The Metro Vancouver Real Estate Thread

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Agreed, $300 per unit is negligible. I'd like to see the NDP offer more assistance to stratas to retrofit for charging stations, if they're going to raise the carbon tax, some of it should flow back to initiatives like that.

Well, they renewed the same program the BC Liberals had, which is pretty good:

https://pluginbc.ca/charging-program/charging-solutions-incentives/

Incentive amount: 75% of project costs up to $4,000 per Level 2 station with a max of 2 stations per property.

I'm surprised we didn't see anything new in the budget though, given the presence of the Greens.

The problem with retrofitting is more about navigating strata.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

What does that bolded part even mean? If that's a cost to the entire building, it's negligible.

I'm currently trying to navigate retro-fitting, and it's a huge hassle.

Edit: I see they are just piling on to the "taxes and fees" argument for expensive housing. Complete BS. Anybody who understands supply and demand will know that if government fees were to disappear overnight, prices would not change. Developers will charge whatever they can get. Prices are already coming down due to a decrease in demand.

When builders stop redeveloping, we can look at their costs.

Here is what I was referring to:

Between 2008 and 2018 development fees for an average 900-square-foot downtown Vancouver unit has increased from $43,000 to $343,000, according to UDI figures.

The fees include other DCCs — which are already used by municipalities to cover capital costs of infrastructure associated with growth, such as roads, water and sewer networks — community-amenity contribution (CAC) fees, public-art fees, and permits and inspection fees. It doesn’t include the new transit DCC and taxes.

Source: http://theprovince.com/news/local-news/t...wcm/ed5eaa00-b38d-47a0-912f-89bf4f2b3e1f

[wrenegade]

I'm sorry, but in what fucking world does it only cost $300 to add an electric vehicle charging station? That article didn't mention anywhere where that number came from. The actual cost is much much higher. However, the biggest headache is with apportioning the costs. Are the charging stations check-metered on the strata's building account? Are they wired back to a particular strata lot? Do they have their own hydro meters? EV charging in multi-family building present a lot of problems. Hydro currently won't let you have more than one meter per strata lot, so they can't be metered separately. The BC Hydro/the province won't let you charge more than their own rate for power, so if the charging stations are check metered (via a 3rd party such as Enerpro) then who pays the monitoring cost? Are all of the stations hard-wired back to individual suites?

As a developer currently wrestling with all of these issues, I can tell you its not as easy as just sticking another plug in the wall and the cost is much much more than $300 per suite (it's going to cost more than that just to get the drawings done).

[s211]

Originally Posted by wrenegade

I'm sorry, but in what fucking world does it only cost $300 to add an electric vehicle charging station? That article didn't mention anywhere where that number came from. The actual cost is much much higher. However, the biggest headache is with apportioning the costs. Are the charging stations check-metered on the strata's building account? Are they wired back to a particular strata lot? Do they have their own hydro meters? EV charging in multi-family building present a lot of problems. Hydro currently won't let you have more than one meter per strata lot, so they can't be metered separately. The BC Hydro/the province won't let you charge more than their own rate for power, so if the charging stations are check metered (via a 3rd party such as Enerpro) then who pays the monitoring cost? Are all of the stations hard-wired back to individual suites?

As a developer currently wrestling with all of these issues, I can tell you its not as easy as just sticking another plug in the wall and the cost is much much more than $300 per suite (it's going to cost more than that just to get the drawings done).

Yup. Blatant cost-underestimation by the green crowd drives me batty. Same sort of BS when "experts" just a few years ago were claiming that 100% of all California car sales would be electric by 2019.

If you want buy-in, don't BS me, or you've just lost me.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by wrenegade

I'm sorry, but in what fucking world does it only cost $300 to add an electric vehicle charging station? That article didn't mention anywhere where that number came from. The actual cost is much much higher. However, the biggest headache is with apportioning the costs. Are the charging stations check-metered on the strata's building account? Are they wired back to a particular strata lot? Do they have their own hydro meters? EV charging in multi-family building present a lot of problems. Hydro currently won't let you have more than one meter per strata lot, so they can't be metered separately. The BC Hydro/the province won't let you charge more than their own rate for power, so if the charging stations are check metered (via a 3rd party such as Enerpro) then who pays the monitoring cost? Are all of the stations hard-wired back to individual suites?

