Canada's 'housing bubble' deemed close to bursting

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by casper

There are alternatives without leaving the country. When I graduated university I decided to leave Vancouver. Places like Saskatoon and Victoria are vibrant have quick commutes and a lower cost of living.

Sure. But again, if you have that talent why freeze your nuts off in Saskatoon, when you can get more elsewhere?

People forget that housing is just one component of quality of life. And nobody racks up a shitload of student debt to get a poor return on investment.

Increasingly, Canada is for those who chose less employable majors and the D is for degree group. If you have real talent, you leave when you graduate. Or you might build your resume, compare pay cheques and houses with your American counterparts and then leave after you get 5-10 years on your resume. COVID zoom calls have been educational for a lot of folks this way.

It's hilarious to see Canadian tech CEOs getting desperate enough pre COVID that they were insisting that the government stop graduates from leaving. Remember this:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/nat...ads-leaving-canada-ceos/article30597475/

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Sure. But again, if you have that talent why freeze your nuts off in Saskatoon, when you can get more elsewhere?

My cousin, a Montreal engineer, got shipped to Saskatoon a few years ago by his company (which has an office over there). That city was pricier than Montreal, as well as colder, less vibrant, and more isolated. No thanks.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lio45

My cousin, a Montreal engineer, got shipped to Saskatoon a few years ago by his company (which has an office over there). That city was pricier than Montreal, as well as colder, less vibrant, and more isolated. No thanks.

I get that people have all kinds of sympathies for the places they are from or have lived in. But that's not a good basis on which to make national economic and housing policy. And young people these days are even more loaded up with debt, facing sky high housing ratios. They are going to be picky. Condescending bullshit about how they should suck it up will not change a thing. It's just going to destroy our tax base and eventually leave a lot of people with worse services.

And sorry but if I'm a young single dude, trading Montreal for Saskatoon sounds like a shitty deal. Get to be cold, broke and have a smaller dating pool.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

And sorry but if I'm a young single dude, trading Montreal for Saskatoon sounds like a shitty deal. Get to be cold, broke and have a smaller dating pool.

He wasn't asked, he was sent there because they needed people there. It's like if you got posted to Cold Lake or Bagotville. I am 100% sure you'd miss the NCR. (That's if you don't quit rather than go!)

He was glad to be repatriated to Montreal, when that moment came.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by lio45

He wasn't asked, he was sent there because they needed people there. It's like if you got posted to Cold Lake or Bagotville. I am 100% sure you'd miss the NCR. (If you don't quit rather than go!)

He was glad to be repatriated to Montreal, when that moment came.

How long was he exiled and was he single at the time? Did they pay him more? Could he have left?

Interesting you bring up the military. The CAF has a huge problem with retention at places like Cold Lake. To the point that the highest skilled unit there (the test establishment filled with test pilots and engineers) had to relocate to Ottawa because their recruiting and retention was threatening to fail the unit.

[JHikka]

Surely getting sent to Saskatoon is our equivalent of being sent to Siberia.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Surely getting sent to Saskatoon is our equivalent of being sent to Siberia.

Worse. None of the street cred of saying you went to Siberia.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by JHikka

Surely getting sent to Saskatoon is our equivalent of being sent to Siberia.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Worse. None of the street cred of saying you went to Siberia.

My close Russian friend is an elder Millennial born/raised in a medium sized city of Siberia, now living in Moscow.

Besides lack of trams, Saskatoon looks and seems to be a lot better city (I've only spent a night but it actually seems kinda cool--more interesting than Regina)

In elementary school (say grade 4-5 equiv) Siberian kids were taught how to handle a gun and how to fire grenade launchers with dummy grenades.
The kids with the furthest shots won a prize (and were probably put on a recruitment list for the Army)

Moscow and St. Petersburg got everything and places like the Urals and Siberia had to "fight" for scraps. Still continues to this day with the top-down planning a relic of the Soviet system.

What a different country!

[lio45]

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

How long was he exiled and was he single at the time? Did they pay him more? Could he have left?

Interesting you bring up the military. The CAF has a huge problem with retention at places like Cold Lake. To the point that the highest skilled unit there (the test establishment filled with test pilots and engineers) had to relocate to Ottawa because their recruiting and retention was threatening to fail the unit.

Yeah, he was single at the time. I think he was paid maybe a bit more. He wasn't completely opposed to the idea, it was a bit of an adventure too, since it wasn't meant to be forever. He was in his 20s and single at the time. I think he was over there for something like a year. But he was glad to come back.

