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Interestingy, solar is now slipping as a generator of electricity as the technical advances in natural gas recovery have continued. However, the solar advocates are confident that they have innovations coming soon that will push down their cost of production. Ethanol and wind also claim they can be the cost leader. A fascinating field to watch in the near future. This should result in lower costs for rail as well.
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Paul Krugman has a good column today about the rapid advances and the falling prices for solar, making this source of energy much more competitive.
Here Comes the Sun
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/07/op...ar-energy.html
I agree with you about the rapid advances in natural gas extraction. Someone from the Energy Information Administration noted that up until the early part of the last decade, oil and natural gas prices were roughly similar but now natural gas is much cheaper. The US has abundant supplies of natural gas, especially in the plains states and Pennsylvania. These are not without serious health and environmental concerns, but the new natural gas extraction techniques, along with the discovery of vast supplies of natural gas has the potential to greatly transform our energy consumption.
It's unfortunate that all you hear about recently is the Washington-manufactured Solyndra scandal/hype but the availability of huge reserves of natural gas here in the US, combined with the dramatic innovations in electric vehicles, has the ability to also dramatically change our transportation system. Every single day, there must be ten articles in the newspapers about new cooperative agreements to develop electrical cars, new facilities to produce these opening, new models being planned, and other significant breakthroughs. This, combined with the natural gas, is nothing less than hugely beneficial, giving us the opportunity to reduce our carbon emissions by half or more and reducing some of the $300B we spend every single year on foreign oil.
If electric vehicles make driving a lot cheaper, as you believe it will, then as the marginal cost of driving falls, you can expect vehicle miles traveled to increase. Congestion pricing can help address some of this additional demand for auto travel, but good passenger rail will also need to be part of the solution.
Here are two must-read editorials about this new energy future for the United States.
Oil’s new world order
By Daniel Yergin
Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...w7L_story.html
Shale Gas Revolution
By David Brooks
New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/04/op...evolution.html