CHICAGO | General Discussions

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

Some more demographic data posted online.

https://gist.github.com/bread-fixer/...2412bda847de28

I'm glad - now I don't have to post online

[Barrelfish]

Thanks all for the really interesting analysis of the census data. Here is my attempt to summarize the big themes - anything I got wrong or missed?

Overall, Chicago city proper grew slightly (+1.9% from 2010-2020). This was enough to maintain its #3 population rank, but was slower than any other top 25 city.

That overall growth number is largely the result of two big opposing trends:
- Significant growth in the core and along the lakefront (on both the north and south sides)
- ...largely offset by slowed-down (but still significant) "black flight" from a handful of south and west-side neighborhoods which suffer from concentrated poverty and crime.

Racial mix stayed at roughly 30/30/30 White/Latino/Black, with 7% Asian, 3% mixed race and other. Racial segregation seems to be trending down across the whole city (non-blacks moving into historically black neighborhoods, non-whites into historically white neighborhoods, etc.)

Zooming out, the Chicago metro area remains #3 in population, but is one of the slowest growing large metros (+144K or +1.7% from 2010-2020). The suburbs in aggregate are growing more slowly than the city, and the growth was slower the farther you go out.

The state outside of the Chicago MSA lost significant population (-162K / -3.8%), so overall state population declined slightly.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by ardecila

I guess that's true but my impression of West Englewood is the Latino community pushing east/lakeward from Gage Park and Chicago Lawn. That is a very unusual move for Chicago where groups tend to move outward over time, or teleport into wealthy/gentrifying areas like Lakeview, River North, or Wicker Park. It's also unusual in the sense that departing Black residents have historically left a vacuum in their wake, followed by mass abandonment and demolition. It's nice to see a real demographic transition in West Englewood so we aren't laying waste to a whole section of the city.

Maybe it ties back to the gentrification in places like Wicker Park, Logan Square, Humboldt Park, Avondale, etc? It's possible these people are being priced out of North/West Side neighborhoods and migrating to the South Side in response.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by moorhosj1

Maybe it ties back to the gentrification in places like Wicker Park, Logan Square, Humboldt Park, Avondale, etc? It's possible these people are being priced out of North/West Side neighborhoods and migrating to the South Side in response.

It’s possible, but the South side is quite far for people priced out of the North. Austin, Garfield Park, and some suburbs are more likely destinations. Also North side has more Puerto Rican whereas South is more Mexican.

Most likely the children of families who settled on the Southwest side and other new immigrants need space, and the South side has space and mostly affordable prices.

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by Barrelfish

Thanks all for the really interesting analysis of the census data. Here is my attempt to summarize the big themes - anything I got wrong or missed?

Overall, Chicago city proper grew slightly (+1.9% from 2010-2020). This was enough to maintain its #3 population rank, but was slower than any other top 25 city.

That overall growth number is largely the result of two big opposing trends:
- Significant growth in the core and along the lakefront (on both the north and south sides)
- ...largely offset by slowed-down (but still significant) "black flight" from a handful of south and west-side neighborhoods which suffer from concentrated poverty and crime.

Racial mix stayed at roughly 30/30/30 White/Latino/Black, with 7% Asian, 3% mixed race and other. Racial segregation seems to be trending down across the whole city (non-blacks moving into historically black neighborhoods, non-whites into historically white neighborhoods, etc.)

Zooming out, the Chicago metro area remains #3 in population, but is one of the slowest growing large metros (+144K or +1.7% from 2010-2020). The suburbs in aggregate are growing more slowly than the city, and the growth was slower the farther you go out.

The state outside of the Chicago MSA lost significant population (-162K / -3.8%), so overall state population declined slightly.

Basically.

If Chicago could have the sheer scale of Asian immigration that NY or LA typically has, Chicago would have population growth in the bag.

Our paltry Asian numbers just aren’t enough to combat black flight and the slowdown in Mexican immigrations.

South Asians come in large numbers but a large chunk of them wind up in the suburbs.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Basically.

If Chicago could have the sheer scale of Asian immigration that NY or LA typically has, Chicago would have population growth in the bag.

Our paltry Asian numbers just aren’t enough to combat black flight and the slowdown in Mexican immigrations.

South Asians come in large numbers but a large chunk of them wind up in the suburbs.

There's a lot of Asian growth in the suburbs for the record. I've been looking at a bunch of those and there's some pretty impressive numbers some places as well. If it wasn't for the massive white population losses in numerous suburbs, the region would have grown a lot. I've looked at over 40 suburbs and only 2 had white population growth. Naperville lost 11,000 white people between 2010 and 2020. If they had only lost 4000, then Naperville's growth would have been over 10%.

But the underlying theme I'm seeing and others have written about - many suburbs are getting a lot more diverse and it's not just because a bunch of white people left. It's because these populations are actually growing in many suburbs.

