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  #1  
Old Posted May 27, 2014, 11:58 PM
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Here's the link. It's the 2011 provincial election, so not quite apples-to-apples with federal trends (this is the province that simultaneously supported Mike Harris and Jean Chretien).

http://globalnews.ca/news/1306656/on...-poll-by-poll/

In Kanata, the main red zones are north of the 417, with Morgan's Grant & Beaverbrook almost all red. Morgan's Grant seems to also have the largest concentration of NDP support in Kanata, although its hard to tell with that map as the only way is by manually examining each poll and I'm way too lazy to count them all up.

Aside from that, Bridlewood, Katimivik-Hazeldean, and Kanata Lakes were about half red half blue, while Glen Cairn & Shirley's Brook were almost all blue. Interestingly enough it looks the Liberal support in Bridlewood is actually strongest in the newer areas.

Stittsville was almost entirely blue except for the extreme NW around Carp & Hazeldean that had some red areas.

All in all, looks to me like Kanata proper is mostly red.

Another interesting thing to see is the language divide at work. In Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, the more heavily francophone villages (like Casselman, Alexandria, and Hawkesbury) are very red, while the more anglophone areas like Russell, Vankleek Hill, and Maxville are blue.

Also of note in Eastern Ontario is the massive sea of red in Kingston which encompasses both the city & the suburbs and even spreads pretty deep into the surrounding countryside (rural communities near Kingston like Sydenham, Battersea, and Wolfe Island actually voted Liberal), as well as the large pockets of NDP support in Cornwall, which I was not expecting at all.

Another interesting fact is how sharp the divide is between Northern Ontario & Southern Ontario. There's literally a sharp line just south of Sudbury where blue suddenly gives way to orange.

Last edited by 1overcosc; May 28, 2014 at 2:12 AM.
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  #2  
Old Posted May 29, 2014, 10:00 PM
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Nice map. Too bad the new Kanata-Carleton riding doesn't apply for this election. (actually I don't think the LAO will have 15 more seats but should be riding size adjustments which I think Kanata would also deserve its own riding provincially instead of having all the rural areas included as wll) Still I guess they will be stuck with Jack MacLaren because of the rural areas of the riding.

Is there a similar map for the 2011 federal poll by poll results?
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Last edited by Cre47; May 29, 2014 at 11:22 PM.
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  #3  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2014, 1:25 PM
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One can only hope - but doubtful given the CFRA nation populating much of this constituency's rural mass.
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  #4  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2014, 1:30 PM
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One can only hope - but doubtful given the CFRA nation populating much of this constituency's rural mass.
A lot of the rural areas as well as Stittsville (which contributed to almost all of the PC margin win last June) will not be in the new riding - so there is hope for a switch. If Vern White changes his mind (since for now he is not considering to run) runs, he will have the extra burden of the Senate Scandal since he is in the Senate (even though not has not done anything wrong) Of course I wish they could have also put Fitzroy, Carp, Galletta and Dunrobin with the same riding as Arnprior (which I though was also in Carleton-Mississippi Mills, in the Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke riding.
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  #5  
Old Posted Jul 12, 2014, 2:36 PM
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A lot of the rural areas as well as Stittsville (which contributed to almost all of the PC margin win last June) will not be in the new riding - so there is hope for a switch. If Vern White changes his mind (since for now he is not considering to run) runs, he will have the extra burden of the Senate Scandal since he is in the Senate (even though not has not done anything wrong) Of course I wish they could have also put Fitzroy, Carp, Galletta and Dunrobin with the same riding as Arnprior (which I though was also in Carleton-Mississippi Mills, in the Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke riding.
The 2021 Census redistribution should eliminate the rural areas from the riding altogether though.
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Old Posted Jul 25, 2014, 9:28 PM
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FYI - I know it's Forum Research. The 50% (+18 for the Grits) in Ontario is probably the most worrisome for Harper though the MB/SK numbers might be skewed (usually it is the opposite).

Still it put a smile in my face... because of how much the Tories are trailing, not necessarily because the Grits are leading.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/F...20Research.pdf
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  #7  
Old Posted Jul 26, 2014, 1:46 AM
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FYI - I know it's Forum Research. The 50% (+18 for the Grits) in Ontario is probably the most worrisome for Harper though the MB/SK numbers might be skewed (usually it is the opposite).

