CHICAGO | Economic & Business Development

[MayorOfChicago]

Our company has us back now 60% of the time and that seems to be the limit anyone is willing to go for. I would be fine with 40% (two days). WFH was unexpected and I was surprised at the degree it changed my life for the better, took away a lot of stress and anxiety. Also have three year old twins so that's a big reason it's essential for me.

In talking with friends I have multiple who have been told they will not be coming back downtown at all, they will WFH for good.

A few others who have been told their new schedules (permanent) are between 2 and up to 4 days a week.

I have not talked to anyone who is coming back 5 days a week (or even anyone who would be willing to do so).

I think a mix will be around 50% once the dust settles. Lots of people home for good and lots of people between 50% and 80%.

[galleyfox]

On that note, a much healthier trend would be for some offices to shift from weaker commercial districts into the Loop. Then allow those other areas to pursue alternate growth opportunities, whether residential or something else.

The Hancock Tower owners think there’s an underserved medical market in Streeterville. Awesome. They will always have residential as a last resort, but offices are not as critical to the Mag Mile.

Dubbed the "Mag Mile Medical Pavilion" and situated in 130,000 square feet in the lower portion of the 100-story tower, the initial plan is one of the highest-profile examples of a downtown office landlord pivoting as the COVID-19 pandemic has fueled the rise of remote work and threatened to permanently reduce corporate appetites for workspace. Hearn, which has owned the office portion of the tower since 2013, is poised to invest tens of millions of dollars reshaping part of the building on a bet that major hospital chains and private physician groups will clamor for clinical space there and help shore up its tenant roster, while the post-COVID state of downtown offices remains cloudy.
———
Hearn's vision comes as much out of necessity as ingenuity. One of the tower's largest office tenants, real estate software firm SMS Assist, announced last fall it would leave for Prudential Plaza, opening up a big block of available space for Hearn amid record-high downtown office vacancy.
———
The space gave Hearn the chance to dedicate a portion of the building for clinical space, something he says he had been eyeing since Lurie moved some of its office space into the Hancock in 2018. The children's hospital has more than doubled its space since then to more than 100,000 square feet.
———

Core to his thesis is that Streeterville's 13 million-square-foot supply of health care real estate is nowhere near enough to handle the demand in the neighborhood. He cites a projection from health care consulting firm Advisory Board that demand for services including orthopedics, physical therapy and pain management within five miles of Streeterville, for example, will all jump by around 25% over the next five years.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/comm...cant-corporate

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by left of center

Looks like we are lagging our peers (and the US average) when it comes to employment growth. The only reason that could be good news is if the county has much lower unemployment rates than the US average, and the low increase is due to us nearing full employment, which I am pretty sure isn't the case. The wage growth looks to be solidly above average however, which is great.

I think we’ll have to wait for Marothisu to take a look. Comparing 2020 to 2021 will look strange without the 2019 baseline.

They posted some city proper data a few days ago which suggests strong employment, as well as strong MSA employment.

City proper resident employed population Dec 2021 vs. Dec 2019 via BLS:

Chicago: +0.44%

San Jose: -1.4%
DC: -1.79%
Detroit: -2.29%
St. Louis: -2.38%
San Diego: -2.7%
MPLS: -2.81%
Boston: -2.82%
SF: -3.56%
Miami: -4%
LA: -4.88%
Philadelphia: -7.44%
NYC: -8.2%

https://twitter.com/marothisu/status...639413251?s=21

[galleyfox]

The December BLS data is basically that the Chicago metro could be doing a lot worse considering NYC, LA, SF, Vegas, Orlando, and New Orleans are still deep in the pit.


https://eig.org/news/which-metros-ha...ecovery-so-far

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

I think we’ll have to wait for Marothisu to take a look. Comparing 2020 to 2021 will look strange without the 2019 baseline.

They posted some city proper data a few days ago which suggests strong employment, as well as strong MSA employment.


https://twitter.com/marothisu/status...639413251?s=21

Yeah, the data quoted in the other post is county level data (New York County is Manhattan for the record - NYC is made of 5 different counties). I think the employment for Chicago IIRC actually came on quite strong in 4Q. The LAU from the BLS is more current than whatever was used above so I'm not sure why we're busy quoting that..