In no way is this exhaustive but just to give you a sense of Asian population growth in some suburbs between 2010 and 2020

- Naperville: +12,175 Asian people
- Aurora: +6554
- Schaumburg: +6092
- Buffalo Grove: +5240
- Arlington heights: +3003
- Des Plaines: +2540
- Glenview: +2507
- Skokie: +2289
- Vernon Hills: +2083
- Morton Grove: +2042
- Hoffman Estates: +2032
- Bolingbrook: +1896
- Mount Prospect: +1880
- Northbrook: +1877
- Palatine: +1711
- Wheeling: +1680
- Carol Stream: +1649
- Lombard: +1614
- Elgin: +1610
- Bartlett: +1450
- Evanston: +1346
- Rolling Meadows: +1186
- Niles: +1090
- Hinsdale: +1086
- Lincolnshire: +1015
- Lisle: +1015

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Basically.

If Chicago could have the sheer scale of Asian immigration that NY or LA typically has, Chicago would have population growth in the bag.

Our paltry Asian numbers just aren’t enough to combat black flight and the slowdown in Mexican immigrations.

South Asians come in large numbers but a large chunk of them wind up in the suburbs.

It would be tough for Chicago to all-of-a-sudden start reaching the same Asian immigration levels as NY and LA. Those cities have been attracting tons of Asian immigrants since the 1800s. Which makes sense as they are the two biggest cities in the country and located on the coasts.

It seems that historically, Chicago's large immigrant waves have tended to be more Catholic-based (Irish, Italian, Polish, Mexican, Filipino) than geography-based. More recently, we have seen influxes from farther east in Europe (Ukraine and Serbia) and finally, Asia (India, and China). Maybe the next wave will include more immigration from Africa (Nigeria, Kenya, etc.).

[Chisouthside]

Wonder if all those suburban whites are moving to florida/texas/arizona. They cant all be moving back into the city or NWI.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Chisouthside

They cant all be moving back into the city or NWI.

Definitely not NWI. That part of the the "great Illinois exodus" narrative was overblown in the media.

There are 4 NWI counties in chicago's MSA, plus a 5th in the CSA.


2010 - 2020 Numerical Growth | % Growth (2020 population):

Lake County: +2,695 | +0.5% (498,700)
Porter County: +8,872 | +5.4% (173,215)
Newton County: -414 | -2.9% (13,830)
Jasper County: -560 | -1.7% (32,918)

LaPorte County: +950 | +0.9% (112,417)

Total 5-county NWI region: +11,543 | +1.4% (831,080)


So other than Porter's decent growth, those are pretty paltry growth numbers across "the region". Hardly indicative of some great cross-border mass migration because taxes.

[moorhosj1]

Originally Posted by Chisouthside

Wonder if all those suburban whites are moving to florida/texas/arizona. They cant all be moving back into the city or NWI.

They aren’t all moving back to the city. I think the younger generations are a combo of (1) staying in the city at a higher rate and (2) waiting longer to have kids and move out to the burbs.

[marothisu]

I didn't look at the Indiana counties or Kenosha County for this, but here's the breakdown of changes from 2010 to 2020 for the major racial groups...

Hispanic
- Cook County: +138,016 Hispanic people
- Lake County, IL: +31,975
- Will County: +25,034
- DuPage County: +22,785
- McHenry County: +11,456
- Kane County: +11,205
- Kendall County: +9319
- DeKalb County: +2950
- Kankakee County: +2353
- Grundy County: +1616

Total: +256,709 people


Other
- Cook County: +76,320 other people
- DuPage County: +17,491
- Will County: +14,125
- Lake County, IL: +14,059
- Kane County: +9686
- McHenry County: +7953
- Kendall County: +3798
- Kankakee County: +2869
- DeKalb County: +2855
- Grundy County: +1504

Total: +150,660

Asian
- Cook County: +89,822 Asian people
- DuPage County: +27,189
- Lake County, IL: +14,947
- Will County: +11,958
- Kane County: +3686
- Kendall County: +1222
- McHenry County: +957
- Grundy County: +148
- Kankakee County: +39
- DeKalb County: -120

Total: +149,848


Black
- Will County: +4837 Black people
- Kendall County: +3350
- DuPage County: +3177
- DeKalb County: +2151
- McHenry County: +1028
- Lake County, IL: +258
- Grundy County: +256
- Kane County: -1580
- Kankakee County: -1581
- Cook County: -80,177

Total: -68,288

White
- Kendall County: -466 White people
- Grundy County: -1054
- Kankakee County: -9627
- DeKalb County: -12,576
- McHenry County: -19,925
- Kane County: -21,744
- Will County: -37,159
- Lake County, IL: -50,352
- DuPage County: -54689
- Cook County: -143,115

Total: -350,707


So the Illinois exodus stories were mainly about White people and a bit about Black people and completely ignored the fact that Hispanic, Asian, and Other population outgained the loss of White and Black people?
- Hispanic, Asian, and Other: +557,217 people
- White and Black: -418,995 people

[Chisouthside]

Originally Posted by marothisu

i didn't look at the indiana counties or kenosha county for this, but here's the breakdown of changes from 2010 to 2020 for the major racial groups...

