BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[retro_orange]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

I can't help but take pleasure in Stingray's arrogant Liberal bias being proven wrong.

Delicious. Truly.

(especially considering they are not true Liberals, just Conservatives that stole the moniker)

[Jebby]

Originally Posted by retro_orange

Delicious. Truly.

(especially considering they are not true Liberals, just Conservatives that stole the moniker)

So you mean actual liberals, you know the people that support limited government, free markets and individual rights before big government progressives stole the moniker.

[cornholio]

Now that is done and out of the way I wonder how they will bring forward electoral reform. Also out of all their policies the most interesting ones will be their response to speculation in the real estate market etc. I assume many of the Green policies will make it in sooner then later as they have NDP support in principal.

COOLING THE MARKET FOR RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE


A B.C. Green government will work with the federal government to introduce measures to eliminate money laundering and international property speculation from the B.C. residential real estate market.
A B.C. Green government will:
--Enhance the progressive nature of the property transfer tax (PTT) by introducing a sliding scale of rates from 0% on the first $200,000 for a property’s value, to 12% on property value over $3.0 million. (See charts below for implications).
--Apply the PTT to the transfer of beneficial ownership.
--Introduce a “speculation” PTT to discourage flipping of property.
--Expand the foreign buyers tax to apply across the province, and increase the rate to 30% in addition to PTT payable.
--Introduce measures to tax lifetime capital gains in excess of $750,000 on principal residences on homes bought and sold within 5 years.
--Work with financial institutions and the federal government to develop protections for recent homebuyers who are negatively affected by market cooling initiatives.
--A B.C. Green Government will begin to transition the home owner grants (HOG) starting in 2019, to be income based, to release funds for investment in affordable housing.
--A B.C. Green Government will introduce a progressive property tax system that imposes a surtax based on property value and allows homeowners to credit rental income and their previous year’s B.C. income tax against the surtax.

Proposed PTT Changes
Range
Current PTT rate
Proposed PTT rate
0 to $200,000
1%
0%
$200,001 to $500,000
2%
2%
$500,001 to $1.0 million
2%
2%
$1.0 million to $2.0 million
2%
6%
$2.0 million to 3.0 million
3%
10%
$3.0 million+
3%
12%

I also expect their social housing expansion to be supported by the NDP and make it through (+4000 units per year).
http://www.bcgreens.ca/housing

[Canadian74]

Oh man



Rip BC

[dleung]

Originally Posted by libtard

Goodbye Massey Bridge project

Yay!

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by dleung

Yay!

Agreed

[Stingray2004]

Haha. Interesting. Most here don't seem to have absorbed what I have previously posted.

OK. Today we have an accord between the NDP and Greens.

So we have 44 NDP/Greens v. 43 Libs. Remember, the Speaker will have to come from the 44 NDP/Green contingent. Again, remember that the Speaker is considered an independent officer of the legislature.

So we have 43 - 43 tie votes in perpetuity that must be broken by the Speaker. The Speaker's role is to break tie votes to "keep the status quo" but that's only expected to happen in "exceptional" circumstances - not "normal" circumstances. Just one key element in the LG's determination whether the accord is "stable" for a "reasonable period of time".

As an aside, after the agreement was reached, on social media a Lib insider is reporting that the NDP is contacting all Lib MLAs to see if they would take the Speaker's role - with no takers. Huh? This matter should have been dealt with in their written accord. What a clusterfuck from the get go.

Now the agreement itself, which details will be released tomorrow. If there are "political poison pills" contained therein that will annoy the electorate (my spidey sense suggests same), then the NDP/Green accord already has major political problems at the outset (aside from constitutional problems).

How I see events unfolding - The Libs will announce a new cabinet and set a date from the resumption of the legislature. The Throne Speech will be read by the LG. Then the vote. Here is where matters become politically dangerous.

