California High Speed Rail Thread

[SoCalKid]

We're all completely ignoring the fact that this train would allow companies to set up back-office and low cost operations in places like Bakersfield and Fresno while maintaining a quick and convenient connection to headquarters locations in LA and SF. I think that's where the real opportunity for the Central Valley cities is. Managers could easily visit their Central Valley locations on a weekly basis without having to spend the night. That's a big deal.

[plutonicpanda]

Originally Posted by eltodesukane

"Q. The High-Speed Rail Authority was established 23 years ago. During that time China has built 16,000 miles of high-speed rail. We are still working on the first 119 miles. What are we doing wrong?"

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/18/u...peed-rail.html

Comparing China to the US... whatever. That is almost as absurd how posters here like to compare Europe to the U.S., but not that absurd.

[Busy Bee]

What are we doing wrong?"

Not having a single party communist state controlled planned economy using hundreds of billions of foreign debt as capital.

But I still wouldn't want to trade places.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by SoCalKid

We're all completely ignoring the fact that this train would allow companies to set up back-office and low cost operations in places like Bakersfield and Fresno while maintaining a quick and convenient connection to headquarters locations in LA and SF. I think that's where the real opportunity for the Central Valley cities is. Managers could easily visit their Central Valley locations on a weekly basis without having to spend the night. That's a big deal.

Streetcar suburb to High Speed suburb?
It's a viable option especially if the system were to expand.

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by TWAK

Streetcar suburb to High Speed suburb?
It's a viable option especially if the system were to expand.

Is there really such a thing as a viable HSR suburb? At $100 a work day for a round trip ticket you're spending $26,000 of you after tax income each year in travel. That's like 50% of the median family income.

[numble]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

Is there really such a thing as a viable HSR suburb? At $100 a work day for a round trip ticket you're spending $26,000 of you after tax income each year in travel. That's like 50% of the median family income.

Anaheim to Los Angeles would take 22 minutes and had a projected fare of $19.

[FresnoHobbit]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

Is there really such a thing as a viable HSR suburb? At $100 a work day for a round trip ticket you're spending $26,000 of you after tax income each year in travel. That's like 50% of the median family income.

The median home price is San Francisco is about $1,400,000 while the median home price in Fresno is about $220,000. If you amortize the difference over 30 years, your mortgage payment will be $69,000 higher per year in SF - so the ticket price would not be the deterrent, but you would have to spend the time commuting.

[northbay]

Originally Posted by FresnoHobbit

The median home price is San Francisco is about $1,400,000 while the median home price in Fresno is about $220,000. If you amortize the difference over 30 years, your mortgage payment will be $69,000 higher per year in SF - so the ticket price would not be the deterrent, but you would have to spend the time commuting.

Welcome to the forum!

The beauty of trains is with a laptop, you can work while riding them. With WiFi and outlets, passengers can work during their ‘commute.’

[SoCalKid]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

Is there really such a thing as a viable HSR suburb? At $100 a work day for a round trip ticket you're spending $26,000 of you after tax income each year in travel. That's like 50% of the median family income.

See my previous post

"We're all completely ignoring the fact that this train would allow companies to set up back-office and low cost operations in places like Bakersfield and Fresno while maintaining a quick and convenient connection to headquarters locations in LA and SF. I think that's where the real opportunity for the Central Valley cities is. Managers could easily visit their Central Valley locations on a weekly basis without having to spend the night. That's a big deal."

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

Is there really such a thing as a viable HSR suburb?

Yes it is, as long as everybody works together.
Another way to look at it as, TOD. The station happens to be HSR.

At $100 a work day for a round trip ticket you're spending $26,000 of you after tax income each year in travel. That's like 50% of the median family income.

It seems ticket prices are going by if you like the project or not.
What are actual reliable prices?
and 50% of an income from what part of the state?

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by FresnoHobbit

The median home price is San Francisco is about $1,400,000 while the median home price in Fresno is about $220,000. If you amortize the difference over 30 years, your mortgage payment will be $69,000 higher per year in SF - so the ticket price would not be the deterrent, but you would have to spend the time commuting.

OK, but only the most wealthy people can ever consider one of those San Francisco houses so it's not really a representation of the average commuter, only the top 1% commuter. Additionally there are still lots of other advantages to living in the city aside from just time to work.

Originally Posted by TWAK

It seems ticket prices are going by if you like the project or not.

You do realize my projection was very low right? I was trying to give a best case scenario. The cost to take the Acela a similar distance would be significantly higher than what I quoted.

[SoCalKid]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

OK, but only the most wealthy people can ever consider one of those San Francisco houses so it's not really a representation of the average commuter, only the top 1% commuter. Additionally there are still lots of other advantages to living in the city aside from just time to work.


You do realize my projection was very low right? I was trying to give a best case scenario. The cost to take the Acela a similar distance would be significantly higher than what I quoted.

you seem to be very conveniently and consistently missing my comment that the point would not be for daily commuting, but for satellite offices that would then be more easily accessed from HQ locations in LA/SF on a weekly/bi-weekly/monthly basis.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by numble

Anaheim to Los Angeles would take 22 minutes and had a projected fare of $19.