Sep-Dec 2021 employment changes
Cook County, IL: +5.33% (+126,442 employed persons)
Wayne County, MI: +3.59% (+26,124 EP)
San Bernardino County, CA: +2.76% (+25,277 EP)
Tarrant County, TX (Fort Worth): +2.75% (+29,180 EP)
Riverside County, CA: +2.72% (+28,366 EP)
Santa Clara County, CA (San Jose): +2.63% (+25,923 EP)
San Diego County, CA: +2.56% (+37,095 EP)
Dallas County, TX: +2.55% (+33,916 EP)
San Francisco County, CA: +2.51% (+13,466 EP)
Travis County, TX (Austin): +2.45% (+18,376 EP)
Harris County, TX (Houston): +2.09% (+45,648 EP)
Middlesex County, MA: +2% (+17,336 EP)
Orange County, CA: +1.94% (+29,191 EP)
Los Angeles County, CA: +1.72% (+79,719 EP)
Clark County, NV: +1.68% (+17,444 EP)
King County, WA: +1.66% (+20,781 EP)
Maricopa County, AZ (Phoenix): +1.59% (+36,796 EP)
Fulton County, GA: +1.56% (+8528 EP)
Miami-Dade County, FL: 1.29% (+16,537 EP)
Bexar County, FL: +1.25% (+11,559 EP)
Broward County, FL: +1.14% (+11,464 EP)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa) +1.12% (+8657 EP)
Duval County, FL (Jacksonville): +0.63% (+3150 EP)
New York County, NY (Manhattan): +0.32% (+2571 EP)
Kings County, NY (Brooklyn): +0.31% (+3267 EP)
Queens County, NY (Queens): +0.29% (+2959 EP)
Bronx County, NY (The Bronx): +0.27% (+1397 EP)


Cook County, IL is actually killing everyone else in terms of increase of employed population in those months..

[Randomguy34]

Huh, the top two employment increases have been from the Chicago and Detroit area. This makes some intuitive sense that the two largest metros in the Midwest would experience large job growth amidst a warehouse and e-commerce boom. I'm still amazed by how large Chicago's numbers are, they're 100k larger than even Detroit's numbers! I'm also surprised at how well Chicago is able to fill those jobs. Was there a sudden population boom in the last three months or something?

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

Huh, the top two employment increases have been from the Chicago and Detroit area. This makes some intuitive sense that the two largest metros in the Midwest would experience large job growth amidst a warehouse and e-commerce boom. I'm still amazed by how large Chicago's numbers are, they're 100k larger than even Detroit's numbers! I'm also surprised at how well Chicago is able to fill those jobs. Was there a sudden population boom in the last three months or something?

I think there's so many factors determining population change, but I looked at January thru December for employed persons, and nope Chicago MSA is the 2nd highest in terms of percent change in employed persons for 2021 of 47 metro areas. A lot of metro areas had strong growth Jan to September but then not as good from Sep to Dec. Orlando is a prime example of that - huge growth in those first 9 months and then really really slow to end the year. Chicago's was more balanced through those 2 periods with strong growth for both periods.


1. Orlando: +10.69%
2. Chicago: +9.92%
3. LA: +9.45%
4. Austin: +8.49%
5. Portland: +7.85%
6. Miami: +7.7%
7. Tampa: +7.63%
8. Phoenix: +7.29%
9T. Dallas: +7.08%
9T. Jacksonville: +7.08%
11. Houston: +7.04%
12. San Jose: +6.92%
13. SF: +6.85%
14. San Diego: +6.57%
15. Atlanta: +6.11%
16. Riverside, CA: +6.05%
17. San Antonio: +5.87%
18. Raleigh: +5.74%
19. Seattle: +5.54%
20. Las Vegas: +5.49%
21. NYC: +5.42%
22. Charlotte: +5.29%
23. Milwaukee: +5.26%
24. Denver: +5.16%
25. Detroit: +4.99%
26. Louisville: +4.96%
27. Salt Lake City: +4.77%
28. Nashville: +4.68%
29. New Orleans: +4.63%
30. Sacramento: +4.61%
31. Memphis: +4.59%
32. Cincinnati: +4.58%
33. Oklahoma City: +4.54%
34. Honolulu: +4.35%
35. DC: +4.32%
36. Philadelphia: +3.95%
37. Boston: +3.92%
38. Minneapolis: +3.85%
39. Baltimore: +3.77%
40. Kansas City: +2.86%
41. St. Louis: +2.53%
42. Pittsburgh: +2.52%
43. Virginia Beach: +2.25%
44. Columbus, OH: +2.25%
45. Richmond, VA: +2.17%
46. Cleveland: +2.14%
47. Indianapolis: +1.97%

[pip]

I got to say, the number crunching here is amazing. Thanks everyone

[marothisu]

I don't know, it all seems pretty newsworthy don't you think?

