Federal Elections

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Projecting the latest EKOS poll (which puts Ontario support at 36% NDP, 26% LPC, 26% CPC) onto individual ridings using the model at www.tooclosetocall.ca results in Ottawa-Vanier being an NDP gain, and Orleans and Ottawa West-Nepean being Liberal gains, with both Nepean and Kanata-Carleton being CPC holds.

Ottawa has plenty of competitive ridings this time... of the 8 ridings in the city, 6 of them (all but Carleton & Ottawa-Centre) are reasonably in play between at least two parties.

Ottawa West-Nepean is probably the biggest battleground as its tight. With the NDP surge, if it lasts, OWN will be a three way race. Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa South could be in play between the Liberals and the NDP if the NDP momentum continues to build. Nepean & Kanata-Carleton are both potential Liberal gains (Kanata-Carleton more so). Orleans is probably foregone as a Liberal gain but it will still be fought over. Ottawa Centre on the other hand is probably a certain NDP hold, same with Carleton and the CPC.

An argument could be made it looks like an anti-gerrymander for the Conservatives in Ottawa...since their strongest support is "packed" into the Carleton riding...taking the strongest parts of 3 ridings for them.

I'd be curious to see how it translates provincially in 2018. Most likely, Jack MacLaren will be forced to run in the Carleton riding, even if it is not home turf. He would likely lose in the new Kanata-Carleton riding with the 2018 demographics (Kanata was virtually a draw in both 2011 and 2014 but he was helped by enormous wins in the rural parts - most of which are gone and Kanata will have likely grown even more by then), while he would bump out Randy Hillier in the Lanark-Frontenac riding (where he is entrenched). That would force Lisa MacLeod (if she doesn't go federal) into Nepean, which may not be so bad for her since that is where she is most familiar with, even if it is not as safe of a riding.

Kanata-Carleton becomes the open seat as a result.

[Cre47]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Projecting the latest EKOS poll (which puts Ontario support at 36% NDP, 26% LPC, 26% CPC) onto individual ridings using the model at www.tooclosetocall.ca results in Ottawa-Vanier being an NDP gain, and Orleans and Ottawa West-Nepean being Liberal gains, with both Nepean and Kanata-Carleton being CPC holds.

Ottawa has plenty of competitive ridings this time... of the 8 ridings in the city, 6 of them (all but Carleton & Ottawa-Centre) are reasonably in play between at least two parties.

Ottawa West-Nepean is probably the biggest battleground as its tight. With the NDP surge, if it lasts, OWN will be a three way race. Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa South could be in play between the Liberals and the NDP if the NDP momentum continues to build. Nepean & Kanata-Carleton are both potential Liberal gains (Kanata-Carleton more so). Orleans is probably foregone as a Liberal gain but it will still be fought over. Ottawa Centre on the other hand is probably a certain NDP hold, same with Carleton and the CPC.

And you know guys, that Alex Cullen is attempting the NDP nomination in Ottawa West-Nepean. Again I'm surprised Rick Chiarelli didn't made an attempt at the Liberal nomination. This would have increased their chances by having a more known figure there. Now, what could have been an easy pickup for the Liberals might end up as a loss but at the hands of the NDP rather than the Conservatives. I was also hoping for a more known candidate in Nepean whom might face Bob Plamondon.

[Cre47]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Projecting the latest EKOS poll (which puts Ontario support at 36% NDP, 26% LPC, 26% CPC) onto individual ridings using the model at www.tooclosetocall.ca results in Ottawa-Vanier being an NDP gain, and Orleans and Ottawa West-Nepean being Liberal gains, with both Nepean and Kanata-Carleton being CPC holds.

Ottawa has plenty of competitive ridings this time... of the 8 ridings in the city, 6 of them (all but Carleton & Ottawa-Centre) are reasonably in play between at least two parties.