As a developer currently wrestling with all of these issues, I can tell you its not as easy as just sticking another plug in the wall and the cost is much much more than $300 per suite (it's going to cost more than that just to get the drawings done).

All they are required to do is run 240V (30A?) service to the parking stall. From a build perspective, $300 per run might be a reasonable cost, I don't know. Obviously it doesn't include billing/metering/EVSE equipment, etc.

It doesn't have to be as complex as you mention. You could just levy a $50-$100/month fee on everybody that uses a plug to charge their EV. Not perfect, but easy enough to implement.

[LeftCoaster]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

All they are required to do is run 240V (30A?) service to the parking stall. From a build perspective, $300 per run might be a reasonable cost, I don't know. Obviously it doesn't include billing/metering/EVSE equipment, etc.

It doesn't have to be as complex as you mention. You could just levy a $50-$100/month fee on everybody that uses a plug to charge their EV. Not perfect, but easy enough to implement.

Biggest issue is the switchgear and supply equipment. That many chargers requires a LOT of juice and to supply all the equipment up front is very expensive and tough to estimate load when you don't know the utilization rate so you could end up with a very overbuilt system.

[jlousa]

I can share our costs. $28k to install a dozen stations and that's because we had spare capacity on our main distribution panel. Otherwise it would be 6 figures and that's also with heavily subsidized stations.

[SpongeG]

Cannabis or carrots': Grow ops on B.C.'s protected ALR farmland spark debate

Tight industrial property supply in the Lower Mainland sends recreational-marijuana growers looking for more affordable places

Naomi Powell
Financial Post

With the legalization of recreational marijuana expected to tighten the vise on Vancouver’s already strained property supply, the question of whether to open protected farmland to grow operations is stirring fierce debate in British Columbia.

The property firm Colliers International argued in a white paper this week that locating marijuana greenhouses on the least arable portions of B.C.’s Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR) would be “a viable alternative” to the province’s dwindling supply of industrial land – particularly in the 148,000-acre South Coast Panel Region that includes Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

“Recreational cannabis will create additional competition in an already highly competitive market,” said Andrew Rojek, Colliers’ manager of market intelligence for Western Canada. “So should the ALR change its uses; we see it as an opportunity and an alternative to traditional industrial facilities, which are really important to Vancouver at the moment, given that availability is so very tight.”

A broad shift to online shopping has squeezed Vancouver’s supply of industrial space, which includes the warehouses and other facilities most likely to attract players from the nascent pot industry. Available industrial space in the city sat at 2.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year, the second-lowest level in North America after Toronto’s 2.1 per cent, according to property firm CBRE.

Medical marijuana growers are already allowed on the ALR, a 4.6-million-hectare swath of protected farmland designated for agricultural purposes, including food production. Opening up the space to recreational marijuana operations would allow them to grow without infringing on industrial space – the only option for some businesses, said Rojek.

...

http://business.financialpost.com/real-e...-c-s-protected-alr-farmland-spark-debate

[casper]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

All they are required to do is run 240V (30A?) service to the parking stall. From a build perspective, $300 per run might be a reasonable cost, I don't know. Obviously it doesn't include billing/metering/EVSE equipment, etc.

It doesn't have to be as complex as you mention. You could just levy a $50-$100/month fee on everybody that uses a plug to charge their EV. Not perfect, but easy enough to implement.

Apples and oranges. In a single family home where once the house is built no one will every go back and update drawing then the cost is having an electrician run a cable and install a plug as long as the panel does not need to be upgraded.

In a multi-family building or high-rise good luck getting away with that. There will be engineers, CAD etc. involved. I don't know how modern high-rises buildings are constructed the one I most recently lived in has meters on each floor. Adding a plug for each parking stall is a massively long run back up to the panel in each unit. No one is going to do that.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by jlousa

I can share our costs. $28k to install a dozen stations and that's because we had spare capacity on our main distribution panel. Otherwise it would be 6 figures and that's also with heavily subsidized stations.

Not bad all things considered. I would assume most modern buildings have some spare capacity, though not enough to wire every spot.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by casper

Apples and oranges. In a single family home where once the house is built no one will every go back and update drawing then the cost is having an electrician run a cable and install a plug as long as the panel does not need to be upgraded.

