The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[Architype]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I took a raft of shit back then, from this lot, with suggestions that my bullish stance in EVs was delusional. And that was when I suggested 30% BEV marketshare by 2030 was attainable (the "30 by 30" campaign). We're already pushing 10% globally. Add in plug in hybrids and it's 15%. Looks like I was conservative.

I don't think EVs have proven themselves totally practical or environmentally sustainable just yet, there are too many concerns, range/cost problems, and unanswered questions like the actual carbon footprint. We are still far short of having them as the standard everyman everywhere vehicle, but that's not to say that they won't ever be.

[Truenorth00]

I never suggested back then that everybody would have an EV in 2 years.

[Nashe]

The number of people on social media who are "EV are a fad, will be gone within 5 years" is ... interesting to say the least.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I took a raft of shit back then, from this lot, with suggestions that my bullish stance in EVs was delusional.

Sure, but everyone reasonable (including, of course, me) was firmly siding with you against "this lot". They're the only ones who tried to argue your stance was "bullish". (And now, two years later, we know we were right and they were wrong.)

The oil industry has a clear self-interest in slowing EV adoption, so, no surprise there. "It's just a fad; what the people actually want/need is better horses."

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Nashe

The number of people on social media who are "EV are a fad, will be gone within 5 years" is ... interesting to say the least.

It really is mindboggling how pervasive this view is, even as major automakers are now basically pivoting to what Tesla did a decade ago, to avoid becoming the next Nokia, Kodak or Blockbuster.

[TorontoDrew]

Originally Posted by Architype

I don't think EVs have proven themselves totally practical or environmentally sustainable just yet, there are too many concerns, range/cost problems, and unanswered questions like the actual carbon footprint. We are still far short of having them as the standard everyman everywhere vehicle, but that's not to say that they won't ever be.

These issues will be resolved and fast. This is not only an environmental issue but one of global power status. The US will be pushing hard to lead the way so as to not let China essentially have the greatest share of the market. New estimates project that Electric vehicles will account for roughly 52% of the US market by 2030. Canada will be forced to follow suit assuming we don't take a more leading role.

Also as soon as Apples car hits the market interest and demand will skyrocket. Apparently Apples long term goal is to be an automotive and A.I company where in the future people will almost forget they were once a computer and cell phone company.

Inside sources expect the release date sometime in 2027 or early 2028. It's been delayed by 2 years. Plans are for a fully automated AI vehicle for highways, with manual operation on urban roads.

This info is from a bunch of sources i've been researching while investing.

Also a side note, not sure if any of you have seen that ridiculous ad by Samsung of a family hoping in their A.I car to go visit Gramma and they go into a tunnel, temporarily lose connection and the dad swerves to avoid bats. They make it safely to Gramma after some moves to avoid large chunks of hail as well.

So ya, Samsung is also developing it's own car.

The Electric car wave will hit fast and soon. And it's based on much more then just one thing like the environment or global influence, it's just as much about greed.

If people are looking to invest, I would suggest yanking most of you funds out of fossil fuels and parking them in companies that will be making the batteries needed, companies that will recycle the batteries, and companies mining the minerals for them.

Combustion engines days are numbered, as the main way we power our vehicles.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Architype

I don't think EVs have proven themselves totally practical or environmentally sustainable just yet, there are too many concerns, range/cost problems, and unanswered questions like the actual carbon footprint. We are still far short of having them as the standard everyman everywhere vehicle, but that's not to say that they won't ever be.

The concerns have been analyzed and the FUD has been debunked. They have less carbon emissions even when powered by coal fired electricity. The battery materials are all known quantities and chemistry is evolving over time.

Do we analyze ICE cars based on human rights in KSA and all processes involved from a ton of sandy oil sludge to a liter of unleaded into a vehicle?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Architype

I don't think EVs have proven themselves totally practical or environmentally sustainable just yet, there are too many concerns, range/cost problems, and unanswered questions like the actual carbon footprint. We are still far short of having them as the standard everyman everywhere vehicle, but that's not to say that they won't ever be.