Jan - Dec 2021 Labor Force Population Change By MSA:
1. Orlando: +7.53%
2. Tampa: +6.27%
3. Jacksonville: +6.1%
4. Austin: +5.75%
5. Chicago: +4.87%
6. Portland: +4.18%
7. Dallas: +3.87%
8. Detroit: +3.86%
9. San Jose: +3.82%
10. San Francisco: +3.33%
11. Miami: +3.32%
12. Houston: +3.21%
13T. Atlanta: +3.11%
13T. Raleigh: +3.11%
15. Nashville: +2.85%
16. San Antonio: +2.72%
17. Phoenix: +2.71%
18. Los Angeles: +2.7%
19. Salt Lake City: +2.46%
20. Charlotte: +2.42%
21. Louisville: +2.37%
22. San Diego: +2.36%
23. Milwaukee: +2.34%
24. Riverside, CA: +2.19%
25. Denver: +2.08%
26. Seattle: +2.04%
27. Cincinnati: +1.95%
28. Minneapolis: +1.47%
29. DC: +1.42%
30. Memphis: +1.41%
31. Baltimore: +1.32%
32. Las Vegas: +1.28%
33. Oklahoma City: +1.19%
34. Sacramento: +1.14%
35. NYC: +0.89%
36. Philadelphia: +0.13%
37. Kansas City: +0.12%
38. St. Louis: -0.02%
39. Boston: -0.04%
40. Columbus, OH: -0.34%
41. Honolulu: -0.35%
42. New Orleans: -0.57%
43. Richmond, VA: -0.93%
44. Virginia Beach: -1.31%
45. Cleveland: -1.5%
46. Indianapolis: -1.55%
47. Pittsburgh: -2.08%

[marothisu]

Well, well, well. I guess some peoples' dreams of various cities dying might have to wait a bit.


Employed persons % change from January 2021 to December 2021 for city propers:

1. Chicago: +11.8%
2. Orlando: +10.66%
3T. Long Beach, CA: +9.68%
3T. Los Angeles: +9.68%
5. Miami: +9.27%
6. SF: +9.2%
7. Austin: +8.56%
8. NYC: +8.03%
9. Tampa: +7.69%
10T. Mesa, AZ: +7.3%
10T. Phoenix: +7.3%
12. Dallas: +7.24%
13. Jacksonville: +7.13%
14. Portland: +7.1%
15. Houston: +7.08%
16. San Jose: +6.95%
17. Fort Worth: +6.88%
18. San Diego: +6.57%
19. Colorado Springs: +6.14%
20. Atlanta: +6.12%
21. San Antonio: +5.9%
22. Detroit: +5.7%
23. Louisville: +5.64%
24. Tucson: +5.51%
25. Las Vegas: +5.49%
26. Charlotte: +5.39%
27. Oakland: +5.34%
28. Milwaukee: +5.32%
29. Denver: +5.13%
30. Fresno: +4.92%
31. Nashville: +4.8%
.32 New Orleans: +4.65%
33. Seattle: +4.63%
34. Sacramento: +4.61%
35. Oklahoma City: +4.57%
36. Omaha: +4.52%
37. Boston: +4.49%
38. Memphis: +4.37%
39. Honolulu: +4.35%
40. Cincinnati: +4.29%
41. Washington DC: +4.11%
42. Kansas City: +3.89%
43. Baltimore: +3.88%
44. El Paso: +3.83%
45. Minneapolis: +3.73%
46. Philadelphia: +3.12%
47. Bakersfield: +3.07%
48. St. Louis: +2.7%
49. Virginia Beach: +2.31%
50. Columbus, OH: +2.16%
51. Cleveland: +2.1%
52. Indianapolis: +2%

[the urban politician]

^ Impressive. But more info needed

[the urban politician]

Does this mean I can finally raise rents to keep up with inflation? Because that wasn’t possible in some parts of town in 2020 or 2021 (since nobody rides the train any more)

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ Impressive. But more info needed

I've given more info about week or 2 ago. Chicago the city has more employed persons in Dec 2021 than it did in Dec 2019 before the pandemic began here with the lockdowns and huge job loss. The entire MSA is only 30K under now. The city and MSA labor force population in Dec 2021 were both above Dec 2019.

As cities recover..at least in December from that perspective..Chicago had. NYC, DC, LA, Miami, Houston, Minneapolis, Detroit, Boston, SF, etc are all still below those numbers.

[marothisu]

I want to drive home a point about how insane an 11.8% increase in employed persons is in 1 year. It took Austin 3 years and Dallas 4 years to put up similar percentages during their booms a handful of years ago.

