Instead of offering any kind of real leadership for this country, the Conservative "leader" tells you what he thinks you want to hear. Or at least, what he hopes 40 per cent of you want to hear. That's enough for a majority, so the rest don't matter.

People believe there is a big youth crime problem and Conservatives like Nepean-Carleton's Pierre Poilievre have been playing to that perception with frequent pamphlets talking about thugs and gangs. Having helped promote fear, the Conservatives are responding with tougher sentences for the most serious youth crimes and publication of names of those who commit those crimes.

There is a popular view that criminals too often get a slap on the wrist, so Harper also wants to limit the crimes for which judges can order conditional sentences such as house arrest. Among the crimes for which he wants jail time are break and enter and car theft. If Harper's plan is enacted, the Liberals say it will mean about 7,100 more people in jail. The capital cost of that is $2.2 billion. Is jail-building Harper's new economic plan?

Harper's promises are unlikely to reduce crime, but they will please victims of crime and enhance the tough-on-crime image Harper wants to project. It's all about shoring up the core Conservative vote.

The actual statistics don't support Harper's approach on crime. Most criminals are getting either jail time or probation, not a conditional sentence. In 2005/06, only 11,154 people received conditional sentences, Statistics Canada says, while 82,647 got jail time and 108,477 received probation. Those numbers represent what Crown prosecutors and judges who have actually heard the cases consider to be appropriate sentences. Harper seeks to tie the hands of these experienced justice officials.

Youth crime is actually declining, with the overall rate going down six per cent between 1996 and 2006, Statistics Canada says. While property crimes are going down, there has been a slow increase in violent crime, which has gone up 12 per cent over the decade. Both the number and rate of youths accused of homicide were at record levels in 2006, but the total numbers are so small that rates fluctuate wildly. Just five years earlier, homicide by youths was at a 30-year low.

Harper says "we are concerned about young people falling into a life of crime." If so, sending them to jail to get tips from criminals doesn't seem the right thing to do.

Under new Conservative rules, people as young as 14 would face stiffer sentences for serious violent crimes. For example, a killer could face a 25-year sentence rather than the current 10 years. Harper pretends that this longer sentence will deter young killers, but that would only be true if they were rational actors with the reasoning power to determine that the longer sentence made the crime a bad idea. They already face 10 years, six of which must be behind bars. If a deterrent is helpful, surely that is one.

If these teenage criminals were to be deterred by longer sentences and the fear of getting their names in the newspapers, they must also be a lot smarter than adult killers. That group is already subject to both those penalties, but we still have homicides.

To some degree, there is a problem with youth violent crime, but the question is, will the Conservative measures do anything to help? The problem with increasing punishments is that the crime has already taken place. It's a lot more effective, for society and for victims, to focus attention instead on crime prevention. On the positive side, the Conservatives promise $10 million a year for a youth gang prevention fund, up from a little more than $3 million a year now. That's good, but it's a drop in the bucket compared with what the Conservatives are prepared to spend on punishment. Keeping an inmate in a federal institution costs about $95,000 a year.

The facts don't support Harper's latest crackdown on crime, but Conservative voters will. For Harper, that's all that counts. The crime promises might win Harper short-term gain, but they show his weakness as a leader. Strong leaders have the courage to tell people the facts, even when the facts don't fit their preconceived notions and don't benefit the leader politically. Instead, Stephen Harper panders to fear.

That kind of approach from Harper is predictable, but it's a pity that both the NDP and the Liberals are also trying to prove they are tough on crime. What's wrong with being thoughtful on crime?

Contact Randall Denley at 613-596-3756 or by e-mail, [email protected]

© The Ottawa Citizen 2008

I often think that Randall Denley is off the wall on many subjects but look at what he says about costs alone.

7,100 new prisoners @ $95,000 per year = $674.5M per year plus capital costs of $2.2 B to build new prisons

That is what we may end up spending on punishment versus $10M for crime prevention.

Are we really setting our priorities correctly?

It reminds me of Lowell Green's comments about the poverty industry, which he claimed was designed to preserve jobs and appease special interest groups rather than really reduce poverty. Sounds like we may now be building the punishment industry.

