Official number won’t be posted for a couple weeks, but word from the airport today is that SMF will shatter all expectations with over
1,000,000 pax in July.
That is nothing short of spectacular and represents the first monthly count exceeding a million passengers since December 2019.
Let’s get the pandemic pachyderm out of the room now. A million passengers is a complete rejection of COVID fear. This unambiguous rejection of the fear/hysteria is absolutely relevant to this conversation because of the devastating impact the economic lockdown had, and continues to have, on air traffic.
If the million-plus passenger count holds, it represents an increase of over 600,000 passengers from July 2020.
In a metro area of about 2.5 million people, over 1 million passengers in a single month chose to fly again (half-a-million individuals). That’s not some nefarious conspiracy theory. It’s not “politicizing” public health. It’s a fact that supports the clear trend we have seen since early this year: fewer people care enough about COVID to stop them from flying.
Even if you feel that the fear-rejection is a mistake, and it is an opinion shared by many, there can be no other interpretation but that people are getting on with their lives.
As previously noted, July is typically the #1 month for travel out of SMF and we can expect growth to slow and eventually weaken over the coming months.
As we move into August, SMF is peaking at about 1035 scheduled flights per week. These are the top-10 markets as of this morning:
#1 SEA - 115 flights/week
#2 LAX - 100 flights/week
#3 SAN - 90 flights/week
#4 DEN - 73 flights/week
#5 LAS - 69 flights/week
#6 PHX - 69 flights/week
#7 SNA - 52 flights/week
#8 SLC - 41 flights/week
#9 PDX - 40 flights/week
#10 BUR - 37 flights/week
I spotted these changes on the recent United schedule load. It’s a bit of a mixed-bag, but overall good with a net increase of one flight in August.
UA goes to 4x day to ORD on 8/25/2021. +1
UA goes to 5x/day to DEN 8/1/2021. +1
UA goes to 2x/day to IAH 8/22/2021 losing the redeye. -1
Statewide, Flightaware posted a rebound metric showing July 2021 operations as a percentage of July 2019.
With a few exceptions that shouldn’t surprise anyone, California (and nearby) airports look good.
LGB – 133% of 2019 - #2 in nation.
RNO – 112% - #9
SNA – 110% - #10
FAT – 105% - #16
ONT – 93% - #39
SMF – 85% - #48
BUR – 85% - #50
LAX – 77% - #61
OAK – 76% - #66
SAN – 75% - #68
SJC – 64% - #75
SFO – 57% - #80
Btw – Only New York’s La Guardia Airport ranked lower than SFO with the return of barely half of its 2019 flight count.
That’s it for now, but simply incredible news re the traffic rebound at SMF, assuming a million-plus is confirmed mid-month.
Happy flying everyone!