The Climate Change Discussion Thread

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Actually, it is. Even an electric truck recharged from coal-fired power plants emits fewer GHGs than one burning fossil fuels. And of course in Canada there are almost no coal powered electricity plants.

This may be true but it is a non sequitur as a response to my argument. The point is that the taxes paid are not only voluntary. You will have to pay more for your Tesla in the place with coal power than in the place with hydro and there isn't much you can do about it.

Canada could have fixed these issues years ago but never did. There's more than enough to supply all of the Maritimes with hydro for example, but Quebec politics came first. Not sure if this is also true of BC hydro and the Prairies. If NS had cheap hydro there would be no point in using heating oil there either.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This is fundamentally the problem with BC's implementation. Nobody ever remembers the tax cut. But they are reminded of the tax everyday. The equal rebate gives everybody the same shot at saving money. It's up to you how much you spend/save on emitting activities.

My lifestyle is very low carbon and I'd be gleefully cashing checks from the Feds. If only...

[YOWetal]

The budget today killed EV credits. A bit (a lot) more organized than Ford did in Ontario but the $7k credit drops to $4k next year $2k in 26 and gone by 2027. With the likely elimination of the Federal credit the math will be changing a lot.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The budget today killed EV credits. A bit (a lot) more organized than Ford did in Ontario but the $7k credit drops to $4k next year $2k in 26 and gone by 2027. With the likely elimination of the Federal credit the math will be changing a lot.

I'm supportive of this and have argued for phasing out EV credits before. As long as there's a carbon tax, additional subsidies for EVs are unnecessary. And over the next 2-3 years, we're seeing much more affordable EV options come to market.

And in Quebec's case, the federal and provincial incentives added up to an insane $13k total. Even with this cut, it goes down to $9k, almost as generous than the US federal rebate (US$7.5k).

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I'm supportive of this and have argued for phasing out EV credits before. As long as there's a carbon tax, additional subsidies for EVs are unnecessary. And over the next 2-3 years, we're seeing much more affordable EV options come to market.

And in Quebec's case, the federal and provincial incentives added up to an insane $13k total. Even with this cut, it goes down to $9k, still more generous than the US federal rebate (US$7.5k).

Well the 2027 total credit is likely 0 (granted US may be at 0 by then too) and the carbon tax is certain to be gone though not in Quebec.
The mandate will also be gone. As you've said before we are unlikely to get much inventory now.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Well the 2027 total credit is likely 0 (granted US may be at 0 by then too) and the carbon tax is certain to be gone though not in Quebec.
The mandate will also be gone. As you've said before we are unlikely to get much inventory now.

I am curious to see if the CPC will maintain the mandate. It's easy climate policy that is transparent and cost free to the consumer. If not, the alliance of American states hosting the mandate will be driving North American auto choices. We just have to hope we're a year behind on supply vs California and New York and not 5 years. Quebec and BC mandates will still be there. And they've been quite effective in the past. Very possible Ontario could do the same. Now that EVs are built in Ontario, the government seems to be more pro-EV as long as they aren't subsidizing customers.

American subsidies are very likely to survive. It's Congress that would have to repeal the IRA. A Trump Administration has no power over that. And now that so much EV manufacturing is in red stares, and this is seen as part of the competition with China, the politics there will be very different.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I am curious to see if the CPC will maintain the mandate. It's easy climate policy that is transparent and cost free to the consumer. If not, the alliance of American states hosting the mandate will be driving North American auto choices. We just have to hope we're a year behind on supply vs California and New York and not 5 years. Quebec and BC mandates will still be there. And they've been quite effective in the past. Very possible Ontario could do the same. Now that EVs are built in Ontario, the government seems to be more pro-EV as long as they aren't subsidizing customers.

American subsidies are very likely to survive. It's Congress that would have to repeal the IRA. A Trump Administration has no power over that. And now that so much EV manufacturing is in red stares, and this is seen as part of the competition with China, the politics there will be very different.

If the Conservatives are smart they’ll quash any “only EVs” mandates and say “let the market decide”. It’s totally ideologically on brand and makes the Liberals look elitist and dictatorial.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

If the Conservatives are smart they’ll quash any “only EVs” mandates and say “let the market decide”. It’s totally ideologically on brand and makes the Liberals look elitist and dictatorial.

Likely outcome. All I am saying is that if they do want any climate policy at all, this is an easy one. And it should be noted, it was never a pure BEV mandate:

...Under the new Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, auto manufacturers and importers must meet annual zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) regulated sales targets. The targets begin for the 2026 model year, with a requirement that at least 20 percent of new light-duty vehicles offered for sale in that year be ZEVs. The requirements increase annually to 60 percent by 2030 and 100 percent for 2035.

...The regulations define ZEVs as battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) fueled only with electricity; fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs) that operate using hydrogen; and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) that can run exclusively on electricity for a specified minimum distance before they transition to operating as hybrid vehicles, using both liquid fuels and electricity.

https://www.canada.ca/en/environment...-vehicles.html

[P'tit Renard]

With the Cybertruck distraction, it looks like's Tesla's low cost model isn't rolling out until later 2026-2027...


Tesla is increasingly a ‘2027 story,’ Evercore analysts warn after touring Texas factory
https://fortune.com/2024/03/11/tesla...-2-deliveries/

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

With the Cybertruck distraction, it looks like's Tesla's low cost model isn't rolling out until later 2026-2027...


Tesla is increasingly a ‘2027 story,’ Evercore analysts warn after touring Texas factory
https://fortune.com/2024/03/11/tesla...-2-deliveries/

2027 will be an amazing year with the Rivian R3 (if Rivian makes it), Tesla Model 2 and cheaper legacy automaker EVs coming, especially as all those battery factories being built, finally get into full production. This is what will help bring about peak oil demand.