[Cre47]

dp0

[Cre47]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

I often think that Randall Denley is off the wall on many subjects but look at what he says about costs alone.

7,100 new prisoners @ $95,000 per year = $674.5M per year plus capital costs of $2.2 B to build new prisons

That is what we may end up spending on punishment versus $10M for crime prevention.

Are we really setting our priorities correctly?

It reminds me of Lowell Green's comments about the poverty industry, which he claimed was designed to preserve jobs and appease special interest groups rather than really reduce poverty. Sounds like we may now be building the punishment industry.

Sounds like pork-barrel spending. Remember the icebreaker announcement - more pork-barrel spending. Harper doesn't seem to know the priorities of the majority. What's next? A Bridge to Nowhere?

Harper also says that the economy will going to be as bad as in the US - looks at what's going out east with the forest, agriculture, auto and tech sectors as well as other manufactured jobs. Also the jobs related to culture could be taken a hit with his massive cuts. Sure the oil companies and big banks are really doing well but most of the rest of the sectors are not.

And then his promise to end the mission in Afghanistan in 2011 - I would guarantee he will extend it even further if he gets a majority.

Then almost nothing on environment and transit. Nothing on health and food safety. Nothing on social housing and poverty.

The Conservatives have almost no agenda. As much as I ridicule Stephane Dion at least he has an agenda with his somewhat complicated plan, while Jack Layton probably has the best planned agenda so far. I guess Stephane doesn't want a coalition with the NDP because he would likely not be the leader since Layton is way much better then him.

[Aylmer]

Great. Throw away the key and their future.
How can this NOT increase crime in the medium and long run?

[Acajack]

Interesting stuff happening in my riding. The Bloc may be on the verge of a repeat win and holding onto its first seat in the urban capital region:

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-droit/e...lle-serree.php

Interesting how the wishful thinkers in the Ottawa media have for weeks been abuzz about the NDP's Boivin beating Bloquiste Nadeau hands down. The NDP has been so gung-ho on their chances in Gatineau that Jack Layton has been around at least twice (perhaps three times) in order to support Françoise Boivin.

What I suspected is happening: although lots of people like Boivin and have moved over to her, many people in Gatineau are Liberals first and foremost, no matter who the candidate is. So this hurts Boivin, who as an NDPer can't scoop enough of them up (some older Liberals probably equate the NDP with communism - seriously). Add to the fact that the Liberals have a huge machine (the biggest in fact) in the riding, whereas the NDP is barely a skeleton crew.

Tory Denis Tassé, despite being a fairly weak candidate, is benefiting from the relative strength of the Tories' national campaign. It would appear he is riding just on that.

So the (majority) federalist vote is split up almost exactly in three.

And Nadeau's 33% support is almost bang-on with the % who voted Oui in this riding in the 1995 independence referendum. I just can't see his numbers going down. At the most he'll pick up a few points from the undecided group.

So Françoise Boivin is left with the huge task of working with a tiny organization to try and move, in about two weeks, from 21% to at least 37 or 38%, where she's going to have to end up if she is to beat Nadeau. It's not impossible, but it'll be really tough at this point I'd say. If I were the national NDP I'd pitch in to give her a hand.

[Dado]

* bump *

[Luker]

Originally Posted by Aylmer

Great. Throw away the key and their future.
How can this NOT increase crime in the medium and long run?

^ its true...

The $10 million on prevention puts it all in prospective...

[rodionx]

Whoa! I just looked at the dates. Deja vu all over again. Are any Ottawa-Gatineau ridings likely to flip this time around? I'm in Ottawa Centre and I have no doubt that the NDP's Paul Dewar will win again. His operatives are all over the place.

[Cre47]

Hard to say, neither Ignatieff or Harper have made anything to distance much themselves, but the AG leak will probably play out. Layton probably was the winner tonight. Most animated/most enthusiastic, explained the most on his policies and unlike the other main two leaders, didn't repeat nearly as much and did some pretty big jabs at not only Harper but Ignatieff as well. Hearing both Harper and Ignatieff repeating the same old same old thing all debate long was just tedious.