If the gov't is defeated... the NDP/Greens believe that they will have the blessing of the LG to form a new gov't after the fact. But, again, the LG key tests are a "stable" gov't over a "reasonable period of time". If the NDP/Greens guess incorrectly, the LG will dissolve the legislature and issue writ for new election. Again, politically dangerous for all parties. It's called playing political "chicken".

Worth re-iterating constitutional expert Ron Cheffins, who has advised 5 BC LGs and how he would advise the BC LG:

Mr. Cheffins’ advice – should Ms. Guichon ask – would be to dissolve the freshly-elected Legislative Assembly and launch another election. “There is an alternative, a defensible, constitutional alternative,” he said. “But don’t get into the mess – let the electorate decide.”

Even today, constitutional expert Philippe Lagassé‏ stated:

The key issue for LG is stability.

This entire matter ain't over until the proverberial "fat lady sings".

Will give final word to Global TV's Keith Baldrey:

This is going to be a fascinating and likely wild ride

[jollyburger]

I think we'll have a new election.

[cornholio]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Haha. Interesting. Most here don't seem to have absorbed what I have previously posted.

OK. Today we have an accord between the NDP and Greens.

So we have 44 NDP/Greens v. 43 Libs. Remember, the Speaker will have to come from the 44 NDP/Green contingent. Again, remember that the Speaker is considered an independent officer of the legislature.

So we have 43 - 43 tie votes in perpetuity that must be broken by the Speaker. The Speaker's role is to break tie votes to "keep the status quo" but that's only expected to happen in "exceptional" circumstances - not "normal" circumstances. Just one key element in the LG's determination whether the accord is "stable" for a "reasonable period of time".

As an aside, after the agreement was reached, on social media a Lib insider is reporting that the NDP is contacting all Lib MLAs to see if they would take the Speaker's role - with no takers. Huh? This matter should have been dealt with in their written accord. What a clusterfuck from the get go.

Now the agreement itself, which details will be released tomorrow. If there are "political poison pills" contained therein that will annoy the electorate (my spidey sense suggests same), then the NDP/Green accord already has major political problems at the outset (aside from constitutional problems).

How I see events unfolding - The Libs will announce a new cabinet and set a date from the resumption of the legislature. The Throne Speech will be read by the LG. Then the vote. Here is where matters become politically dangerous.

If the gov't is defeated... the NDP/Greens believe that they will have the blessing of the LG to form a new gov't after the fact. But, again, the LG key tests are a "stable" gov't over a "reasonable period of time". If the NDP/Greens guess incorrectly, the LG will dissolve the legislature and issue writ for new election. Again, politically dangerous for all parties. It's called playing political "chicken".

Worth re-iterating constitutional expert Ron Cheffins, who has advised 5 BC LGs and how he would advise the BC LG:



Even today, constitutional expert Philippe Lagassé‏ stated:



This entire matter ain't over until the proverberial "fat lady sings".

Will give final word to Global TV's Keith Baldrey:

With a agreement in place (and we don't even know what it is yet) the only option of stability is Greens / NDP. Frankly after tomorrow this is all set in stone and then it is a matter of time for CC to either take the high road and resign or drag this out for a few months. If she drags this out I fully expect the Liberals to be punished for it in which case I assume the pressure from within the party will be to get this over with quickly.

Also not necessary but I fully expect at-least one Liberal to go independent or become the speaker. I am eyeing Steve Sullivan but who knows. But its not necessary for the new NDP / Green government.

A NDP Green government, who would have thought it Will be some drastic changes in the province over the next 2-4 years.

Originally Posted by jollyburger

I think we'll have a new election.

Not possible. We have a NDP Green government, learn to live with it. As their policies align closely I expect stability until there is electoral reform or next election in 4 years. If the Greens have their way that means October 2021.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by cornholio

If she drags this out I fully expect the Liberals to be punished for it

I suspect that CC will announce a new cabinet soon, which starts the clock ticking on next date of legislature... perhaps as early as next month in June.

