AUSTIN | Waterline | 1,034 Feet | 73 Floors | T/O - Page 106

StoOgE · #**2101** Posted **Jun 24, 2022, 1:41 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lonewolf

Austin has benefitted from every recession/downturn going on almost three decades. Our economy is the least riskiest bet in the country. Money will seek a safe haven, companies will look to lower costs with minimal compromise on talent, that's Austin. We saw a boom from covid, we saw a boom from the subprime mortgage loan crisis. If we enter a recession (more likely than not imo) people and companies will seek to move here.

That said there is a small chance any project could get cancelled, but nothing that has gone vertical will get cancelled (builders know this and i suspect we have already seen some projects hitting gas faster than they otherwise would)

I agree with you but there will come a point where our increased cost of living will catch up to Austin. We're still a pretty safe bet but places like Boise/Nashville/Reno are potentially going to start looking more appealing than Austin.

paul78701 · #**2102** Posted **Jun 24, 2022, 1:56 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by StoOgE

I mean - there are real economic forces that are harming the economy. The global supply chain is still a wreck, ocean freight costs are still astronomical, raw material shortages are extremely real, inflation is the highest its been in 40 years and the labor market is completely wrecked.

The fed is currently fighting 8% inflation and a labor market where non-college education workers are seeing a 14% annual increase in wages and trying to figure out how to curb inflation without bringing the economy to a screeching halt.

All very true. I admittedly glossed over a lot of this in an effort to not take us too far off topic. At any rate, these are issues. If they don't moderate, they could eventually cause enough pain to take us into a recession. So far, they haven't though. Some of those issues could start moderating for many reasons. If China ends their never-ending lockdowns, war in Ukraine ending, etc. Again, this is off topic and way more complicated than we can/should get into here.

My basic point is that much of the recession prediction game has been a lot of worrying and guessing rather than being evidence based. There's just not enough evidence yet to say that we're definitely going into a recession.

bobbywest87 · #**2103** Posted **Jun 24, 2022, 2:07 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by paul78701

All very true. I admittedly glossed over a lot of this in an effort to not take us too far off topic. At any rate, these are issues. If they don't moderate, they could eventually cause enough pain to take us into a recession. So far, they haven't though. Some of those issues could start moderating for many reasons. If China ends their never-ending lockdowns, war in Ukraine ending, etc. Again, this is off topic and way more complicated than we can/should get into here.

My basic point is that much of the recession prediction game has been a lot of worrying and guessing rather than being evidence based. There's just not enough evidence yet to say that we're definitely going into a recession.

Thanks everyone for the responses and helping me understand. My only reason for bringing it up on this particular skyscraper was because of the Reddit/r/Austin thread where people were questioning whether (or why) this tower is going up right before an “imminent” recession.

We vs us · #**2104** Posted **Jun 24, 2022, 2:38 PM**

I'm on Team Mild Recession at the moment -- there's enough job creation and aggregate demand to ameliorate the worst of it. Of course the Fed can crush that with more interest rate shenanigans, but . . I think they're actively trying to straddle that line and not be reckless.

We're still a hot market, though, and I get the sense that COVID uncapped a whole different type of demand for Austin, and from a different set of folks who may be more resistant to recessionary forces than the average.

austlar1 · #**2105** Posted **Jun 24, 2022, 7:48 PM**

If these projects have secured funding, there is a good chance they will be completed no matter what shape the economy is in. If the economy does become soft, it might take a good long while to sell or lease all the expensive apartments, and the already squishy demand for office space might tank badly. That will all be on the owners of these projects, a situation that they'll have to deal with post-construction. In a really bad economy, these projects could fall into receivership, but, at this point, if they have construction loans secured, they'll likely get built.

wwmiv · #**2106** Posted **Jun 24, 2022, 7:57 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by StoOgE

I agree with you but there will come a point where our increased cost of living will catch up to Austin. We're still a pretty safe bet but places like Boise/Nashville/Reno are potentially going to start looking more appealing than Austin.

The cities you listed are having the same problems (Nashville) or are much more expensive (Boise and Reno). There aren’t many cities not experiencing a cost of living crisis, only those that are still in the throes of economic restructuring (very few of these left).

Part of this is a natural consequence of the economic restructuring away from manufacturing and resource extraction (which distribute jobs widely between a variety of cities and rural areas) and toward tech, professional, and service (which concentrate jobs in preexisting urban cores), which places disproportionate pressure on a small selection of locales to absorb all or most of the national population growth.

Imagine a world where Grand Junction had grown into a larger city anchoring a larger ~1 mil metro.

Strayone · #**2107** Posted **Jun 25, 2022, 3:42 PM**

https://www.emporis.com/images/show/...r-exterior.jpg It's evidently unused!

DougRockstead · #**2108** Posted **Jun 25, 2022, 5:40 PM**

That is straight up ugly!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strayone

https://www.emporis.com/images/show/...r-exterior.jpg It's evidently unused!

austlar1 · #**2109** Posted **Jun 25, 2022, 6:48 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Strayone

https://www.emporis.com/images/show/...r-exterior.jpg It's evidently unused!

I watched that building go up back in the 1960s from my 12th floor dorm room in Monroe Hall at Tulane. It was a truly strange looking building perched on the edge of the CBD by the train station. It's always struggled financially. Built as an office tower, I think part of it was converted to apartments many years ago. Not sure what is going on there now.

Geckos_Rule · #**2110** Posted **Jun 27, 2022, 1:57 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by DougRockstead

That is straight up ugly!!

I am almost certainly the minority opinion in this, but I think this building is almost to the point where it's so ugly that it's nice. Kind of like the old Verizon switching building in NYC that had been maligned for decades. I liked it, since it set off so many other nice looking buildings beside it.