AUSTIN | Projects & Construction III

[bossabreezes]

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

There has been a world-wide shortage of materials dating back to 2017 (and the pandemic has only worsened the situation).

Also, Austin is not going to "fall on its own sword," at least not in the mid-term. Even though most Austinites are in awe of the increase in property values, it is still far lower than either coast (let alone the overall cost of living). Currently, the risk of a housing bubble is still quite low.

The cookie cutter suburban areas are cheaper than the East Coast, but the places that people actually want to be are pretty outlandishly and artificially expensive IMO. I'm sure many East Coasters would agree.

I'm not trying to be rude or upset anyone when I say this, I just see this becoming a problem in the not-too-distant future. It could be a bubble on the horizon or some kind of slowdown due to the expense. I think Nashville is in a similar situation, although Nashville actually has more scarcity of land due to topography than Austin does and potentially justifies its high housing costs.

I don't see many young New Yorkers moving to Austin to live in a cookie cutter suburb, but precisely to the overly expensive areas that we're talking about. I know quite a few people, including one of my best friends who turned down a transfer to Austin due to its COL, and they currently live in New York. I've also worked out that living in Austin would cost more per month than it would in New York for me, mainly due to the necessity of having a car, something I don't have right now. Rents are actually not much cheaper out there for something nice.

In any case, I wish Austin the best and hope it can solve its housing issue.

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

The cookie cutter suburban areas are cheaper than the East Coast, but the places that people actually want to be are pretty outlandishly and artificially expensive IMO. I'm sure many East Coasters would agree.

Well sure, but the cookie cutter suburban areas are for people that want families and/or space at a relatively inexpensive price compared to the coasts.
Obviously tech has boomed, but so has every industry that comes with rapid population growth.

Desirable parts of Austin are outlandish to buy in as of 2021, but folks with money are still snatching them up. Austin, unlike DFW and Houston, does have some geographical constraint that coincides where most people would want to leave.

I'm not trying to be rude or upset anyone when I say this, I just see this becoming a problem in the not-too-distant future. It could be a bubble on the horizon or some kind of slowdown due to the expense. I think Nashville is in a similar situation, although Nashville actually has more scarcity of land due to topography than Austin does and potentially justifies its high housing costs.

I don't see many young New Yorkers moving to Austin to live in a cookie cutter suburb, but precisely to the overly expensive areas that we're talking about. I know quite a few people, including one of my best friends who turned down a transfer to Austin due to its COL, and they currently live in New York. I've also worked out that living in Austin would cost more per month than it would in New York for me, mainly due to the necessity of having a car, something I don't have right now. Rents are actually not much cheaper out there for something nice.

In any case, I wish Austin the best and hope it can solve its housing issue.

Austin isn't just a hip place to live in anymore, it's a place where people want to move to and put down roots. It has matured.

I think Austin does have a severe issue in the short term (1-3 years) but it just needs the bottlenecks to unclog. As you noticed earlier, it has lots of new infrastructure and open space in the eastern half.

[ILUVSAT]

Originally Posted by bossabreezes

The cookie cutter suburban areas are cheaper than the East Coast, but the places that people actually want to be are pretty outlandishly and artificially expensive IMO. I'm sure many East Coasters would agree.

I'm not trying to be rude or upset anyone when I say this, I just see this becoming a problem in the not-too-distant future. It could be a bubble on the horizon or some kind of slowdown due to the expense. I think Nashville is in a similar situation, although Nashville actually has more scarcity of land due to topography than Austin does and potentially justifies its high housing costs.

I don't see many young New Yorkers moving to Austin to live in a cookie cutter suburb, but precisely to the overly expensive areas that we're talking about. I know quite a few people, including one of my best friends who turned down a transfer to Austin due to its COL, and they currently live in New York. I've also worked out that living in Austin would cost more per month than it would in New York for me, mainly due to the necessity of having a car, something I don't have right now. Rents are actually not much cheaper out there for something nice.

In any case, I wish Austin the best and hope it can solve its housing issue.

I wouldn't worry about Austin. It's going to do just fine. I think I read last month that 45% of new Austinites came from either the Bay Area, New York or Chicago (55% coming from intra-state). Maybe the New Yorkers moving there don't mind living in cookie-cutter neighborhoods?!? Maybe that is the appeal?!? I don't know. But, they're moving. Austin is just not right for everyone. And that is a-okay.

With regard to Austin's prices...value is based on what someone is willing to pay. Just like you are only worth what someone is willing to pay you. Supply and demand. And, there is quite a gap in Austin right now. As more housing comes online, prices will stabilize. There is currently no concern of a bubble within the real estate professional establishment.

Additionally, Austin has it own topographical (and ecological/environmental) challenges - especially in its entire western frontier (from northwest Austin metro to southwest Austin metro). And the east side is not exactly flat either.

All-in-all, I too hope that the city can fast-track the entitlement process for a myriad of housing projects in the pipeline.



*A few interesting recent data points - since a comparison to Nashville was broached:
Nashville: seeing about ½ of the active listings it saw at this point in 2020. Roughly 2.4 months of inventory.
Austin: seeing about ¼ of the active listings it saw at this point in 2020. Roughly 0.4 months of inventory.

Austin, Phoenix, Nashville, Tampa and Denver are expected to be the hottest markets in 2021. While New York, San Fransisco and Los Angeles are expected to be the weakest.

[AviationGuy]

I don't have the data, but it seems like the steep terrain in the hills and valleys of southwest through northwest Austin haven't kept growth at bay in those areas. Many newcomers want to live in those close-in scenic areas if they can afford it. But they also want to live in the central part, which is so incredibly expensive that it's just ridiculous. I think someone mentioned already that there must be plenty of families that are perfectly happy in the cookie cutter burbs, which are still relatively reasonable. I know people who are moving east to the burbs in the former farmlands. That wouldn't be for me, but for many, it's just fine.