Problem with your analysis though. If NDP/Greens bring down gov't in Throne Speech vote and LG does not accept NDP/Green as "stable" alternative gov't over "reasonable period of time"... which results in a new election... voters typically punish political parties taking down gov't causing such new election. Poli 101.

Fascinating game of political chicken being played out.

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by 240glt

^ what economy ? BC's economy (asside for real estste) has been tepid for decades.

Exactly. Nothing's left except for the port and real estate. The province has taken a nose dive in the last 15 years and I really hope we'll get election reform passed so the majority left can stay in power indefinitely as we should in a democratic system.

Also lol @ Stingray. You try way too hard.

[cornholio]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

I suspect that CC will announce a new cabinet soon, which starts the clock ticking on next date of legislature... perhaps as early as next month in June.

Problem with your analysis though. If NDP/Greens bring down gov't in Throne Speech vote and LG does not accept NDP/Green as "stable" alternative gov't over "reasonable period of time"... which results in a new election... voters typically punish political parties taking down gov't causing such new election. Poli 101.

Fascinating game of political chicken being played out.

Except it is not political chicken. The NDP Green agreement will spell out the plan and result in a stable government that will govern. The LG is not there to play politcs and fuck the province, they are there to ensure the democratically elected government governs and that democracy is respected, in this case it will be a NDP Green minority. The Liberals are out.

This was already set anyways, NDP Green agreement/coalition (we will see details tomorrow) any talks with the Liberals and Greens were just polite formalities. Also NDP Green platforms align very closely, without electoral reform they will govern for 4 years if that is what it takes without any major issues. I my country of birth with proportional representation the coalitions are often much more un natural and they manage to govern fine so there is nothing to actually be concerned about on that front (if that is what you are trying to imply). In comparison the NDP and Greens are almost identical and they have everything to gain by sticking together...until electoral reform is somehow pushed through at which point as soon as their agreement allows the Greens will want a election. With proportional representation the next election would be another NDP / Green government, almost certainly, just with Greens holding more seats. How do the NDP benefit? They are pretty much assured to form governments for the foreseeable future until the Liberals reform, or new parties appear. With proportional representation new viable parties can come about very quickly, as in within one or two election cycles.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Pinion

Also lol @ Stingray. You try way too hard.

Nah... It's called detailed analysis. My career depends upon same.

[240glt]

Originally Posted by Canadian74

Oh man



Rip BC

Pfft. BC will be just fine

It's Alberta that stands to lose much more

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Nah... It's called detailed analysis. My career depends upon same.

Ok well I hope you give your employer better anaylsis than the stuff you post here.

[milomilo]

Definition of same:

1
a : resembling in every relevant respect
b : conforming in every respect —used with as

2
a : being one without addition, change, or discontinuance : identical
b : being the one under discussion or already referred to

3
: corresponding so closely as to be indistinguishable

4
: equal in size, shape, value, or importance —usually used with the or a demonstrative (such as that, those) in all senses

Sorry, needs to be said!

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by cornholio

Not possible. We have a NDP Green government, learn to live with it. As their policies align closely I expect stability until there is electoral reform or next election in 4 years. If the Greens have their way that means October 2021.

NDP Government if there's another election, I doubt they'll complain about it much. Only the Greens lose in that scenario.

[libtard]

Originally Posted by 240glt

Pfft. BC will be just fine

It's Alberta that stands to lose much more

How so?

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by libtard

How so?

Greens and NDP both oppose Kinder Morgan

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Pinion

Ok well I hope you give your employer better anaylsis than the stuff you post here.

Haha. I am self-employed. Always have been.

In any event, will re-iterate again - matter is in hands of LG at end of day. And based upon constitutional experts, the "tests" involved for new gov't replacement are "stability" for "reasonable period of time" - likely 1 year in minimum.

Entire matter in LG's hands with her constitutional advisors. Can't stress that enough. Hell, it's not rocket science. But that's only after the legislature first meets and incumbent gov't defeated.

Tomorrow will be another day. We get to see details of NDP/Green accord. The first step.