And a lot of those issues won't come to light until 10-20 years after a lot of them have been on the road.

Another angle not mentioned is how their price point combines with government mandates are pushing vehicle ownership out of reach of the masses. Where have all the Nissan Micras, Honda Fits and Ford Fiestas gone? If you want a new car and are of modest means the choices are slim. That wasn't the case 10 years ago.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And a lot of those issues won't come to light until 10-20 years after a lot of them have been on the road.

We're at the point where some EVs have been on the road for a decade.

Originally Posted by whatnext

Another angle not mentioned is how their price point combines with government mandates are pushing vehicle ownership out of reach of the masses. Where have all the Nissan Micras, Honda Fits and Ford Fiestas gone? If you want a new car and are of modest means the choices are slim. That wasn't the case 10 years ago.

This has nothing to do with mandates. Smaller vehicle actually help automakers achieve targets. But automakers (particularly North American ones) have learned that margins suck on small cars. Instead, for only a slight increase in inputs, they can get double or triple the profit. And in an era of cheap money, consumers were more than happy to take on 84 month payments for $50k SUVs. Heck, the Big 3 restarting to even ramp production as chip shortages ease, should tell you exactly what they are thinking. They are flat out admitting to restricting inventory to push up yields. The only way out of this is new automakers jumping in, or other automakers (mostly Japanese) increasing production. Also, 8% auto loans, should help convince the OEMs, we need smaller cars again.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And a lot of those issues won't come to light until 10-20 years after a lot of them have been on the road.

What issues? What are you expecting to happen?

EVs are much simpler mechanical devices than ICE cars. They have expensive batteries, that's it.

[Tvisforme]

Yes, there have been reports in the past few days/weeks of sodium-ion batteries going into production for vehicles from collaborations between Chinese companies and Volkswagen and Renault.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by whatnext

...Where have all the Nissan Micras, Honda Fits and Ford Fiestas gone? If you want a new car and are of modest means the choices are slim. That wasn't the case 10 years ago.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

...automakers (particularly North American ones) have learned that margins suck on small cars. Instead, for only a slight increase in inputs, they can get double or triple the profit. And in an era of cheap money, consumers were more than happy to take on 84 month payments for $50k SUVs...

It's unfortunate but the market for sedans and small cars has taken a hit in North America. We're partial to Mazda, for example, but they have really scaled back their car products while introducing several many new SUV-class vehicles. The Mazda 6 was discontinued leaving the 3 as their only sedan/hatchback option.

[Truenorth00]

Yep. It's absolutely silly to blame EV mandates, when automakers are openly admitting that they are engineering a tight market in earnings calls. That ignorance does help them.

Automakers won’t go back to normal
By Jonathan Guilford

NEW YORK, Jan 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - For U.S. automakers, 2023 is all about trying to stay in their lane. Covid-19-era supply squeezes sent car prices soaring, adding $7 billion to operating profit at General Motors (GM.N)in 2021 alone. As supplies normalize, they’ll do everything they can to keep production tight. Their problem is that the Federal Reserve and international competitors are backseat driving.

After pandemic stimulus-rich buyers pushed car sales to an annualized rate of 18 million in April 2021, their highest level since before the great financial crisis, supply-chain snafus sent the industry into reverse. Shortages of everything from microchips to Ford Motor’s (F.N) blue oval badges left manufacturers unable to ship their cars. That left 2021 at around 15 million sales; full-year 2022 sales are likely to come in at 13.7 million, according to Cox Automotive.

The lost volume cost GM’s bottom line almost $5 billion in 2021 – so it jacked up prices on desperate buyers, more than making up for it. Ford, too, ended 2021 with its highest operating profit margin for five years.

The pricing power will inevitably unwind as problems from backed-up shipping to production shutdowns ease. But while supplies may return to normal, the industry might not follow suit.

