Canada's 4th city

[king10]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Population
1 Toronto
2 Montreal
3 Vancouver
4 Calgary

Head Offices
1 Toronto
2 Montreal
3 Vancouver
4 Calgary

Canada’s busiest airports Total Passengers
1 Toronto (44,800,000)
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.
.
2 Vancouver (25,000,000)
3 Montreal (21,000,000)
4 Calgary (18,500,000)
.
.
.
.
5 Edmonton (8,500,000)
.
.
.
6 Ottawa (4,100,000)


Safe to say Calgary is a lock at #4

Not safe. Need to look at CMA not city population.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by king10

Not safe. Need to look at CMA not city population.

Good call. I just checked, the internet is telling me Calgary CMA more populous than Ottawa and Edmonton.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by AuxTown

The actual breakdown of the Ottawa workforce (from 2016)


https://ofl.ca/wp-content/uploads/HU...OTTAWA-POM.pdf

I think many forget that, in addition to our federal government workforce, we have 2 large universities (and multiple large colleges), a robust and growing tech sector and is a large regional healthcare hub.

Tech centres in Canada
Toronto: 289,700 tech workers in 2021, up 88,900 (44 per cent) since 2016.
Montreal: 148,900 tech workers in 2021, up 31,200 (27 per cent) since 2016.
Vancouver: 115,400 tech workers in 2021, up 44,460 (63 per cent) since 2016.
Ottawa: 81,200 tech workers in 2021, up 14,800 (22 per cent) since 2016.
Calgary: 40,600 tech workers in 2021, up 7,400 (22 per cent) since 2016.
Quebec City: 35,700 tech workers in 2021, up 10,700 (43 per cent) since 2016.
Edmonton: 32,400 tech workers in 2021, up 9,200 (40 per cent) since 2016.
Waterloo Region: 24,000 tech workers in 2021, up 1,800 (eight per cent) since 2016.
(from https://communitech.ca/technews/cana...p-50-list.html)

Ottawa would be the 4th city to me just based on geography. Within a 600km radius of Ottawa (a reasonable drive or a short flight) there are over 50 million people. For Calgary, it is about 7 million.

Originally Posted by DesignerGuy

Ottawa here. Not everyone in town works for the federal government. We have a large tech workforce. Don't forget Shopify was founded in Ottawa.

This is a constant refrain from Ottawa folks and it completely ignores how much of the private sector in Ottawa in Ottawa depends on federal spending directly or indirectly. It's not just about the Public Service. It's not like average consumers can go shopping at Lockheed Martin Canada or CMC Electronics or Accenture. And a lot of those employees would be classified as private sector tech workers.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Demand from people relocating from Ontario has been cited as a driver of our price increases here in NS so I find it hard to believe that a major city directly in Ontario wouldn't be affected by relocation from the dominant population center.

A lot of that was probably a one-off COVID event. And that's looking to reverse now. In general, as companies go hybrid, I suspect finding fully remote roles will be difficult. The most flexibility is probably going to be reserved for the most skilled workers. I'm going to assume the majority of PS layoffs aren't going to fall into that category for the private sector.

Originally Posted by niwell

A junior policy analyst no, but a senior analyst or manager later in their career taking a package / early retirement could probably find some consulting gigs. People I know from the OPS did exactly this when offered packages. Lots of people in these positions in Ottawa likely own their property which helps.

There's a difference this time. A good chunk of the government departments and job fields that grew are in areas that would not easily translate to the private sector. And it's highly likely some of this will be wholesale downsizing of entire departments. So a lot more junior than senior employees or management. Also, consulting gigs when you can pitch access. All these recent scandals are definitely going to any incoming government on their toes for these kinds of relationships.

[casper]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

A lot of that was probably a one-off COVID event. And that's looking to reverse now. In general, as companies go hybrid, I suspect finding fully remote roles will be difficult. The most flexibility is probably going to be reserved for the most skilled workers. I'm going to assume the majority of PS layoffs aren't going to fall into that category for the private sector.

There are some companies that have managed to pull off complete work from home, but hybrid is becoming more and more common.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

There's a difference this time. A good chunk of the government departments and job fields that grew are in areas that would not easily translate to the private sector. And it's highly likely some of this will be wholesale downsizing of entire departments. So a lot more junior than senior employees or management. Also, consulting gigs when you can pitch access. All these recent scandals are definitely going to any incoming government on their toes for these kinds of relationships.

Conservatives. They are likely to offer some early retirements to push higher cost staff out. Cut contractors (easy one with no union protests). Hiring freezes and readjustment of staff to fill holes. After that some layoffs.

