CHICAGO | Economic & Business Development

[the urban politician]

Some other observations based on your numbers:

South shore is gentrifying more than Woodlawn. What’s going on with Woodlawn?

Pilsen is gentrifying faster than Avondale

Logan Square is on fire

Near West Side is insanity

South Loop probably has the most untapped potential right now

There are really quite a lot of observations one can make. Kenwood is gentrifying at a faster rate than Hyde Park, although Hyde Park is still gaining more higher income households in total numbers.

[bnk]

I found Madison Wisconsin to be outperforming its size.

More growth in 100K

Than other notably large metros such as Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Detroit, Cleveland,
Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Kansas City....


Interesting

These must be city limits and not metros.

[Vlajos]

Originally Posted by bnk

I found Madison Wisconsin to be outperforming its size.

More growth in 100K

Than other notably large metros such as Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Detroit, Cleveland,
Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Kansas City....


Interesting

These must be city limits and not metros.

Yes, the numbers marothisu posted are for city only.

[the urban politician]

Obviously Marothisu doesn't have time for this, but it would be neat to see how the numbers change if you change the household income to $200k, or $300k, etc.

My guess is that central area hoods and perhaps Lincoln Park, Lakeview will vastly stand out

[marothisu]

I think our idea of gentrification is maybe a little different. $100K+ obviously is, though in my opinion it starts more like $75K or even lower. I'm thinking too about all the people coming out of school and making a decent (but not 6 figure, usually) salary nowadays probably more like in the $55K - $85K range.

I can get data for $200K+ by community area - that's the highest the census makes available. I'll do that in some posts coming up. But first, here are some MSA numbers from 2010 to 2016 from the 1 year ACS (table B19001). Only MSAs of 1+ million people as of 2016.

Change in $100K+ Earning Households 2016 vs. 2010 by MSA
1. New York MSA: +550,644 households
2. Los Angeles MSA: +328,393 households
3. Chicago MSA: +260,648 households
4. Dallas MSA: +237,889 households
5. San Francisco MSA: +236,262 households
6. Houston MSA: +218,247 households
7. Seattle MSA: +188,864 households
8. Washington DC MSA: +187,693 households
9. Boston MSA: +176,001 households
10. Atlanta MSA: +166,378 households
11. Minneapolis MSA: +143,649 households
12. Philadelphia MSA: +137,306 households
13. Phoenix MSA: +129,084 households
14. Detroit MSA: +126,444 households
15. Miami MSA: +120,409 households
16. Portland MSA: +118,118 households
17. Denver MSA: +115,565 households
18. Charlotte MSA: +110,717 households
19. San Diego MSA: +104,463 households
20. Austin MSA: +103,945 households
21. San Jose MSA: +93,865 households
22. Baltimore MSA: +83,641 households
23. Tampa MSA: +82,117 households
24. Pittsburgh MSA: +78,667 households
25. Riverside, CA MSA: +78,401 households
26. St. Louis MSA: +76,882 households
27. Nashville MSA: +75,475 households
28. Sacramento MSA: +68,986 households
29. Cincinnati MSA: +67,860 households
30. Columbus, OH MSA: +65,694 households
31. Indianapolis MSA: +62,582 households
32. Orlando MSA: +59,741 households
33. San Antonio MSA: +58,861 households
34. Kansas City MSA: +56,106 households
35. Raleigh MSA: +54,228 households
36. Cleveland MSA: +52,182 households
37. Providence MSA: +51,398 households
38. Grand Rapids, MI MSA: +49,876 households
39. Jacksonville MSA: +42,318 households
40. Milwaukee MSA: +41,030 households
41. Salt Lake City MSA: +36,809 households
42. Virginia Beach MSA: +36,697 households
43. Oklahoma City MSA: +35,199 households
44. Las Vegas MSA: +34,866 households
45. Buffalo MSA: +32,265 households
46. Louisville MSA: +31,666 households
47. Hartford, CT MSA: +28,619 households
48. Richmond, VA MSA: +26,632 households
49. Rochester, NY MSA: +23,283 households
50. Birmingham, AL MSA: +22,582 households
51. Memphis MSA: +20,659 households
52. New Orleans MSA: +20,624 households
53. Tucson MSA: +16,133 households

[Vlajos]

marothisu, did you direct Crains to the latest story on millionaires too?