Ottawa West-Nepean is probably the biggest battleground as its tight. With the NDP surge, if it lasts, OWN will be a three way race. Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa South could be in play between the Liberals and the NDP if the NDP momentum continues to build. Nepean & Kanata-Carleton are both potential Liberal gains (Kanata-Carleton more so). Orleans is probably foregone as a Liberal gain but it will still be fought over. Ottawa Centre on the other hand is probably a certain NDP hold, same with Carleton and the CPC.

Don't forget Glengarry-Prescott-Russell which still has the rural east/southeast. And that riding will also be tight. So 7 tight ridings in Ottawa (make it 8 if including the Pontiac riding but I think NDP will have the edge over the Liberals and Conservatives) The higher francophone proportion could help the Liberals (even though Lemieux is Francophone himself), but their candidate is relatively unknown much like other ridings in where they can win (Nepean and Ottawa-West-Nepean).

Gatineau and Hull-Aylmer are shoe-ins for the NDP. It might be easier wins there than in Ottawa Centre especially in the Gatineau riding. Hull-Aylmer could have been a tremendous race if former mayor Yves Ducharme had won the Liberal nomination instead of a no-name. Petite-Nation (the 4th riding with parts of Gatineau) should also be an easy win unless the Bloc continues to progress further following the return of Duceppe as leader.

I'm wondering if Cullen gets the nomination in Ottawa-West Nepean it will give them a better shot at that riding. Although he has been in politics long enough.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Cre47

Don't forget Glengarry-Prescott-Russell which still has the rural east/southeast. And that riding will also be tight. So 7 tight ridings in Ottawa (make it 8 if including the Pontiac riding but I think NDP will have the edge over the Liberals and Conservatives) The higher francophone proportion could help the Liberals (even though Lemieux is Francophone himself), but their candidate is relatively unknown much like other ridings in where they can win (Nepean and Ottawa-West-Nepean).

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell loves incumbents. If you go through its history going back decades, you'll only find scarce examples of it ever changing hands when it isn't an open seat.

As such, the Lemieux will have a huge edge there.

In the last provincial election, everyone thought it would be a very tight race, as in 2011, when it was an open seat, Liberal Grant Crack won a very narrow victory. As a rural riding, held by a Liberal MPP who only barely squeaked through in 2011, everyone was convinced it was going to be a PC gain... and then Crack won again by a much increased margin.

[Cre47]

The latest Ekos poll would translate almost in a three-way race in Kanata (would estimate a 34-32-26 or something like that).

I would say consider the progressive vote is fed up with Harper, I think whoever has the most momentum between the two, will probably chop a decent amount of voters from the other which could translate into an increase of tens of seats.

The recent Conservative-friendly pollster Angus-Reid (because they have a tendency of over polling Conservatives by a few points compared to others) even has the NDP ahead at 36 with 33 CPC (though minus the 3-5 CPC bias we can put it around 30) and the LPC at 23.

[1overcosc]

The Conservative candidate in Kanata-Carleton is a guy from the landowner rights crowd. This is not a good move on the part of the local riding association. That type of candidate appeals well to rural folk out that way but not to the suburban residents in Kanata. In the past when the riding was mostly rural that would have worked, but now, with redistribution the riding is much more Kanata-dominant.

In the 2011 provincial election, when Jack Maclaren--also a landowner rights guy--was picked, it led to the Liberal candidate making considerable gains in Kanata proper, despite the overall trend in that election, both provincewide and regionally, being a Liberal decline.

This move will increase the chance of a Liberal gain there, although with the NDP surging, the CPC should be able to hold it unless some major strategic voting happens. Most voters in Kanata think the riding is a lot safer than it is, so that could play into people's voting habits. The Liberal candidate, if she wants to be successful, will have to put a lot of effort into GOTV to counter the defeatist (and thus non-voting) attitude that tends to emerge when a seat is seen as safe.

[acottawa]

Hard to see much changing locally. Libs polling at dion levels (when they had the same number of seats as they do now). ndp is so far behind in the burbs even if they pick up another 10% over Layton levels they would not get more seats.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Hard to see much changing locally. Libs polling at dion levels (when they had the same number of seats as they do now). ndp is so far behind in the burbs even if they pick up another 10% over Layton levels they would not get more seats.