A collapse in used-vehicle prices – the Manheim price index fell 14% year-over-year in November – leaves buyers with less money from trade-ins. The U.S. central bank is also raising rates, making auto loans more expensive. The double whammy is sure to dent demand.

https://www.reuters.com/breakingview...al-2023-01-04/

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And a lot of those issues won't come to light until 10-20 years after a lot of them have been on the road.

Another angle not mentioned is how their price point combines with government mandates are pushing vehicle ownership out of reach of the masses. Where have all the Nissan Micras, Honda Fits and Ford Fiestas gone? If you want a new car and are of modest means the choices are slim. That wasn't the case 10 years ago.

People stopped buying them so automakers stopped building them. That's it. Even when companies were still building them they were typically among the lowest volume sellers. Most people with that budget just go for the used market. Chevy still sells the Spark in Canada for another few months - they sold 4,000 of them last year. That same year, they sold nearly 14,000 Equinoxes and 53,000 Silverados.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If you want a new car and are of modest means the choices are slim.

And if you want a new McMansion in downtown Toronto and are of modest means, the choices are even more slim.

Used cars exist for a reason ...

[WarrenC12]

ZEV registrations topped 10 per cent Canadian market share in Q4 2022, S&P data shows

They include PHEVs in that data, but still impressive overall.

Among the three major Census Metropolitan Areas, Vancouver hit another major milestone in Q4 2022, as ZEVs reached 25 per cent market share — one in four new vehicles registered there were ZEVs.

[Truenorth00]

10% is still below global average. But very impressive given where we were 2-3 years ago.

Given where new car prices at, I don't know why anybody buying a new car wouldn't buy an EV. If you're going to spend $60k might as well get something that is cheaper to operate.

Personally, trying to hold out for the cheaper BEVs in 2025. Something like the Fisker Pear.

[urbandreamer]

As Elon Musk said at Investor Day last night, it's easy to sell electric cars to the rich; so Tesla's new focus is increasing production efficiency and launching a lower priced affordable car. I suspect it'll be a small CUV to compete with the likes of the 2024 Hyundai Kona EV and others in its class selling in Europe, and possibly a small sedan. Like I've said before, Model 3/Y are dated by automotive standards and are receiving face-lifts next year. CyberTruck is also spawning a CyberVan based on its chasis.

Fisker Pear claims a $30k USD launch price. I'm tempted to invest in Fisker stock except Henrik's track record is flaky.

Nissan is launching their eMicra in a few months.

For cheap ice cars, the current crop of used Micra/Mirage/Sparks should last beyond 300,000km and possibly to 500,000km: you'll be seeing mine on the road for at least 20 more years. I see MK4 Golf's with 400,000 km still going strong. In Alberta and especially BC, it's refreshing to see 30-40 year old Japanese and European cars still on the road as daily drivers. If the industry had built desirable small cars like they sold/sell in Europe North Americans would've bought them in droves. The reality is marketing and MSM has convinced us bigger is better. Ford, GM and Dodge are weak companies propped up by quite literally lazy fat mcmansion dwellers.

I'm skeptical EVs are any more sustainable than ICE. For example, reading about the tremendous amount of dump truck loads needed for the new Windsor EV plant was shocking. Dump trucks and construction equipment are probably the biggest carbon emitters along with flying, which is certainly what Canada's doing flying 500,000+ immigrants here every year. Climate change is just another excuse to enable the wealthy and educated to get wealthier at the expense of poor people.

[theman23]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

10% is still below global average. But very impressive given where we were 2-3 years ago.

Given where new car prices at, I don't know why anybody buying a new car wouldn't buy an EV. If you're going to spend $60k might as well get something that is cheaper to operate.

Personally, trying to hold out for the cheaper BEVs in 2025. Something like the Fisker Pear.

Personally, I'm holding off until there's a BEV sedan/wagon/hatchback that doesn't look like complete dog shit or costs six figures. The Ioniq6 was a big let down after the Ioniq5. Perhaps the Kia equivalent might be the answer?

[SpongeG]

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