Still it put a smile in my face... because of how much the Tories are trailing, not necessarily because the Grits are leading.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/F...20Research.pdf
While I personally don't like their divide and conquer politics, I feel pretty sure that the reformers will be back again.
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Old Posted Aug 12, 2014, 3:45 AM
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  #9  
Old Posted Sep 12, 2014, 8:30 PM
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Hubley might run for the CPC in Kanata-Carleton which hopefully won't stay blue next year

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/0911-hubley
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  #10  
Old Posted Sep 13, 2014, 11:36 AM
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Hubley might run for the CPC in Kanata-Carleton which hopefully won't stay blue next year

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/0911-hubley
God willing. But I doubt it.

If Hubley runs for the blues the community will most certainly go red.
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  #11  
Old Posted Sep 26, 2014, 6:50 PM
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We how have official confirmation that the province is looking at adopting the new federal borders provincially:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/nation...n-her-campaign
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  #12  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 2:36 PM
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We how have official confirmation that the province is looking at adopting the new federal borders provincially:

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/nation...n-her-campaign
Probably because she benefits greatly from them. If they were in place for this election, there would be at least 20 more Liberal MPP's, and almost no new opposition MPP's (since the Conservatives are rural based and NDP are "rust belt" based)
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Old Posted Sep 28, 2014, 1:54 AM
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Probably because she benefits greatly from them. If they were in place for this election, there would be at least 20 more Liberal MPP's, and almost no new opposition MPP's (since the Conservatives are rural based and NDP are "rust belt" based)
Most liberal strongholds (inner suburbs of Toronto and Ottawa, small cities like Kingston, Kitchener and Guelph) are largely unaffected by the redistricting (so will become more diluted when more MPPs are added). Most of the new ridings are in the 905 (where the Liberals sometimes win but are hardly safe seats) plus one in suburban Ottawa (Nepean) and one in Cambridge (which tends to alternate between the Tories and NDP, although the Liberals picked it it up last time for the first time in decades). I would agree that in the 2014 election the Liberals would have gotten more seats because PC vote in suburban/exurban areas collapsed, but I'm not sure that is a long term trend.
http://www.redecoupage-federal-redis...=e&province=ON
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  #14  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2014, 5:26 PM
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Yes, I'm sure that factors into the decision. I think there's also the fact of:
1) The current ridings are very outdated and the population discrepancies are huge
2) Ontario has adopted the last two federal distributions as well; so there's a strong precedent for doing this

I read an article that said that fitting 15 more MPPs at Queen's Park would be challenging. I don't get why... there were 130 MPPs back in the 1980s and 1990s when Ontario had its own riding borders. If we could fit 130 MPPs into QP in 1995 I don't see why can't fit 121 MPPs in 2018.
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Old Posted Sep 28, 2014, 3:14 AM
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^ Essentially, yes. What the Ontario redistribution does is increase the number of seats that should be swing seats, at the expense of safe areas for all parties. Rural areas (safe areas for the CPC/PCPO), inner suburban areas (safe areas for the LPC/OLP), and blue collar inner city areas (safe areas for the NDP) all lose relative weight in favour of suburban areas which are normally swing areas between the CPC/PCPO and the LPC/OLP. If anything the NDP are the main losers...

Provincially, though, it does seem like the OLP have a pretty solid lock on suburban Ontario especially as the PCPO continues its slide into becoming a rump of angry old white rural men. If this trend doesn't change, the OLP benefits massively from this redistribution.

For the next federal election, the redistribution basically means that any swing between the Liberals & Conservatives is going to have a much stronger effect on seat count than it would have under the old boundaries. I'd argue that with the current political climate federally, the LPC is the main beneficiary. They could theoretically get close to 100 seats in Ontario if they do indeed get 40%-45% of the Ontario vote as recent polls seem to say.
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Old Posted Dec 12, 2014, 1:54 PM
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Les libéraux dans Hull-Aylmer choisissent Greg Fergus comme leur candidat à l'élection fédérale

So in Hull-Aylmer,
- the Liberals now have a candidate,
- the NDP MP and whip currently holding the seat, Nycole Turmel, is going to run again
- the Conservatives haven't even confirmed they'll have a candidate. Just as well, though, since their candidates have never had any hope and never show their faces anywhere. They could just put up some posters with a stock photo.

The turnout at the Liberal nomination was incredible: a year ago, there were hardly 300 members, but there are more than 2 200 now of which almost 1 000 showed up to vote. There was a line that snaked through the whole hotel and almost out the door! A true break from the Old Boys' Club mentality which festered in the riding association for far too long.
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Old Posted Dec 12, 2014, 3:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Aylmer View Post
Les libéraux dans Hull-Aylmer choisissent Greg Fergus comme leur candidat à l'élection fédérale

So in Hull-Aylmer,
- the Liberals now have a candidate,
- the NDP MP and whip currently holding the seat, Nycole Turmel, is going to run again
- the Conservatives haven't even confirmed they'll have a candidate. Just as well, though, since their candidates have never had any hope and never show their faces anywhere. They could just put up some posters with a stock photo.