Not surprised at all by what you're saying about the obvious enormous challenge posed by retention of highly qualified people in remote locations. Why can't those air bases be in suburban southern Canada instead? It's not like there's no room at all for stuff like that in the Corridor.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by lio45

Best of both worlds jajajaja

[Acajack]

I'd rather live in Saskatoon than Regina.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I'd rather live in Saskatoon than Regina.

True....

[swimmer_spe]

Originally Posted by lio45

AND who are dishonest enough to refuse to admit it would make sense from society's point of view

(see my edit above, which you likely missed)

I did.

Originally Posted by lio45

FYI, that's called LVT, and there are good arguments in favor of it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax

(It would be really bad for me personally, I'm sitting on a lot of under-utilized real estate, but I don't deny it would be better for the greater good. It would likely push me to develop.)

So, you are part of the problem. Why do you need higher taxes to force you to do something?

Originally Posted by casper

It is a bad idea because it changes the dynamics of what property is for most Canadians.

For most Canadian you buy property because you need a house to live in. Once you buy it, its value is irrelevant until you sell. From a community stability perspective you want people to stay in the same home as long as possible.

Such a tax would change homes from homes to investments. The shift in mentality would be significant and have many unintended consequences.

For seniors (empty nesters) you want them to stay in their home as long as possible only moving into assisted living or care home when absolutely needed. This would force them out sooner putting more pressure on those facilities.

No. Seniors should downsize to allow families the same opportunities their parents gave them. Every time I hear a senior complain about being on a fixed income and the rising costs of things. They could sell their home and move into something smaller.

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

I'm reminded of UBC prof and housing expert David Hulchanski's (para)quote in which he said that real estate can't be both affordable and a good investment.

In order for it to be a good investment, prices have to continually rise which tends to happen through increased demand and limited supply. Governments can make it seem like they're helping to make it more affordable by offering financing tools like tax breaks and first time buyers assistance programs but these mostly just help and encourage people to tackle ever increasing prices and take on more debt rather than actually lowering the prices or meaningfully increasing people's income.

The two main issues he often mentions are increased inequality which causes the bulk of the money developers are chasing to be at the top end rather than in the middle like it used to be, and constraints on supply due to things like zoning and the federal gov's exit from social housing. In terms of the latter, when they handed down housing to the provincial level in the late 90s, there was an inevitable drop in total spending after the initial transfers dried up.

The first thing housing must be is a home. An investment should not be what you rely on for day to day living.

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

This couldn't be farther from the truth. Municipalities set land use laws and if anyone is benefiting from land use restrictions it's landlords not developers.

We can't have a post war housing boom today because it would be called "sprawl".

I am for sprawl in smaller places away from the QC-W corridor. However, even there, there is lots of land within the existing sprawl that is vacant and should be built on first.

Originally Posted by goodgrowth

This will be an unpopular opinion but I'm convinced some of the issue with things today is the education system.

If you are churning out a glut of BA's/MA's and people who spent 20+ years of "solving" everything through words and language...then that's mostly what you'll get. And a lot of those types end up in politics..

So you end up with "we need another report to analyze". Solutions which basically amount to just calling things what you want the solution to be "Rapid housing initiative", "Affordable" housing.

It's the problem of words as solutions.

The "rapid housing initiative" couldn't be farther from rapid. Things that municipalities label "affordable" housing are not scalable in any sense.

You are speaking of a bigger problem. The best way to point this out is that the Transcontinental Railway that was built over 100 years ago would never get built today.They would do several studies and then, even if there was a plan, the construction company would submit something woefully different as part of their bid.

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

It sounds radical, but I'm honestly wondering if what we need in this country is to abolish municipalities entirely, and just place all municipal services in the hands of provincial ministries.

There's so many files - from this planning disaster to building transit to disposing of waste - that would be better run from the province with a holistic view of things. As opposed to city councils that consistently end up being run according to the interests of NIMBYs and Karens.

The problem is, the province still focuses on those cities and tend to ignore the far flung areas. At least with municipalities, things might get done. Mind you, even then, looking at NS and their municipalities, even that is no guarantee.

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

People don't want to hear this, but honestly I think you have a good point.

IMO, this country is teetering on the edge of broken and we need very fundamental reforms to fix it. (see my post above about abolishing municipalities, as example of a radical reform I think would do good).

I'll probably get attacked on here for this, but honestly, this is one area where a Pollievre government might do some good - his "fire the gatekeepers" mantra is oversimplistic but there's a lot of merit behind it.