Now, there was a big dip obviously. But a lot of these jobs were thought to be lost. Maybe many were but from the overall jobs perspective it looks like there's been a surge of jobs. No idea how many of them would be a net new job vs. A business like a bar or restaurant going on hiatus for a year or more.

[sentinel]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ Impressive. But more info needed

I think the information that marothisu has already provided is pretty clear, not sure what other information you think you need.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by marothisu

The LAU from the BLS is more current than whatever was used above so I'm not sure why we're busy quoting that.

One might be more current, but the other is more accurate.

The metro-level data you are using is based on 2 different surveys (establishment and household). Each survey has proven to have big issues during COVID and get heavily revised. The result is that we get "faster" data, but it is less reliable. For example, last summer those surveys under-counted employment by around 1 million people.

The county-level data comes from actual state workforce agencies, which is why there is a lag. The upside is that we have pretty reliable information.

I think the most valuable part of the county-level data is the wage comparison across counties and the breakdown of wages/employment by industry. It's not as valuable for measuring total employment.

[OrdoSeclorum]

Originally Posted by marothisu

I want to drive home a point about how insane an 11.8% increase in employed persons is in 1 year. It took Austin 3 years and Dallas 4 years to put up similar percentages during their booms a handful of years ago.

Now, there was a big dip obviously. But a lot of these jobs were thought to be lost. Maybe many were but from the overall jobs perspective it looks like there's been a surge of jobs. No idea how many of them would be a net new job vs. A business like a bar or restaurant going on hiatus for a year or more.

I'm a Chicago booster and these are the kinds of numbers I hope for, but I'm a little incredulous. Chicago is big and can absorb a lot--there are weekends where there's a conference in town, the Rolling Stones have two shows at Soldier Field and the Bulls are playing and I don't even notice anything different.

But with these kinds of trends in, say, Seattle or Austin, it seems like you hear lots of buzz from realtors and recruiters about obvious, on-the-ground changes. I understand that journalists and provocateurs are mostly only looking for negative stories about Chicago, but I still feel like I'd pick up on this vibe more directly.

I'm not saying it's not as it seems according to the data. I'm just scratching my head a bit.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by OrdoSeclorum

I'm a Chicago booster and these are the kinds of numbers I hope for, but I'm a little incredulous. Chicago is big and can absorb a lot--there are weekends where there's a conference in town, the Rolling Stones have two shows at Soldier Field and the Bulls are playing and I don't even notice anything different.

But with these kinds of trends in, say, Seattle or Austin, it seems like you hear lots of buzz from realtors and recruiters about obvious, on-the-ground changes. I understand that journalists and provocateurs are mostly only looking for negative stories about Chicago, but I still feel like I'd pick up on this vibe more directly.

I'm not saying it's not as it seems according to the data. I'm just scratching my head a bit.

Well, looking at IL individual income tax collections by month:

11/20 12/20 1/21
1,458,505,088.96 1,964,513,525.85 2,345,147,510.46

11/21 12/21 1/22
1,622,715,693.79 2,147,094,909.35 2,671,092,765.47

It definitely appears there are significantly more employed people and or higher incomes now than a year ago.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by OrdoSeclorum

But with these kinds of trends in, say, Seattle or Austin, it seems like you hear lots of buzz from realtors and recruiters about obvious, on-the-ground changes. I understand that journalists and provocateurs are mostly only looking for negative stories about Chicago, but I still feel like I'd pick up on this vibe more directly.

I'm not saying it's not as it seems according to the data. I'm just scratching my head a bit.

Anecdotal, but the employment situation feels very very different in 2021/22 compared to 2019, at least for me.

I had to find a new job in Autumn 2019 which took about 4 months. Then, the new company went belly up during the early pandemic, and my final months of that work there mainly consisted of managing bounced checks. What a nightmare.

I take some time off in 2020/2021 to help some of my family in South Florida move to Chicago. (The Florida convention business was abysmal, and unemployment insurance there was a complete joke.)

I look for a job in Chicago again in 2021, and every single interview is basically, “Oh, you can speak in full sentences. Awesome. You’re hired.” Job search takes about a week. More or less the same for other family members. Meanwhile, my neighbor was talking about how they finally got a trucking job.

——

Despite the local Chicago news wanting its pint of bad news, it just doesn’t have the same bite as what I’m hearing out of NYC.

[bnk]

Expect big news about Chicagoland economic prowess tomorrow soon.

Yes, it's that time of the year again.