Considering, my riding has no chance of electing a Conservative (in fact no signs from them yet since they don't seem to care about the city of Gatineau just contenting on parachuting candidates from outside the region), strategical voting will be less likely, except, if the polls are much tighter between the two.

As for seeing seat changes, I would say Baird, Lemieux and Galipeau's seats are not safe. For the Grits, Proulx's seat Hull-Aylmer is not safe unless the AG leak impact has a bigger impact. Nadeau's seat in Gatineau is not safe and probably also Cannon's seat. The only really safe seat in the Outaouais is Mr. Laframboise's seat in the Papineau region. I would say the hardest working MPs in the NCR region are probably the two MPs from the Bloc, and no I'm not a separatist fan at all. Dewar might come third but I'm not impressed with the rest especially the Conservative MPs.

[toaster]

Originally Posted by rodionx

Whoa! I just looked at the dates. Deja vu all over again. Are any Ottawa-Gatineau ridings likely to flip this time around? I'm in Ottawa Centre and I have no doubt that the NDP's Paul Dewar will win again. His operatives are all over the place.

Gatineau will probably flip from BQ to NDP, and Ottawa-Orleans might go from CON to LIB. Outside change that Hull-Aylmer goes NDP too, considering NDP is at 20% in Quebec, highest it's ever been and higher than all other federalist parties.

Also, one thing I've never understood is why the Kanata riding is named Careleton - Mississippi Mills instead of Ottawa - Kanata like it's neighbor to the East (Ottawa - Orleans is not named "Cumberland - Rockland").

[Cre47]

Originally Posted by toaster

Gatineau will probably flip from BQ to NDP, and Ottawa-Orleans might go from CON to LIB. Outside change that Hull-Aylmer goes NDP too, considering NDP is at 20% in Quebec, highest it's ever been and higher than all other federalist parties.

Also, one thing I've never understood is why the Kanata riding is named Careleton - Mississippi Mills instead of Ottawa - Kanata like it's neighbor to the East (Ottawa - Orleans is not named "Cumberland - Rockland").

There is still another riding east of Ottawa-Orleans that includes parts of Ottawa. The Glengarry-Prescott-Russell riding does include some of the extreme east Orleans suburbs east of Trim Road as well and all the Cumberland Village. Although I wouldn't be surprised that in the next ridings re-alignment, that neighborhood might be annexed to Ottawa-Orleans which should be logically. This neighborhood started to built after the previous riding re-alignment.

I wouldn't be surprised if a Ottawa-Kanata riding will be created for the next election since both Kanata and Stittsville will have a total of at least 125 000 which should be more than enough for it's own riding. I think with the last Census data, the two cities probably had 50% of the population of the riding, now it's probably closer to 75%. Even then, the current riding doesn't make sense, since it might give an impression that it is specifically a rural riding.

[Dado]

Originally Posted by toaster

Gatineau will probably flip from BQ to NDP, and Ottawa-Orleans might go from CON to LIB. Outside change that Hull-Aylmer goes NDP too, considering NDP is at 20% in Quebec, highest it's ever been and higher than all other federalist parties.

Also, one thing I've never understood is why the Kanata riding is named Careleton - Mississippi Mills instead of Ottawa - Kanata like it's neighbor to the East (Ottawa - Orleans is not named "Cumberland - Rockland").

Have you looked at the map of the riding itself?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carleton—Mississippi_Mills

It encompasses the western parts of the former RMOC / Carleton County (former townships of West Carleton and Goulbourn) and the 'town' of Mississippi Mills (in geographical reality a township) in Lanark County. Granted, it also includes Kanata.

The name of the riding could do with including 'Kanata' in it, but there's no particular rationale to include 'Ottawa' in the name. There are plenty of ridings in Toronto that don't have 'Toronto' in their name, after all, and there's Nepean-Carleton.

As Cre47 notes, it'll probably be sorted out in the next electoral map revision (my guess is Kanata-Stittsville, though it depends also on what happens to the rest of the 'Carleton' portion of the riding).

