Winnipeg CMA in 5 years (2026)

[KnoxfordGuy]

Where did those CMA numbers come from?

[rrskylar]

Originally Posted by Spocket

It's not an immigrant problem.

I'm not blind: inviting half a million immigrants into the country during a housing crisis is obviously not going to help the situation and, just as obviously, is going to make things worse. That, however, is actually somewhat beside the point: The real issue is that we allow "investors" to buy up every home that comes on the market, don't build enough housing in the first place, and even what we do build is of no use to the average person since it's mostly "luxury" housing.

It's a vanishingly small number of people who truly earn the amount of money necessary to afford a new home. These are essentially the elites. Now, I have nothing against people who can afford to buy one of these new homes but at some point somebody has to ask where the rest of us are supposed to live. The fact that the "investors" are buying up the homes we would buy if they didn't outbid us and then renting them back to us at significant mark up is what the government should be addressing. However, we literally put the landlords in charge of housing in this country so of course they're going to act in their own interests, actual job be damned (along with the Canadian population)

And all three of the main political party leaders in Canada own rental properties including Singh.....don't expect anything to change!

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by KnoxfordGuy

Where did those CMA numbers come from?

I based the CMA population by a calculation formula. I took the July 2022 CMA population estimates, and calculated what % it was of the Q3 2022 population of the province (i.e. I think Winnipeg CMA has 61.9% of Manitoba population).

Then I took the Q4 2023 province population, and multiplied that by the percentage of residents of the CMA in question.

[BlackDog204]

As of today, the estimated population of Winnipeg CMA is 918,000...even more people that the most optimistic people on the forum would have thought.

Due to the fact that Canada's record intake of foreigners won't probably end until sometime in 2025, I can honestly see Winnipeg growing to be 950,000+ when all is said and done.

[borkborkbork]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

As of today, the estimated population of Winnipeg CMA is 918,000...even more people that the most optimistic people on the forum would have thought.

Due to the fact that Canada's record intake of foreigners won't probably end until sometime in 2025, I can honestly see Winnipeg growing to be 950,000+ when all is said and done.

Does anyone know why the Winnipeg CMA is so weirdly shaped, and includes ESP but not WSP, East Selkirk but not Selkirk, and these weird little stretches to the north of the Assiniboine? It doesn't seem to correspond to what anyone would think of the boundaries of the broader Winnipeg metro region including.
Who would go "yeah, East St Paul is Winnipeg, but West St Paul isn't", or "Scanterbury is Winnipeg"?

[Winnipegger]

Originally Posted by borkborkbork

Does anyone know why the Winnipeg CMA is so weirdly shaped, and includes ESP but not WSP, East Selkirk but not Selkirk, and these weird little stretches to the north of the Assiniboine? It doesn't seem to correspond to what anyone would think of the boundaries of the broader Winnipeg metro region including.
Who would go "yeah, East St Paul is Winnipeg, but West St Paul isn't", or "Scanterbury is Winnipeg"?

Statistics Canada has a specific methodology that they use to determine what census subdivisions are included in a wider CMA definition. Generally they use commuter flows to establish what regions are included in a wider metropolitan area. I think the general rule is that if a census subdivision has 50% or more of its commuter traffic heading into the main economic region (Winnipeg) for employment, then that census subdivision gets counted as a part of the CMA. They use the previous census data to establish commuter flows.

So, for example, in the 2016 Census the Town of Niverville had less than 50% of its workforce commuting to Winnipeg so it wasn't a part of the CMA. However, in the 2021 census this changed as the latest census showed Niverville now had more than 50% of its employed workforce going to Winnipeg for work, so starting in 2021 and on the Town of Niverville gets to be considered a part of the Winnipeg CMA.

However, it gets a bit tricky because even though the boundary changes on paper, it takes a while for the data to reflect this. If you look up CMA population estimates, you'll currently see they only reflect 2016 boundaries so Winnipeg's latest CMA population estimate for 2022 doesn't include Niverville. However, eventually Statistics Canada will update all the data to reflect 2021 boundaries and at that point, the CMA population estimates will include Niverville.

[pspeid]

^ This is great information, thanks for posting it.

On a personal note, I know a few folks in West St. Paul who would be horrified to think they were part of the Winnipeg CMA. There was opposition to a walking path joining the city paths because it would bring a flood of "undesirables" from the city. I know of one guy who sold his house and moved out because he felt the (then) new housing development just north of the Perimeter Hwy (west side of Main) was going to lower his property values.

Some interesting folks out in W St. P.

[peg]

There is also the larger Winnipeg Metro Region, which includes the RM of Rockwood and more.

The Winnipeg Metro region Map: Winnipeg Metro Region

Overview of the WMR vs CMA here: WMR - Wikipiedia

[Authentic_City]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

As of today, the estimated population of Winnipeg CMA is 918,000...even more people that the most optimistic people on the forum would have thought.

Due to the fact that Canada's record intake of foreigners won't probably end until sometime in 2025, I can honestly see Winnipeg growing to be 950,000+ when all is said and done.

Can you provide a link to the new estimates?

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Winnipegger

So, for example, in the 2016 Census the Town of Niverville had less than 50% of its workforce commuting to Winnipeg so it wasn't a part of the CMA. However, in the 2021 census this changed as the latest census showed Niverville now had more than 50% of its employed workforce going to Winnipeg for work, so starting in 2021 and on the Town of Niverville gets to be considered a part of the Winnipeg CMA.