[q12]

World Meteorological Organization

Significant Weather & Climate Events 2023

Canada’s wildfire season was well beyond any previously recorded. Significant fire activity warm and dry May, and continued throughout the summer and into early autumn. The total area burned nationally was 14.9 million hectares, more than seven times the long-term average (1986-2022) and far above the previous record seasonal total of 6.7 million hectares in 1989.

Many parts of the country were affected, with 4.3 million hectares burned in Quebec and at least 2 million in each of the Northwest Territories, British Columbia and Alberta, while Nova Scotia had the largest fires in its history in late May and early June. The city of Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, was evacuated for several weeks in August and September, and many remote communities were evacuated for significant periods. Many of the fires were in remote areas, but in Nova Scotia more than 200 structures were lost in the Halifax area on 1 June, and nearly the same number were destroyed around Kelowna, British Columbia, in August. The fires also resulted in significant and widespread smoke pollution, particularly in the heavily populated areas of eastern Canada and the north-eastern United States of America in the first half of June. Four deaths were directly attributed to the fires, although the broader health impacts of the smoke are yet to be fully assessed.

Drought extended over many areas of Canada (including most of the significantly fire-affected areas), covering most areas within 500 km of the southern border from Lake Superior westwards, and also extending north into parts of the Northwest Territories and east into western Quebec, as well as southwards into northern parts of the midwestern United States. Despite the general drought, there was an extreme rainfall event in Nova Scotia on 21-22 July, including 100 mm in 1 hour and 173 mm in six hours at Bedford, a national record. There was major flash flooding in the area with four deaths reported.

https://wmo.int/files/significant-we...te-events-2023

[Changing City]

BC is already starting the year with problems.

"McLaughlin said crews are already busy monitoring approximately 90 holdover wildfires in the northeast that have smoldered through the winter, adding that once the snow melts and the land dries out, drier air and moderate winds will be enough for them to start burning again.

Eight new human-caused fires have also been sparked since Jan. 1, he said, amid incredibly warm, dry and windy conditions.

B.C.'s average snowpack levels were 66 per cent below average for this time of year on March 1, according to hydrologist Jonathan Boyd with B.C.'s River Forecast Centre, the second lowest for that date in the last 50 years." [CBC]

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by Changing City

BC is already starting the year with problems.

"McLaughlin said crews are already busy monitoring approximately 90 holdover wildfires in the northeast that have smoldered through the winter, adding that once the snow melts and the land dries out, drier air and moderate winds will be enough for them to start burning again.

Eight new human-caused fires have also been sparked since Jan. 1, he said, amid incredibly warm, dry and windy conditions.

B.C.'s average snowpack levels were 66 per cent below average for this time of year on March 1, according to hydrologist Jonathan Boyd with B.C.'s River Forecast Centre, the second lowest for that date in the last 50 years." [CBC]

We have 60 Zombie fires and I believe NWT has some as well. The Ft Mac Fire burned for 2-3 years at least.

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by Changing City

BC is already starting the year with problems.

"McLaughlin said crews are already busy monitoring approximately 90 holdover wildfires in the northeast that have smoldered through the winter, adding that once the snow melts and the land dries out, drier air and moderate winds will be enough for them to start burning again.

Eight new human-caused fires have also been sparked since Jan. 1, he said, amid incredibly warm, dry and windy conditions.

B.C.'s average snowpack levels were 66 per cent below average for this time of year on March 1, according to hydrologist Jonathan Boyd with B.C.'s River Forecast Centre, the second lowest for that date in the last 50 years." [CBC]

We have 60 Zombie fires and I believe NWT has some as well. The Ft Mac Fire burned for 15 months at least.

[whatnext]

Meanwhile Canada is forecast to lead the world in oil production growth this year.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Meanwhile Canada is forecast to lead the world in oil production growth this year.

I thought Trudeau was killing the oil sector.

[Airboy]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I thought Trudeau was killing the oil sector.

Yup and His pipeline has just started filling with oil. Should be fully up and running July 1.

[Black Star]

Justin Trudeau isn't the only Canadian obsessed with Climate Change and by extension, the Carbon Tax and that, in and of itself, is disturbing, perplexing and a definite sign of the times where common sense in Canada has gone the way of the Dodo Bird replaced by cultish behaviorisms and rampant indoctrination.
In other words, Justin Trudeau is just the tip of the iceberg, the real problems in Canada lie beneath, much bigger, more ominous and ultimately ruinous. Just look at the polls, combine Liberal, NDP and Green Party support and what have you got, 50% of Canadians living in LaLa Land.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Black Star

Justin Trudeau isn't the only Canadian obsessed with Climate Change and by extension, the Carbon Tax and that, in and of itself, is disturbing, perplexing and a definite sign of the times where common sense in Canada has gone the way of the Dodo Bird replaced by cultish behaviorisms and rampant indoctrination.
In other words, Justin Trudeau is just the tip of the iceberg, the real problems in Canada lie beneath, much bigger, more ominous and ultimately ruinous. Just look at the polls, combine Liberal, NDP and Green Party support and what have you got, 50% of Canadians living in LaLa Land.

[feepa]

Originally Posted by Black Star

Justin Trudeau isn't the only Canadian obsessed with Climate Change and by extension, the Carbon Tax and that, in and of itself, is disturbing, perplexing and a definite sign of the times where common sense in Canada has gone the way of the Dodo Bird replaced by cultish behaviorisms and rampant indoctrination.
In other words, Justin Trudeau is just the tip of the iceberg, the real problems in Canada lie beneath, much bigger, more ominous and ultimately ruinous. Just look at the polls, combine Liberal, NDP and Green Party support and what have you got, 50% of Canadians living in LaLa Land.

That 50% being you and the CPC and their supporters. GTFO.