Is that 19 each way? If so, that's 38 dollars a day(if we are to believe their projections, of course).

Or that's 760 a month to get to just work. Is it workable? Sure. But if you live so far out in the burbs for affordability that you take a HSR to work everyday, I highly doubt you could live without your car in said suburb. So you're adding around 760 a month to get to work while still needing all the spending for a car. Not feasible. Even with my 2016 car with a note, my monthly spending is around 700 dollars (Note/gas/insurance/parking/depreciation/maintenance).

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by FresnoHobbit

The median home price is San Francisco is about $1,400,000 while the median home price in Fresno is about $220,000. If you amortize the difference over 30 years, your mortgage payment will be $69,000 higher per year in SF - so the ticket price would not be the deterrent, but you would have to spend the time commuting.

But, lets not kid ourselves. The person looking for a 1.4 million dollars home isn't the same person who would look at a 220k home in Fresno. And if all you could afford is a 220k home in Fresno, what would your typical income look like? Probably be between 50-70k. After mortgage, and your car costs you WILL have, the cost of using HSR to get to work becomes unworkable in any meaningful way.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by SoCalKid

We're all completely ignoring the fact that this train would allow companies to set up back-office and low cost operations in places like Bakersfield and Fresno while maintaining a quick and convenient connection to headquarters locations in LA and SF. I think that's where the real opportunity for the Central Valley cities is. Managers could easily visit their Central Valley locations on a weekly basis without having to spend the night. That's a big deal.

Has that ever happened, anywhere on the planet?

In Western Europe, HSR has been a tool for agglomeration of cities, and depopulation of the countryside. Why would some firm currently in SF move to Bakersfield just because there's a faster train to Bakersfield?

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

But, lets not kid ourselves. The person looking for a 1.4 million dollars home isn't the same person who would look at a 220k home in Fresno. And if all you could afford is a 220k home in Fresno, what would your typical income look like? Probably be between 50-70k. After mortgage, and your car costs you WILL have, the cost of using HSR to get to work becomes unworkable in any meaningful way.

Why not? There's plenty of middle class couples/families making a combined $200k+ a year that COULD afford a $1.4 million 1000-1500 sq ft crappy house in the Bay Area but would then be forced to live frugally, barely scraping by, that would be more than willing to move to Fresno for a $500,000-$800,000 3000+ sq ft home with luxury amenities, a driveway, a yard, and have enough leftover to save, travel, and still be able to afford using HSR daily.

[BrownTown]

Originally Posted by numble

Anaheim to Los Angeles would take 22 minutes and had a projected fare of $19.

1. There's a big difference in distance between Anaheim and Bakersfield.

2. That $19 is pretty meaningless at this point. Why would you think this train would cost so much less than the Acela which didn't have nearly the same Capital costs to deploy?

[SoCalKid]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Has that ever happened, anywhere on the planet?

In Western Europe, HSR has been a tool for agglomeration of cities, and depopulation of the countryside. Why would some firm currently in SF move to Bakersfield just because there's a faster train to Bakersfield?

A firm in SF might open it's back-office location, with $50k/year accounting employees, to Fresno, not it's whole operation.

Agreed that it would be a tool of agglomeration, I would just now include Fresno and Bakersfield in the equation.

[FresnoHobbit]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

But, lets not kid ourselves. The person looking for a 1.4 million dollars home isn't the same person who would look at a 220k home in Fresno. And if all you could afford is a 220k home in Fresno, what would your typical income look like? Probably be between 50-70k. After mortgage, and your car costs you WILL have, the cost of using HSR to get to work becomes unworkable in any meaningful way.

I would never commute that distance if the job paid the same as local jobs - people commute to get the higher paying job without the higher cost of living in large urban areas. Fresno would just be another option for a place to live instead of Walnut Creek, Concord, Livermore etc. And you can get much more home for 400K in Fresno than 1.4 million buys you in SF. However, I agree that it would be better to relocate some jobs to Central Valley cities instead of daily comuting

Regardless, I think the larger problem is that the HSR first shied away from building the crossing over the Tehachapies, which is the biggest challenge for the planned alignment, and they haven't started tunneling through the Pacheco Pass yet - the less they make a new world record in tunneling it looks like a big delay ahead

[numble]

Originally Posted by BrownTown

1. There's a big difference in distance between Anaheim and Bakersfield.

2. That $19 is pretty meaningless at this point. Why would you think this train would cost so much less than the Acela which didn't have nearly the same Capital costs to deploy?

Your quote does not mention Bakersfield. Why would you bring up Bakersfield?

How much is Acela for the equivalent distance from Anaheim to Los Angeles?
How much do you think the cost would be on HSR between Anaheim to Los Angeles.
Metrolink already runs between Anaheim and Los Angeles at a slower speed for $9.