I don't know how effective these former employees are at pitching access to government in the private sector.

[EpicPonyTime]

Originally Posted by king10

Not safe. Need to look at CMA not city population.

That is the CMA. If you're only counting the city population, Calgary is twice the size of Vancouver and Ottawa is 4th. Vancouver would be 8th.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by casper

There are some companies that have managed to pull off complete work from home, but hybrid is becoming more and more common.

Indeed. Which is why this idea that several thousand ex-PS could simply get remote jobs, is a bit a reach.

Originally Posted by casper

Conservatives. They are likely to offer some early retirements to push higher cost staff out. Cut contractors (easy one with no union protests). Hiring freezes and readjustment of staff to fill holes. After that some layoffs.

This is the conventional wisdom on how cuts would go. And that would be true if the cuts were evenly distributed. But it won't be like this time around. High PS growth under this government has been in several departments that the CPC does not align with. Environment and Climate Change,Indigenous Services, Women and Gender Equity, CRA, CIB, etc. Several of those departments are going to be facing substantial cuts or even elimination. Meanwhile, other departments (like say Defence) maybe not so much.

Originally Posted by casper

I don't know how effective these former employees are at pitching access to government in the private sector.

Two problems a lot of these former employees might face:

1) Heightened sensitivity in the post ArriveCan era.

2) The very departments that are most familiar with and could lobby, consult for, etc will be the ones getting downsized and facing the least interest and demand from government.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by EpicPonyTime

That is the CMA. If you're only counting the city population, Calgary is twice the size of Vancouver and Ottawa is 4th. Vancouver would be 8th.

Ottawa and Edmonton city proper populations are virtually identical.

Calgary city proper population has about 300,000 more than either. It'd be hard for either Ottawa or Edmonton to catch up to it.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Ottawa and Edmonton city proper populations are virtually identical.

Calgary city proper population has about 300,000 more than either. It'd be hard for either Ottawa or Edmonton to catch up to it.

Maybe we should stop talking about a top four, and just accept the fact there is a "top five,"

Calgary wins in terms of regional importance, business culture and population.

Ottawa wins in terms of political importance and international stature.

Edmonton is the clear also-ran (for now)........

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by harls

This is just turning into another city vs. city pissing match.

Just like the good ol' days.

yep. Remember the famous Calgary-Okotoks vs. Montreal pissing matches (largely driven by one person, who shall remain nameless)? Jacksonville vs. Toronto?

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by harls

This is just turning into another city vs. city pissing match.

Just like the good ol' days.

The question itself is pretty much a segue into a pissing match.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by lio45

Montreal is adding more people per year than Vancouver, in other words the population gap between the two is increasing every passing year. i.e. Montreal is growing and leaving Vancouver behind.

Growth rates are medieval thinking; I guess our homo sapiens brains are basically wired to assume that everyone stays their entire life in the same village in which they were born and population growth only comes from the rate at which the locals are having babies.

The only useful use of growth rate these days (in a country like Canada) is to measure approximate infrastructure strain.

Hmm, my understanding is that Vancouver has been growing at about the same absolute growth rate, more or less, as Montreal for a long time now, which indicates a much higher rate per capita. While it is not catching it any time soon, the difference between a City of 2 million and a city of 1 million is far more vast than the differences between a city of 6 million and one of 5 million, which is more where I see Montreal and Vancouver going.

Originally Posted by ssiguy

Vancouver is definitely NOT a business centre. It has a larger economy than Calgary but a business centre is exactly that........a centre of business. Vancouver is only home to 4 of Canada's largest companies and the largest, Tech Resources, only clocks in at #20. Calgary is home to 9 and has several in the top 10.

Vancouver's has a lot of important sectors like tech, tourism, film, and especially it's Port but that does not make it a business centre. It is no more a business centre than Calgary is a manufacturing one.

First off it's Teck Resources, not Tech....

Second, its not the largest in Vancouver, it's not even second.
If Vancouver is not a business centre what exactly are those people in 75million square feet of office space doing? Making Kombucha?

A lot of medium sized businesses are still businesses....

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

yep. Remember the famous Calgary-Okotoks vs. Montreal pissing matches (largely driven by one person, who shall remain nameless)? Jacksonville vs. Toronto?

It's either this or post construction pictures. Gotta make the time pass somehow!

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It's a bit of a cliché but Calgary's lows are a lot lower (in bust times) but its highs are also quite a bit higher. Calgary as a result is for example a much better luxury retail city than Ottawa is, for everything from expensive clothes to fine champagne.