I don't think the CPC will lose the riding (well, not now that the NDP have emerged as the main opposition), but it will hurt them there.

Interestingly enough, if you play with the models at www.tooclosetocall.ca it emerges that Nepean can be an NDP gain if they get around 40% in the polls. (Not Kanata-Carleton though).

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The Conservative candidate in Kanata-Carleton is a guy from the landowner rights crowd. This is not a good move on the part of the local riding association. That type of candidate appeals well to rural folk out that way but not to the suburban residents in Kanata. In the past when the riding was mostly rural that would have worked, but now, with redistribution the riding is much more Kanata-dominant.

In the 2011 provincial election, when Jack Maclaren--also a landowner rights guy--was picked, it led to the Liberal candidate making considerable gains in Kanata proper, despite the overall trend in that election, both provincewide and regionally, being a Liberal decline.

This move will increase the chance of a Liberal gain there, although with the NDP surging, the CPC should be able to hold it unless some major strategic voting happens. Most voters in Kanata think the riding is a lot safer than it is, so that could play into people's voting habits. The Liberal candidate, if she wants to be successful, will have to put a lot of effort into GOTV to counter the defeatist (and thus non-voting) attitude that tends to emerge when a seat is seen as safe.

It also has a side effect in 2018 of shoving one of the area's PCPO incumbents into a tight race. Since Randy Hillier will likely take Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston (his home turf and ultra-safe), it likely forces Jack Maclaren into Carleton since he'd likely lose in Kanata-Carleton. In addition, Lisa Macleod would be forced into the Nepean riding, which isn't her home turf but at least being a bit more moderate she should hold it.

If Norm Sterling wanted to come back, he'd have a seat tailor made for him...

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

If Norm Sterling wanted to come back, he'd have a seat tailor made for him...

IIRC, Norm Sterling was first elected as an MPP in 1977. He's probably too old to want to come back at this point.

[HighwayStar]

Interesting read from the NY Times on the Harper Legacy...

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/16/op...mind.html?_r=0

[canabiz]

The people campaigning for the Conservative candidate (Andy Wang) in my area (Stonebridge - Barrhaven) have stopped by our place a couple of times with pamphlets. It is possible Andy might have been here as well because I got a yellow sticky with his name and signature.

I have yet to see any sign of the Liberal or NDP candidate here.

[MountainView]

Originally Posted by canabiz

The people campaigning for the Conservative candidate (Andy Wang) in my area (Stonebridge - Barrhaven) have stopped by our place a couple of times with pamphlets. It is possible Andy might have been here as well because I got a yellow sticky with his name and signature.

I have yet to see any sign of the Liberal or NDP candidate here.

I believe the Liberal nom hasn't been confirmed yet. There are 3-4 people looking for it. I also believe Ric Dagenais is the NDP in your area. I've met him a bunch of times - really nice guy.

[ars]

Originally Posted by MountainView

I believe the Liberal nom hasn't been confirmed yet. There are 3-4 people looking for it. I also believe Ric Dagenais is the NDP in your area. I've met him a bunch of times - really nice guy.

Liberal guy was confirmed a while ago, Chandra Arya. His campaign came by once and I got a phone call from them too. No sign of the Conservatives(thankfully) or the NDP yet. The only thing we know about the NDP candidate is that it won't be Ric Dagenais this time around.

[1overcosc]

The NDP candidate in Nepean was nominated yesterday, can't remember who it is.

With the NDP surge a Conservative hold of both Nepean and Kanata-Carleton is looking a lot more likely now. The main Liberal vs. Conservative action will be in Ottawa West-Nepean and Orleans. The NDP have a chance in Ottawa-Vanier if they continue to lead the polls.

Regionally, there's only three races in the 613 worth watching outside Ottawa:
1) Glengarry-Prescott-Russell: Possible Liberal gain from the Conservatives
2) Kingston and the Islands: Possible NDP gain from the Liberals
3) Bay of Quinte: Possible Liberal gain from the Conservatives
.. and even then, those possibilities are not very high.