The same "drain the swamp" that was only made swampier?
The country is broken, but removing a level of political oversight would not be better.

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Add that to another fundamental problem with this country: While our labour shortages are most severe and consequential in blue collar professions, our immigration system is designed to bring in white collar workers, by prioritizing higher levels of education in the points system and using international students as a feedstock for new permanent resident applications.

There is no quick fix for this. I almost feel we need to open the floodgates to anyone who has a trade as well. There should also be some sort of incentives for businesses to take on apprentices and to train what they need instead of poaching from another company,

Originally Posted by JHikka

Agreed. Once cities reach a specific size either as a bar or as a proportion of their province they should be granted additional powers to manage themselves. It's beyond time that Toronto outgrew the chains that Ontario places upon it.

You mean like the Toronto Act?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/City_of_Toronto_Act

Originally Posted by esquire

When did retired seniors do those things? I remember visiting a lot of elderly relatives and close family friends back in the 80s and 90s and I don't think I can ever remember anyone voluntarily opting to live in an apartment. And I don't come from a wealthy family, there were lots of working class immigrants in the extended family. The only real exceptions were those who eventually needed an assisted living environment. People then, as now, prefer to stay in their home for as long as their finances and health will allow.

As much as it sucks for those people trying to raise kids in a small condo in a big city, it seems even more distasteful to implement measures aimed at pushing grandma and grandpa out of the home they built in the 1970s.

My grandfather, born in the 20s, sold his 3 bedroom bungalow and moved into a 2 bedroom condo. Quit trying to make excuses to the entitled.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Cool. Do nothing then and accept that we have absolutely fucked the next 2-3 generations. At this point, it's not just Millenials. This will have fucked Zoomers and possibly Alphas too.

That is why the only fix will be a true depression. A recession won't be enough.

[Wigs]

Honestly Saskatoon in 2022 is not too bad. I was there in 2014 and you could tell the wheels of progress were in motion.
I think most Canadians perceptions are probably 2 or 3 decades behind.

The city has a young population, ~20-22% of the city is visibly minority, another ~11-12% Indigenous so the gene pool is not static like it would be in other Sask cities, say Swift Current ("the residents are neither Swift nor Current").

The downtown has the main shopping centre, decent bars and restaurants, mom and pops, the core is walkable, the riverfront is pretty. U Sask has a nice campus. Broadway Ave across from downtown has a "crunchy granola/artsy" vibe. People are generally more friendly than say cities in Ontario.

To me, harsh winters are it's biggest setback.

[casper]

Originally Posted by lio45

Saskatoon and Victoria are horribly overpriced, even before factoring the lower incomes and higher taxes (obviously making them even more overpriced), by American standards (which is what young talent has access to, if they want).

But at cost of living in the US. I have travelled enough to n the US to know it’s a great place to visit wit who would want to
Live there.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by casper

But at cost of living in the US. I have travelled enough to n the US to know it’s a great place to visit wit who would want to
Live there.

And that should tell you how bad it is here for our young people that so many of our best and brightest thinks it is better to take their chances in the US.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

And that should tell you how bad it is here for our young people that so many of our best and brightest thinks it is better to take their chances in the US.

Did you miss that NY Times article about Toronto's tech industry and that many new grads and workers are outright refusing to go to Silicon Valley, so they are either starting up companies in Ontario or forcing the big corporations to move more work here in Canada.
Even if one might not notice among the sea of skyscrapers in Toronto, one only has to explore Kitchener-Waterloo to see the tech growth happening.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/21/technology/toronto-tech-boom.html

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by casper

But at cost of living in the US. I have travelled enough to n the US to know it’s a great place to visit wit who would want to
Live there.

My folks lived in SC for 13 years until 2020 for my Dad's job.
The last 5 years they couldn't wait to move back home.
At this point you'd have to pry my father's Canadian passport from his dead cold hands

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Did you miss that NY Times article about Toronto's tech industry and that many new grads and workers are outright refusing to go to Silicon Valley, so they are either starting up companies in Ontario or forcing the big corporations to move more work here in Canada.
Even if one might not notice among the sea of skyscrapers in Toronto, one only has to explore Kitchener-Waterloo to see the tech growth happening.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/21/technology/toronto-tech-boom.html

There's a lot more places one can go than Silicon Valley.

Also, like I said, we have the great cycle where we export our best and then replace them with cheaper imported labour. Come talk to me when the percentage of grads from our top schools leaving Canada goes down.