In a multi-family building or high-rise good luck getting away with that. There will be engineers, CAD etc. involved. I don't know how modern high-rises buildings are constructed the one I most recently lived in has meters on each floor. Adding a plug for each parking stall is a massively long run back up to the panel in each unit. No one is going to do that.

The original post was talking about development fees for large condo projects, not retro-fitting.

[whatnext]

Vancouver Real Estate Inventory Jumps 38%, Now At 34 Month High

Just a matter of time before prices drop.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Vancouver Real Estate Inventory Jumps 38%, Now At 34 Month High

Just a matter of time before prices drop.

Such a bi-bifurcated market.

The board stats are showing Condos still up MoM, but SFH mostly down MoM.

Neighbourhoods where I watch, North Burnaby, SFH down 1.5% on the month, while condos up the same amount.

That's a huge divergence if turned into a medium term trend.

It really makes one wonder, when presale 2 bedrooms are at the $1 million and over mark, but one can get a house for $1.2. Who's going with the 2 bed?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by rofina

Such a bi-bifurcated market.

The board stats are showing Condos still up MoM, but SFH mostly down MoM.

Neighbourhoods where I watch, North Burnaby, SFH down 1.5% on the month, while condos up the same amount.

That's a huge divergence if turned into a medium term trend.

It really makes one wonder, when presale 2 bedrooms are at the $1 million and over mark, but one can get a house for $1.2. Who's going with the 2 bed?

Yep. in areas I follow condo inventory is up close to 100%. Just wait till all the flippers try to unload Cambie Corridor units.

We're reaching the point where even a two bed condo in the city is out of reach for two incomes. Ridiculous, when you look at incomes.

[Alex Mackinnon]

This is why people are trying to find good shorts. She's poppin'!

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

This is why people are trying to find good shorts. She's poppin'!

Interesting to see there are more properties for sale in Shaughnessy, land of few homes and large lots, than in False Creek, chock full of condos. I hope who is ever holding them gets burned.

[rofina]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

This is why people are trying to find good shorts. She's poppin'!

I posted this in the other thread, how does a crash even look like here?

Say we go through a real correction, of 25% - that brings a 2 bedroom pre-sale down to $750,000-ish from $1,000,000-ish.

Does that really do much for any local?

50% cut across the board makes the math more interesting, bringing the 2 bed back down to $500,000-ish.

Do we really believe that:

- We will see a 50% crash in Vancouver
- Will builder be able to develop with prices down by half? Land will obviously be much cheaper, but CAC's, taxes, build costs taken into account can a builder bring a unit to market for $500,000? I imagine trades might be more competitive and sharpen pencils, but by how much?

How do you guys see it?

[svlt]

Originally Posted by rofina

I posted this in the other thread, how does a crash even look like here?

Say we go through a real correction, of 25% - that brings a 2 bedroom pre-sale down to $750,000-ish from $1,000,000-ish.

Does that really do much for any local?

50% cut across the board makes the math more interesting, bringing the 2 bed back down to $500,000-ish.

Do we really believe that:

- We will see a 50% crash in Vancouver
- Will builder be able to develop with prices down by half? Land will obviously be much cheaper, but CAC's, taxes, build costs taken into account can a builder bring a unit to market for $500,000? I imagine trades might be more competitive and sharpen pencils, but by how much?

How do you guys see it?

I just don't ever see a 50% cut across the board happening here without significant upheaval in global economics and political stability; i.e. global war or a collapse of the domestic/international economy. This goes beyond local and domestic price controls unless it becomes full-blown socialism in BC. There will definitely be enough buyers, especially foreign buyers from a certain country with 800 billionaires to sustain prices at even a 20% cut from where it is today. That said, you're asking for a hot take and you got it I am not a realtor, just have close ties to several investors from said country.

[LeftCoaster]

50% cut? Oh wow that would be a complete shut down of the development industry. Bankruptcies across the board and a long period of nothing getting built.

Not saying it may not be the painful medicine this region needs, but make no mistake about it anything that big would be completely disastrous.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

50% cut? Oh wow that would be a complete shut down of the development industry. Bankruptcies across the board and a long period of nothing getting built.

Not saying it may not be the painful medicine this region needs, but make no mistake about it anything that big would be completely disastrous.

In an ideal world, that's when various levels of government would step up to build rental stock but we never seem to achieve that level of coordination.