[the urban politician]

If you really want to do a hardcore analysis, you can use each city’s proportion of its metro’s population, and determine how that percentage compares to my percentages above, to determine if the central city is gaining >$100k households faster than, slower than, or at the same rate as the rest of its metro.

[the urban politician]

Ok I’m bored, here is a list of core city population as a ratio of metro population for the same 10 metros:

NYC 42%
LA 30%
Chicago 28%
Dallas 30%
SF 19%
Houston 34%
Seattle 19%
DC 11%
Boston 14%
Atlanta 8%

[the urban politician]

^ Much more revealing.

Among the big 5 gainers, Chicago is far outperforming it’s metro, and SF even more so.

The big Texas cities are underperforming compared to their metros, with Dallas in particular performing poorly. Meanwhile DC and Seattle’s core cities are way outperforming their metros.

This has been an interesting exercise.

[marothisu]

^ Yes. Chicago in the 6+ figure realm has been doing quite well and flying well under the radar both city wise and metro area wise. Chicago is very much outgrowing other cities and metro areas in this regard that were outgaining Chicago by a ton of population (overall) in the same time period.

The greater downtown area (Near North, Near West, Near South, and the Loop) has gained 5891 households making $200K+ from 2010 to 2016, a 44.6% increase. Add in West Town, Logan Square, Lincoln Park, Lakeview, North Center, Lincoln Square, and Uptown and you're talking about an increase of 13,049 households making a minimum of $200K per year, a 38.4% increase.

Entire cities (individually) that the downtown area + other handful of areas outgained:
Philadelphia
Boston
Miami
Atlanta
Portland
San Antonio

Also, the entire city of Dallas only outgained this small section of Chicago by less than 2000...And also, the downtown area alone outgained the entire city of Miami in this regard, and not much below the entire city of San Antonio.

The downtown + handful of other areas have a higher percentage of $200K+ households than the following entire cities of similar-ish size: Miami, Atlanta, Boston, Portland, Austin, etc.


$200K+ earning households by community area 2016 vs. 2010 in Chicago:
1. Near North Side: +2043 households
2. West Town: +2039 households
3. Near West Side: +1740 households
4. Lake View: +1445 households
5. The Loop: +1162 households
6. Logan Square: +1089 households
7. Near South Side: +946 households
8. North Center: +847 households
9. Uptown: +702 households
10. Lincoln Square: +660 households
11. West Ridge: +609 households
12. Portage Park: +468 households
13. Jefferson Park: +466 households
14. Norwood Park: +386 households
15. Lincoln Park: +376 households
16. Forest Glen: +375 households
17. Edison Park: +354 households
18. Avondale: +286 households
19. Albany Park: +279 households
20. Hyde Park: +258 households
21. Garfield Ridge: +229 households
22. Irving Park: +209 households
23. Brighton Park: +186 households
24. Ashburn: +174 households
25. Morgan Park: +166 households
26. Belmont Cragin: +150 households
27. Edgewater: +142 households
28. South Shore: +130 households
29. Montclare: +127 households
30. Austin: +120 households
31. Hermosa: +83 households
32. Mount Greenwood: +82 households
33. East Side: +79 households
34. Lower West Side: +64 households
35. McKinley Park: +57 households
36. Humboldt Park: +45 households
37. Dunning: +44 households
38. Chicago Lawn: +43 households
39. Beverly: +40 households
40T. O'Hare: +39 households
40T. West Lawn: +39 households
42. Washington Heights: +38 households
43. Kenwood: +37 households
44. Rogers Park: +30 households
45. West Garfield Park: +24 households
46. West Elsdon: +20 households
47. Avalon Park: +15 households
48T. Oakland: +13 households
48T. South Deering: +13 households
50T. Armour Square: +10 households
50T. Burnside: +10 households
50T. Woodlawn: +10 households
53T. Pullman: +8 households
53T. South Chicago: +8 households
55T. Clearing: +6 households
55T. East Garfield Park: +6 households
55T. Washington Park: +6 households
58. Fuller Park: +5 households
59T. Archer Heights: unchanged
59T. West Englewood: unchanged
61. Auburn Gresham: -2 households
62T. Bridgeport: -4 households
62T. Riverdale: -4 households
64. Hegewisch: -10 households
65. West Pullman: -13 households
66. North Park: -14 households
67. Gage Park: -18 households
68. Grand Boulevard: -25 households
69. South Lawndale: -30 households
70. Englewood: -38 households
71. New City: -39 households
72. Greater Grand Crossing: -40 households
73. Roseland: -41 households
74. Douglas: -43 households
75. North Lawndale: -69 households
76. Chatham: -129 households
77. Calumet Heights: -161 households

[Vlajos]

Thanks marothisu, great info as always!