The 613 is never a particularly difficult battleground. Notably all local results here did not change here between 2006 and 2011, despite the large number of seats that changed hands in that time period.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The NDP candidate in Nepean was nominated yesterday, can't remember who it is.

With the NDP surge a Conservative hold of both Nepean and Kanata-Carleton is looking a lot more likely now. The main Liberal vs. Conservative action will be in Ottawa West-Nepean and Orleans. The NDP have a chance in Ottawa-Vanier if they continue to lead the polls.

Regionally, there's only three races in the 613 worth watching outside Ottawa:
1) Glengarry-Prescott-Russell: Possible Liberal gain from the Conservatives
2) Kingston and the Islands: Possible NDP gain from the Liberals
3) Bay of Quinte: Possible Liberal gain from the Conservatives
.. and even then, those possibilities are not very high.

The 613 is never a particularly difficult battleground. Notably all local results here did not change here between 2006 and 2011, despite the large number of seats that changed hands in that time period.

Also the CPC vote gain in that time frame (in raw numbers) was not exactly significant, despite about a 15 percentage point gain province-wide. That suggests the vote is mostly inelastic and the parties all have solid bases of support for their totals, not a lot of swing voters.

Interestingly, I find Nepean the safer CPC seat than Kanata-Carleton despite them being equal on paper, due to candidate selection. It seems the Conservatives nominated a good candidate for Nepean, but a bad candidate in Kanata-Carleton (would have been good in the old Carleton-Mississippi Mills riding).

In the rural 613, agreed on those - I'm not too sure on Bay of Quinte being a swing riding, since under those boundaries I believe it would have gone PC in the 2014 provincial election (the Liberal vote was more concentrated in the western part of the riding, particularly Cobourg and Port Hope).

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The NDP have a chance in Ottawa-Vanier if they continue to lead the polls.
.

I am a bit skeptical about the NDP beating the Liberals in Ottawa-Vanier. I know the demographics have changed but it's still a solid old Liberal bastion much like those in some parts of western Montreal.

Plus the NDP haven't even chosen their candidate yet.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I am a bit skeptical about the NDP beating the Liberals in Ottawa-Vanier. I know the demographics have changed but it's still a solid old Liberal bastion much like those in some parts of western Montreal.

Plus the NDP haven't even chosen their candidate yet.

The Liberals will almost certainly win the seat at current polling levels. However, if the NDP start to climb higher in Ontario above the 3-way tie that the province currently has, Ottawa-Vanier will be the first seat in Ottawa to flip.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The NDP candidate in Nepean was nominated yesterday, can't remember who it is.

With the NDP surge a Conservative hold of both Nepean and Kanata-Carleton is looking a lot more likely now. The main Liberal vs. Conservative action will be in Ottawa West-Nepean and Orleans. The NDP have a chance in Ottawa-Vanier if they continue to lead the polls.

Regionally, there's only three races in the 613 worth watching outside Ottawa:
1) Glengarry-Prescott-Russell: Possible Liberal gain from the Conservatives
2) Kingston and the Islands: Possible NDP gain from the Liberals
3) Bay of Quinte: Possible Liberal gain from the Conservatives
.. and even then, those possibilities are not very high.

The 613 is never a particularly difficult battleground. Notably all local results here did not change here between 2006 and 2011, despite the large number of seats that changed hands in that time period.

I don't know, none of those were really close. Bay of Quite (redistributed) was 51% tory, 23% NDP in 2011. Kingston (redistributed) was L40, C34, N21. G-P-R (redistributed) was C48 L30.

To me, if election results are anywhere near the polls, the only change in eastern Ontario that might be likely is Orleans (and that probably depends on the opinion the CF/DND residents of orleans have of Leslie). Other ridings had a 20ish point difference. Swing ridings are in BC, SW Ontario, urban prairies, and GTA.

[teej1984]

I think Orléans will be an interesting riding to watch with Andrew Leslie as the Liberal candidate, and Royal Galipeau getting old and frail.