I think that's changing quite a bit. I don't have numbers to support that, but it feels like there is less of the big, extravagant money being thrown around Calgary these days. I used to work for a company that catered to the big spenders and business is down for that kind of thing. I don't know about wages, but it wouldn't surprise me if the median wage was the same or higher, but the high end wage bracket is down, or at least less people in it.

[jc_yyc_ca]

Originally Posted by Harrison

Industrial makes a lot of sense, considering the Edmonton area has tons of industrial land and is more centrally-located in the province. I think industrial land is cheaper here as well.

Originally Posted by lio45

Regarding whoever said Calgary is a logistics hub, when I lived in Vancouver I discovered that the business/logistics hub for the entirety of Western Canada in my sector of business (industrial) was usually Edmonton. Things that we needed in Vancouver and couldn’t find locally had to come from the Big City, i.e. Edmonton

(I have no dog in this fight, I’m neutral about Van-Cal-Edm. Didn’t even know who to root for of the Oilers or Canucks.)

The topic of who's the logistic hub of Western Canada is a moniker thrown around a fair bit. Calgary gets mentioned, but of course, it may also depend on how things are defined. I don't think it's a stretch to say Calgary's a logistics hub. How much of this is accurate or skewed to make their point, I don't know. How it ranks among other cities, hard to say exactly as I'm sure there are lots of variables, but these are some of the things that would make it a logistics hub.

Some people make the claim that Calgary is western Canada's logistic hub, or the largest logistic hub between Toronto and Vancouver.

This guy calls Calgary, Western Canada's undisputed logistic hub.
https://www.inboundlogistics.com/art...tribution-hub/

Superior access to markets, the availability of serviced land, massive warehousing and logistics parks, cost-effective business environments and a highly skilled labor force combine, unprecedented regional growth and the ability and foresight to meet future market needs… Calgary has become a global transportation hub and Western Canada’s undisputed distribution center and inland port.

These guys (City of Calgary pumping themselves) claim Calgary is Canada's second largest inland Hub after Toronto.
https://www.calgaryeconomicdevelopme...and-logistics-
hub/#:~:text=Calgary%20is%20a%20key%20transportation,by%20air%2C%20rail%20and%20ground.


Couldn't find a lot of actual stats, except that Calgary does 75% of Alberta air cargo so it safe to say Calgary is at least in the conversation.

[lio45]

“Calgary is the largest logistic hub between Toronto and Vancouver” is kinda meaningless.

Winnipeg is the largest logistic hub between Calgary/Edmonton and Toronto.
Halifax is the largest logistic hub east of Quebec City.
Ottawa is the largest logistic hub between Montreal and Toronto.
Thunder Bay is the largest logistic hub between Winnipeg and Eastern Ontario.
Okotoks is the largest logistic hub between Calgary and High River.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by lio45

“Calgary is the largest logistic hub between Toronto and Vancouver” is kinda meaningless.

Winnipeg is the largest logistic hub between Calgary/Edmonton and Toronto.
Halifax is the largest logistic hub east of Quebec City.
Ottawa is the largest logistic hub between Montreal and Toronto.
Thunder Bay is the largest logistic hub between Winnipeg and Eastern Ontario.
Okotoks is the largest logistic hub between Calgary and High River.

You forgot how big this country is, it's almost like Russia. Vancouver is a termination point far from the gravitational centre of Toronto, but the east coast doesn't really have one.

[goodgrowth]

On a long enough timeline BC effectively becomes a port for Alberta's economy.

One has lots of room for expanding industry the other has nooks and crannies with ocean access.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Architype

You forgot how big this country is, it's almost like Russia. Vancouver is a termination point far from the gravitational centre of Toronto, but the east coast doesn't really have one.

The East Coast kinda does: Montreal. But Montreal and Halifax kinda split traffic more.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

On a long enough timeline BC effectively becomes a port for Alberta's economy.

One has lots of room for expanding industry the other has nooks and crannies with ocean access.

Well except a lot of industry these days is not in making physical widgets but digital ones, which BC far outpaces Alberta in. And it doesn't need a ton of space either.

[goodgrowth]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Well except a lot of industry these days is not in making physical widgets but digital ones, which BC far outpaces Alberta in. And it doesn't need a ton of space either.

There is nothing unscathed in BC's cost environment. Including cognitive labour that is impacted by scarce residential land.

Wouldn't be surprised if Calgary starts siphoning tech jobs as well.