[reidjr]

Originally Posted by Cre47

There is still another riding east of Ottawa-Orleans that includes parts of Ottawa. The Glengarry-Prescott-Russell riding does include some of the extreme east Orleans suburbs east of Trim Road as well and all the Cumberland Village. Although I wouldn't be surprised that in the next ridings re-alignment, that neighborhood might be annexed to Ottawa-Orleans which should be logically. This neighborhood started to built after the previous riding re-alignment.

I wouldn't be surprised if a Ottawa-Kanata riding will be created for the next election since both Kanata and Stittsville will have a total of at least 125 000 which should be more than enough for it's own riding. I think with the last Census data, the two cities probably had 50% of the population of the riding, now it's probably closer to 75%. Even then, the current riding doesn't make sense, since it might give an impression that it is specifically a rural riding.

You can't just go by population if you do nepean should be on there own many toronto areas would have there own ridings meaning we would likely see 50% more ridings which would not be a good thing.What might happen is they could split it up make kanata-carleton which could include all of kanata and parts of nepean such as bells corners.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by toaster

Gatineau will probably flip from BQ to NDP, and Ottawa-Orleans might go from CON to LIB. Outside change that Hull-Aylmer goes NDP too, considering NDP is at 20% in Quebec, highest it's ever been and higher than all other federalist parties.

Gatineau is really up in the air between Nadeau and Boivin. Not sure if it's a sure gain for the NDP. Nadeau might hold onto it still. The divided federalist vote is at play once again here. The Liberal candidate Steve McKinnon seems pretty good (perhaps stronger than the one last time) and he has the big local machine behind him. He will keep many federalist votes away from Boivin.

Hull-Aylmer going NDP would be a big surprise. Nycole Turmel is a good NDP candidate but the Liberal roots run really deep there. I'd bet on Liberal Marcel Proulx holding onto it for sure.

[Cre47]

Originally Posted by Dado

Have you looked at the map of the riding itself?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carleton—Mississippi_Mills

It encompasses the western parts of the former RMOC / Carleton County (former townships of West Carleton and Goulbourn) and the 'town' of Mississippi Mills (in geographical reality a township) in Lanark County. Granted, it also includes Kanata.

The name of the riding could do with including 'Kanata' in it, but there's no particular rationale to include 'Ottawa' in the name. There are plenty of ridings in Toronto that don't have 'Toronto' in their name, after all, and there's Nepean-Carleton.

As Cre47 notes, it'll probably be sorted out in the next electoral map revision (my guess is Kanata-Stittsville, though it depends also on what happens to the rest of the 'Carleton' portion of the riding).

It is possible that rural Ottawa might stay in the same riding as Kanata while Arnprior and Almonte might go the Renfrew-Pembrooke riding.

The urban core of the city might see some changes for sure. Bells Corners will likely be removed from Nepean-Carleton (and it didn't make sense anyways to have it with that riding) and probably or most likely be within the Ottawa-West Nepean riding. There might be a possibility of adding the section between the Rail-line and Hunt Club Road (Tanglewood, Craig Henry, Trend-Arlington Mills. Nepean-Carleton would probably get anything south of Hunt Club west of the River and south of the Airport and Leitrim east of it and the rural SE part.

Ottawa-Vanier might move a bit further east if Ottawa-Orleans will include exclusively just Orleans although it might still have areas just east of Blair and Blackburn Hamlet as well.

Ottawa Centre and Ottawa South might not change much.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Dado

Have you looked at the map of the riding itself?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carleton—Mississippi_Mills

It encompasses the western parts of the former RMOC / Carleton County (former townships of West Carleton and Goulbourn) and the 'town' of Mississippi Mills (in geographical reality a township) in Lanark County. Granted, it also includes Kanata.

The name of the riding could do with including 'Kanata' in it, but there's no particular rationale to include 'Ottawa' in the name. There are plenty of ridings in Toronto that don't have 'Toronto' in their name, after all, and there's Nepean-Carleton.

As Cre47 notes, it'll probably be sorted out in the next electoral map revision (my guess is Kanata-Stittsville, though it depends also on what happens to the rest of the 'Carleton' portion of the riding).

