Who are you choosing for mayor this election?

[Corndogger]

"New online poll shows Nenshi leading Smith by 17 points with just days before election"

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/n...17-points-with-just-days-before-election

This poll was done by Forum Research for the Canadian Municipal Election Study. This is so strange.

[CrossedTheTracks]

Originally Posted by Corndogger

"New online poll shows Nenshi leading Smith by 17 points with just days before election"

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/n...17-points-with-just-days-before-election

This poll was done by Forum Research for the Canadian Municipal Election Study. This is so strange.

What an... unusual... methodology:

• Telephone selection followed by online poll?
• Over a 14-day period?
• Where the lead researcher for the poll comments on his own poll, saying "he thinks the methodology is sound"? (Excellent investigative journalism, Calgary Herald, bravo!)
• Where the full list of questions isn't released?

I'm emphatically not going to claim that the results are wrong or rigged, but that's a large number of things making me go "hmm....".

[suburbia]

Regarding the polls, I had highlighted quite early on that there are major issues with Mainstreet, including the fact that they are being paid by Sean Chu and others from the developer slate, while also being paid by media as third party polling. Those involved with elections know that this is a no-no conflict of interest. Further, I had reported issues with Mainstreet's specific questions right from the on-set, including that they went back three times before the numbers were what Post-Media wanted - and that was reported as the first poll. We also know that Mainstreet was suspended from the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of Canada.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLkxLimVoAAs8jh.jpg

The other two polls by different agencies were quite consistent, including specific demographic information. The latest poll was actually conducted by academics from universities, and according to third party political scientists, was seen to be the most accurate and clean methodologically.

All being said, my fave from the last couple days has been Andre Chabot saying that if he had to pick between Nenshi and Smith, he'd pick Nenshi. He added that it was insulting that someone with zero experience like Smith was even running.

[Habanero]

Nothing so accurate as an actual election. I don't trust data from any of the pollsters, including the most recent one.

The latest poll was actually conducted by academics from universities

Because there's not likely to be any bias in their methodology either Yeah, not something that instills any more confidence than the other polls.

I'm betting the end result is Nenshi winning, but not by a lot.

Agree about Chabot. He should be the front runner competitor instead of Smith. The conservative backers blew it on this election...had they had gone with Chabot, the election would be a foregone conclusion and Chabot would have won. There are so many people that don't like Nenshi, but don't like Smith for his platform and experience. Almost everyone I know has been having a tough time with deciding. Someone you don't like, but has better experience, or go with the person who can unseat the person you don't like. Not to mention the vote splitting. Backing Chabot would have made it a two man race,and that wouldn't favor Nenshi.

Originally Posted by suburbia

Regarding the polls, I had highlighted quite early on that there are major issues with Mainstreet, including the fact that they are being paid by Sean Chu and others from the developer slate, while also being paid by media as third party polling. Those involved with elections know that this is a no-no conflict of interest. Further, I had reported issues with Mainstreet's specific questions right from the on-set, including that they went back three times before the numbers were what Post-Media wanted - and that was reported as the first poll. We also know that Mainstreet was suspended from the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of Canada.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLkxLimVoAAs8jh.jpg

The other two polls by different agencies were quite consistent, including specific demographic information. The latest poll was actually conducted by academics from universities, and according to third party political scientists, was seen to be the most accurate and clean methodologically.

All being said, my fave from the last couple days has been Andre Chabot saying that if he had to pick between Nenshi and Smith, he'd pick Nenshi. He added that it was insulting that someone with zero experience like Smith was even running.

[jawagord]

Originally Posted by suburbia

Regarding the polls, I had highlighted quite early on that there are major issues with Mainstreet, including the fact that they are being paid by Sean Chu and others from the developer slate, while also being paid by media as third party polling. Those involved with elections know that this is a no-no conflict of interest. Further, I had reported issues with Mainstreet's specific questions right from the on-set, including that they went back three times before the numbers were what Post-Media wanted - and that was reported as the first poll. We also know that Mainstreet was suspended from the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association of Canada.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLkxLimVoAAs8jh.jpg

The other two polls by different agencies were quite consistent, including specific demographic information. The latest poll was actually conducted by academics from universities, and according to third party political scientists, was seen to be the most accurate and clean methodologically.

All being said, my fave from the last couple days has been Andre Chabot saying that if he had to pick between Nenshi and Smith, he'd pick Nenshi. He added that it was insulting that someone with zero experience like Smith was even running.

So it would have been insulting in 2010 when Nenshi and Higgins ran with no experience? Suburbia you used to post things worth reading, this election has turned you into an innuendo spreading Nenshi shill.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by jawagord

So it would have been insulting in 2010 when Nenshi and Higgins ran with no experience? Suburbia you used to post things worth reading, this election has turned you into an innuendo spreading Nenshi shill.

It was a statement from Chabot. I think he was insulted as a Calgarian.

Further, I think the experience context mentioned was experience relevant to municipal governance. Nenshi had actually held elected office, had relevant education, worked in not-for-profit, and was already seen as an expert on dynamic cities and government. Heck, he had a Masters from Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.

[Big Sky]

This is so true. I'm solidly behind Nenshi, and always have been, but I'm finding Suburbia's posts super annoying, especially knowing he isn't supporting Nenshi for the same reasons as the rest of us.

Originally Posted by jawagord

Suburbia you used to post things worth reading, this election has turned you into an innuendo spreading Nenshi shill.

[suburbia]

Originally Posted by Big Sky

This is so true. I'm solidly behind Nenshi, and always have been, but I'm finding Suburbia's posts super annoying, especially knowing he isn't supporting Nenshi for the same reasons as the rest of us.

Not sure what that's supposed to mean. Can you elaborate with more precision?

I'm supporting him because he is the smartest in the room, is thoughtful and not "party centric". He believes in an inclusive cosmopolitan society, and a progressive and dynamic city. I'm with him because of his strong focus on transit with a longer term view. His focus on the city charter represents understanding of the frames of governance.

So what are you supporting him?

BTW - a #PurpleBlizzard is expected based on the forecast. Wonder how that will impact turnout?

[geotag277]

Originally Posted by CrossedTheTracks

What an... unusual... methodology:

• Telephone selection followed by online poll?
• Over a 14-day period?
• Where the lead researcher for the poll comments on his own poll, saying "he thinks the methodology is sound"? (Excellent investigative journalism, Calgary Herald, bravo!)
• Where the full list of questions isn't released?

I'm emphatically not going to claim that the results are wrong or rigged, but that's a large number of things making me go "hmm....".

Curated online polls might be starting to develop an accuracy that traditional robocalls are failing with in modern times.

Polling companies haven't really responded that well to including cell phones in their methodologies. If they call cell phones at all (which is more expensive due to regulation), they frequently treat them the same as land lines, when the demographics, usage patterns, and everything else are different.

Curated online polls which hybridize getting a random sample based on phone numbers, and following up with an easy to respond online survey is a very sound statistical methodology, and in the 2016 United States election, for example, there were early indicators that this style of polling as giving a more accurate result than the traditional robocalls:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/liv...ll-different-stories-about-the-election/

All in all, as traditional robocoll accuracy and effectiveness goes down, we will see a rise in hybrid and innovative polling methodologies start springing up. We might be witnessing one such example here in our own local petri dish of a polling experiment regarding this municipal election.