However, it gets a bit tricky because even though the boundary changes on paper, it takes a while for the data to reflect this. If you look up CMA population estimates, you'll currently see they only reflect 2016 boundaries so Winnipeg's latest CMA population estimate for 2022 doesn't include Niverville. However, eventually Statistics Canada will update all the data to reflect 2021 boundaries and at that point, the CMA population estimates will include Niverville.

St.Andrews would almost certainly be included in the Winnipeg CMA, but the majority of people from Selkirk do not commte to Winnipeg for work. In St.Clements, there is a lot of residential development in the far south area of the RM (Lockport and south), without many towns north, so it is included, based on 50% of the municipality being Winnipeg commuters.

It was not that long ago when the RM of MacDonald was not in the Winnipeg CMA, but the growth of satellite communities like Oak Bluff and La Salle probably changed taht.

[BAKGUY]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

As of today, the estimated population of Winnipeg CMA is 918,000...even more people that the most optimistic people on the forum would have thought.

Due to the fact that Canada's record intake of foreigners won't probably end until sometime in 2025, I can honestly see Winnipeg growing to be 950,000+ when all is said and done.

It is quite possible for the 2026 Census we might have 960,000 + inhabitants for Greater Winnipeg.
Over a million before the 2031 Census.

[FactaNV]

It's being reported Canada broke 41 million today. That 1 million in Winnipeg CMA by 2040 might be a lot sooner than thought, it might be before the end of the decade at this rate.

[harls]

Originally Posted by FactaNV

It's being reported Canada broke 41 million today. That 1 million in Winnipeg CMA by 2040 might be a lot sooner than thought, it might be before the end of the decade at this rate.

Winnipeg is going to a lot more attractive for those priced out of the Toronto and Vancouver* markets (as well as places like Regina and Saskatoon). Can't keep stacking new immigrants upon immigrants into those places until they finally say 'fuck it' and move elsewhere.

*Montreal too, but not as much because of the French Factor. Actually I think a lower price and a bigger city might actually sway those desperate for affordable housing. Heck, I did it without it (moved to MTL in 2001 and left in 2006).

[FactaNV]

Originally Posted by harls

Winnipeg is going to a lot more attractive for those priced out of the Toronto and Vancouver* markets (as well as places like Regina and Saskatoon). Can't keep stacking new immigrants upon immigrants into those places until they finally say 'fuck it' and move elsewhere.

*Montreal too, but not as much because of the French Factor. Actually I think a lower price and a bigger city might actually sway those desperate for affordable housing. Heck, I did it without it (moved to MTL in 2001 and left in 2006).

I agree. Not even kidding, we'll probably need 100000 new units of housing in the CMA in the next decade. Makes me nervous even thinking about that. To take some of the pressure off the capital I really think intercity transport of some kind needs to be investigated. Maybe transit to Oakbank isnt needed yet, but if Oakbank grows at the rate it continues to grow at, it just may be viable. Copy paste any other metro large town/small city.

[dennis]

Originally Posted by borkborkbork

Does anyone know why the Winnipeg CMA is so weirdly shaped, and includes ESP but not WSP, East Selkirk but not Selkirk, and these weird little stretches to the north of the Assiniboine? It doesn't seem to correspond to what anyone would think of the boundaries of the broader Winnipeg metro region including.
Who would go "yeah, East St Paul is Winnipeg, but West St Paul isn't", or "Scanterbury is Winnipeg"?

West St. Paul actually is part of Winnipeg CMA. St. Andrews is not. Also Rosser is but Rockwood, Stonewall and Stoney Mountain are not. At least as of yet.

[Biff]

Originally Posted by dennis

St. Andrews is not. Also Rosser is but Rockwood, Stonewall and Stoney Mountain are not. At least as of yet.

Those communities combined with Selkirk are all within a 20 km distance of the Perimeter and would account for 20,000+ or so in population.

[wags_in_the_peg]

I know this is Wpg discussion, not AB but look at these recently released numbers for them.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...data-1.7157110

- increase of 202,324 residents compared with a year earlier
- broke a national record in 2023 for interprovincial migration, with a net gain of 55,107 people.
- Statistics Canada estimates that 38,236 Ontarians moved to Alberta last year, versus 14,860 Albertans who moved to Ontario, for a net gain of 23,376 people.

Similarly, an estimated 37,650 British Columbians moved to Alberta, compared to 22,400 Albertans who moved to B.C., for a net gain of 15,250.

[Hockey]

Originally Posted by dennis

West St. Paul actually is part of Winnipeg CMA. St. Andrews is not. Also Rosser is but Rockwood, Stonewall and Stoney Mountain are not. At least as of yet.

IIRC, Stonewall didn't meet the strict CMA Winnipeg definition a few years back, but it narrowly missed.

That said, IMO for all intent and purpose, those residents are part of the GWA. They use the JR Airport, go to Jets games and know where Polo Park is. Maybe they just work locally, though.

[bomberjet]

Stonewall's got an active business community. So I can see why Rockwood is not included yet. Even in Stony Mountain where my mom lives, people work there, drive to Stonewall, or like her drive to Winnipeg.

[blueandgoldguy]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

Stonewall's got an active business community. So I can see why Rockwood is not included yet. Even in Stony Mountain where my mom lives, people work there, drive to Stonewall, or like her drive to Winnipeg.

Stony Mountain nearly doubled in size in the late 90s/early 2000s. I'm surprised they never built a bigger grocery store in that time. They still have some sadsack small independent grocer and that's it.

I was briefly in town last summer and there land being converted for new residential on the east side of town as they were constructing roads. I think they were expecting another 80 + residential homes there. There was also supposed to be another conversion of land for residential in another area of town. Not sure how how many residences they would be expecting there, but you would think they would eventually see better amenities in town at some point in the near future.