The turnout at the Liberal nomination was incredible: a year ago, there were hardly 300 members, but there are more than 2 200 now of which almost 1 000 showed up to vote. There was a line that snaked through the whole hotel and almost out the door! A true break from the Old Boys' Club mentality which festered in the riding association for far too long.
That will probably be a close LPC-NDP race. The CPC will likely finish a very distant third (under 10%) and the BQ even worse (perhaps 5th behind the Greens).
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  #18  
Old Posted Dec 12, 2014, 3:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aylmer View Post
Les libéraux dans Hull-Aylmer choisissent Greg Fergus comme leur candidat à l'élection fédérale

So in Hull-Aylmer,
- the Liberals now have a candidate,
- the NDP MP and whip currently holding the seat, Nycole Turmel, is going to run again
- the Conservatives haven't even confirmed they'll have a candidate. Just as well, though, since their candidates have never had any hope and never show their faces anywhere. They could just put up some posters with a stock photo.

The turnout at the Liberal nomination was incredible: a year ago, there were hardly 300 members, but there are more than 2 200 now of which almost 1 000 showed up to vote. There was a line that snaked through the whole hotel and almost out the door! A true break from the Old Boys' Club mentality which festered in the riding association for far too long.
Félicitations!
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  #19  
Old Posted Feb 1, 2015, 10:25 PM
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http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html

They have some current riding-by-riding projections (with the new riding). And some interesting races shaping up. However, I think the site is overestimating the Conservative projection for the number of seats. A lot of the Conservative vote will be wasted in big margin wins out west particularly AB and SK whilist the Liberals will win many tighter races even though a few big margins in Toronto and Montreal.

Specifically here, both Conservatives and Liberals are basically tied in Kanata-Carleton (which would bold well for the Liberals depending on how damaging the Mike Duffy trial will be for the Conservatives). Carleton which will be mostly rural, will likely stay blue (which is why Polievre is instead running there), Glengarry-Prescott-Russell turns red, so as Orleans (and by a large margin too) and Ottawa-West-Nepean, the Nepean riding will be staying blue because of name only but only by a few points which can easily be eaten. The rest are status-quo, though Paul Dewar might not have it as easy this time in Ottawa-Centre.

In Gatineau, NDP would keep Gatineau (easily too), but the Liberals would regain Hull even without its former mayor as candidate, as well as Pontiac. (but the gap is small with the NDP). Elsewhere in Quebec, I don't see the Conservatives winning more than 2 or 3 seats even though the site seems generous with them.

In the GTA as expected, the Conservatives would lose most of their seats to the Liberals and even several ridings in Vancouver. Calgary might turn red in some parts as well
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Last edited by Cre47; Feb 1, 2015 at 11:07 PM.
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  #20  
Old Posted Feb 1, 2015, 11:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Cre47 View Post
http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html

They have some current riding-by-riding projections (with the new riding). And some interesting races shaping up. However, I think the site is overestimating the Conservative projection for the number of seats. A lot of the Conservative vote will be wasted in big margin wins out west particularly AB and SK whilist the Liberals will win many tighter races even though a few big margins in Toronto and Montreal.

Specifically here, both Conservatives and Liberals are basically tied in Kanata-Carleton (which would bold well for the Liberals depending on how damaging the Mike Duffy trial will be for the Conservatives). Carleton which will be mostly rural, will likely stay blue (which is why Polievre is instead running there), Glengarry-Prescott-Russell turns red, so as Orleans (and by a large margin too) and Ottawa-West-Nepean, the Nepean riding will be staying blue because of name only but only by a few points which can easily be eaten. The rest are status-quo, though Paul Dewar might not have it as easy this time in Ottawa-Centre.

In Gatineau, NDP would keep Gatineau (easily too), but the Liberals would regain Hull even without its former mayor as candidate, as well as Pontiac. (but the gap is small with the NDP). Elsewhere in Quebec, I don't see the Conservatives winning more than 2 or 3 seats even though the site seems generous with them.

In the GTA as expected, the Conservatives would lose most of their seats to the Liberals and even several ridings in Vancouver. Calgary might turn red in some parts as well
As someone from GPR, don't expect any change there. That riding never tosses out incumbents, irregardless of wider trends.
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