Based on population trends in the area, my prediction for Ottawa and the region at redistribution is this:

* Ottawa Centre shifts to focus on downtown and the inner city, gaining areas east of downtown but loses some areas in the west.
* Ottawa-Vanier loses the Lower Town and Sandy Hill areas to Ottawa Centre. However it gains Blackburn Hamlet and parts of central Gloucester.
* Ottawa South is virtually unchanged, just picking up pieces here and there.
* Ottawa-Orleans loses Blackburn Hamlet and central Gloucester, focusing on Orleans. A few areas are gained from Glengarry-Prescott-Russell to align with the urban boundary.
* All of rural Cumberland moves in with Prescott-Russell into a realigned riding, call it Cumberland-Prescott-Russell.
* Ottawa West-Nepean gets realigned, picking up parts of the areas west of downtown but loses the portions in the former city of Nepean. The riding is renamed Ottawa West as it no longer covers Nepean.
* Nepean-Carleton gets split, creating a new riding, call it Ottawa-Barrhaven, formed with Barrhaven, rural Nepean south of Fallowfield Road, Leitrim, rural south Gloucester, Riverside South, Osgoode and Rideau. The remainder, including Nepean Centre, Bayshore and Bells Corners should join with the Nepean parts of Ottawa West-Nepean to form a new riding, call it Ottawa-Nepean. If more population is needed, it could also pick up from Ottawa Centre the area south of Baseline Road in the former City of Ottawa near Meadowlands/Prince of Wales.
* Kanata and Stittsville form their own riding, perhaps called Ottawa-Kanata.
* Rural Goulbourn and West Carleton join with all of Lanark County, reforming the old Lanark-Carleton riding.

Results: 1 new seat for Ottawa (Ottawa-Nepean). Likely Ottawa West becomes the open seat (and a possible Liberal gain?) since I would think John Baird would run in Ottawa-Nepean.

In rural eastern Ontario:

* Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry should all become one riding, named as that.
* Likewise, Leeds-Grenville should remain as it is now, as should Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke.
* Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington, Kingston and the Islands and Prince Edward-Hastings get redrawn into three new ridings, adding Quinte West but dropping Lanark County (that is outside the Ottawa area completely now).

[Cre47]

CKOI poll puts the NDP ahead in Gatineau basically confirming the trend of the uprise of the NDP and the stagnation of the old school not just in Quebec but in Bc, Atlantic Canada and even the Prairies they start to rise as well. Only province left is Ontario. Actually one poll is giving a Conservative Minority with the NDP as official opposition. This possibility looks more and more possible considering the Liberals being stagnate and the scandals involving the CPC and especially the PMO keeps on piling a rapid pace.

I haven't seen any polls for Hull-Aylmer, but I wouldn't be shocked if the NDP would be leading there as well.

The Bloc is worried that the NDP would advantage the Tories, but the latter seems to be dropping as well in Quebec.

[reidjr]

Originally Posted by Cre47

CKOI poll puts the NDP ahead in Gatineau basically confirming the trend of the uprise of the NDP and the stagnation of the old school not just in Quebec but in Bc, Atlantic Canada and even the Prairies they start to rise as well. Only province left is Ontario. Actually one poll is giving a Conservative Minority with the NDP as official opposition. This possibility looks more and more possible considering the Liberals being stagnate and the scandals involving the CPC and especially the PMO keeps on piling a rapid pace.

I haven't seen any polls for Hull-Aylmer, but I wouldn't be shocked if the NDP would be leading there as well.

The Bloc is worried that the NDP would advantage the Tories, but the latter seems to be dropping as well in Quebec.

What i think may worry the bloc is the ndp seems more willing to work with harper and company then the liberals and bloc.

[Temperance]

The conservatives are pretty anti-Ottawa, as it represents the Canadian "elite". If Harper gets back in its pretty bad news for the city.

[Ottawan]

Originally Posted by Temperance

The conservatives are pretty anti-Ottawa, as it represents the Canadian "elite". If Harper gets back in its pretty bad news for the city.

Not only that, but they emphasize balancing the budget through cuts to programs & attrition (so a smaller workforce) more than the other parties. Additionally, they are the most pro-decentralization and emphasizing provincial prerogatives of the national parties. Whatever your politics, the Conservatives would be bad for our local economy.