Quote:
Originally Posted by galleyfox
Ultimately 20% declines as happened to the black population between 2000-2010 are not a regular occurrence.
Looking back, the 2010 result was a perfect storm of easy home loans, a severe financial crisis and an imbalance of prices and employment opportunities vs the South. Not to mention, birth rate declines.
Chicago’s black population declined by 181453 or 17.22% for the 2010 census. To see a similar absolute population loss after 2020 would probably require East St. Louis (-31.6%) or bankrupt Detroit (-25.0%) failure of basic services which is not happening.
5-10% black population loss seems reasonable for the upcoming decade. Hopefully more integration in some neighborhoods should stem further losses.
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Black population also dropped in NYC, by 4.5% or 84.4 thousand. That despite the large overall population increase. Some of those leaving NYC may have been priced out, but seems reasonable to think that with the natural national and suburban migration occurring, not even including other factors, some continued drop is likely.
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