hispanic
- cook county: +138,016 hispanic people
- lake county, il: +31,975
- will county: +25,034
- dupage county: +22,785
- mchenry county: +11,456
- kane county: +11,205
- kendall county: +9319
- dekalb county: +2950
- kankakee county: +2353

total: +255,093 people

asian
- cook county: +89,822 asian people
- dupage county: +27,189
- lake county, il: +14,947
- will county: +11,958
- kane county: +3686
- kendall county: +1222
- mchenry county: +957
- kankakee county: +39
- dekalb county: -120

total: +149,700

other
- cook county: +76,320 other people
- dupage county: +17,491
- will county: +14,125
- lake county, il: +14,059
- kane county: +9686
- mchenry county: +7953
- kendall county: +3798
- kankakee county: +2869
- dekalb county: +2855

total: +149,156

black
- will county: +4837 black people
- kendall county: +3350
- dupage county: +3177
- dekalb county: +2151
- mchenry county: +1028
- lake county, il: +258
- kane county: -1580
- kankakee county: -1581
- cook county: -80,177

total: -68,544

white
- kendall county: -466 white people
- kankakee county: -9627
- dekalb county: -12,576
- mchenry county: -19,925
- kane county: -21,744
- will county: -37,159
- lake county, il: -50,352
- dupage county: -54689
- cook county: -143,115

total: -349,653


so the illinois exodus stories were mainly about white people and a bit about black people and completely ignored the fact that hispanic, asian, and other population outgained the loss of white and black people?
- hispanic, asian, and other: +553,949 people
- white and black: -418,197 people

wow

[marothisu]

Oops, forgot Grundy County which is only barely over 50K people. Post above was updated - point remains very much the same.

[the urban politician]

The wait is much shorter getting into Golden Corral lately where I live, so these numbers explain a lot.......

[Chisouthside]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

The wait is much shorter getting into Golden Corral lately where I live, so these numbers explain a lot.......

the suburban chilis will slowly start to be replaced by hot pot and mariscos spots.

[Klippenstein]

Originally Posted by marothisu

[...]here's the breakdown of changes from 2010 to 2020 for the major racial groups...
[...]
Black
- Will County: +4837 Black people
- Kendall County: +3350
- DuPage County: +3177
- DeKalb County: +2151
- McHenry County: +1028
- Lake County, IL: +258
- Grundy County: +256
- Kane County: -1580
- Kankakee County: -1581
- Cook County: -80,177

Total: -68,288

This is interesting to see that most suburban counties gained Black population and Cook County outside of Chicago actually reported a gain in Black population of 4621 people.

According to the Sun-Times, IL as a whole lost significantly less Black people than the City of Chicago.

The state experienced a 3% decrease in its Black population — or about 57,000 Black residents — in the last decade, according to the census.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2021/8/...al-composition

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Klippenstein

This is interesting to see that most suburban counties gained Black population and Cook County outside of Chicago actually reported a gain in Black population of 4621 people.

According to the Sun-Times, IL as a whole lost significantly less Black people than the City of Chicago.

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2021/8/...al-composition

Right, certainly a lot of people moved to the suburbs.

It's also hard to tell what fraction of the change in white population is due to people choosing to identify as "Other/Mixed" more.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

Right, certainly a lot of people moved to the suburbs.

It's also hard to tell what fraction of the change in white population is due to people choosing to identify as "Other/Mixed" more.

In those 10 IL counties..
White population change: -350,707
Other population change: +150,660

Even if literally every single person part of the "other" group was part of these counties previously and previously identified as white, it wouldn't even come close to telling the story. Certain it can tell a little bit but case in point, there's an absolute minimum of a few hundred thousand white people who just entirely left the metro area.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by marothisu

there's an absolute minimum of a few hundred thousand white people who just entirely left the metro area.

i'd imagine that some of that loss will also be white deaths > white births, so it's not 100% people moving out of the metro area altogether.

but yes, no matter how you slice it, a shit-ton of white people left chicagoland (not exactly a revelation, but still interesting to see the actual numbers in the data).

it's interesting how black-flight is THE demographic challenge of the city proper (with all other groups in the city growing), but at the metro level, it's really white people who are the problem.

white people are always the fucking problem

[left of center]

Fascinating research, marothisu! Much appreciated by this math and numbers nerd.

The collapsing white population this last decade (2010-2020) has really eclipsed the story of last decade's census (2000-2010) in which the collapsing black population in the Chicago area was the main story. Looks like the black population is slowing down its losses. Hopefully it will stabilize by the next census, and even begin growing after that.

While we are seeing less Mexican/Central & South American immigration in the metro (which I believe is really the story for the US as a whole), it appears its may be getting offset by more Asian immigration/relocation? Does anyone have any numbers on last decade's Asian numbers vs this decade's?

Originally Posted by Chisouthside

the suburban chilis will slowly start to be replaced by hot pot and mariscos spots.

Yes please!

More immigration means more tasty cuisines!