[left of center]

^ Thanks for doing all that research, marothisu!

Glad to see my community area (West Town) is doing quite well. Seems to drop off precipitously at Kedzie though... Humboldt Park only saw a gain of 45 households, vs 2039 in West Town. It did better with the 100K+ crowd, at 327. Still got a long way to go before gentrification begins to arrive in that neighborhood in any meaningful way.

[bnk]

Not sure how true this article is but

GA,TX,NC,VA,FL...

Not so gay friendly states

Illinois ranks very high btw.





http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...423-story.html



The unspoken factor in Amazon's search for a new home: Jeff Bezos' support for gay rights

Jonathan O'Connell
Washington Post

April 23rd

...


That sentiment has not played well at Amazon, according to a person who has been on tour with Amazon as it met with local officials. "I just think Atlanta's out," the person, who is not an Amazon employee, said.
The Georgia legislature did not approve the adoption bill before it adjourned last month. The Georgia Department of Economic Development, which is handling Atlanta's bid for HQ2, declined to comment on the matter.

Amazon also declined to answer questions about the meetings, and it is not known how much a region's stance on gay rights ultimately will factor into its decision. The company's search for a region of "compatible cultural" values is one of many issues it has said it's considering as it chooses the new headquarters.
But the cause of gay rights has emerged as a focus for the company's founder and chief executive, Jeff Bezos. (Bezos owns The Washington Post).
One of Bezos's first public actions on same-sex marriage in 2012 took advocates by surprise.
The Supreme Court's decision allowing same-sex marriage nationwide was three years away when advocates in a bare-bones office in south Seattle plotted how best to ask Bezos and his wife about a donation.

...












Good state rankings and maps in this NY Times article



https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...to-be-gay.html

The Worst (and Best) Places to Be Gay in America

By Frank Bruni


...

[urbanpln]

Originally Posted by bnk

Not sure how true this article is but

GA,TX,NC,VA,FL...

Not so gay friendly states

Illinois ranks very high btw.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...423-story.html



The unspoken factor in Amazon's search for a new home: Jeff Bezos' support for gay rights

Jonathan O'Connell
Washington Post

April 23rd

...
That sentiment has not played well at Amazon, according to a person who has been on tour with Amazon as it met with local officials. "I just think Atlanta's out," the person, who is not an Amazon employee, said.
The Georgia legislature did not approve the adoption bill before it adjourned last month. The Georgia Department of Economic Development, which is handling Atlanta's bid for HQ2, declined to comment on the matter.

...
Good state rankings and maps in this NY Times article

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...to-be-gay.html

The Worst (and Best) Places to Be Gay in America

By Frank Bruni


...

I don't know if that article is accurate. It is well known that Atlanta is a huge draw for gay African Americans. There is a very large gay population in that city.

[LouisVanDerWright]

Originally Posted by urbanpln

I don't know if that article is accurate. It is well known that Atlanta is a huge draw for gay African Americans. There is a very large gay population in that city.

Yeah, but what are they running from? Atlanta itself may be great, but the State of Georgia has a clear bigoted slant on social issues and has made that abundantly clear in recent months. The question is not whether the city of Atlanta is accepting of gays, virtually every large city in the US is, it's whether Bezos is going to have to squabble with the State legislature over round upon round of back ass wards laws they are trying to push that would harass his 50,000 new employees...

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

Thanks marothisu, great info as always!

Originally Posted by left of center

^ Thanks for doing all that research, marothisu!

No problem. Now, this will put it into perspective. Here are the increases for all cities 250K+ population and I included the downtown area of Chicago (Near North, South, West, and the Loop) as well as that + Lakeview, Lincoln Park, West Town, Logan Square, Lincoln Square, Uptown, and North Center ("surrounding areas"). I also included the 5 boroughs of NYC in this.

Total 2016 population of the downtown + surrounding areas is just over 666K people (which is 21,000 people less than the entire city of Boston) while the downtown area I'm describing is 207,103. So keep that in mind that downtown Chicago alone outgained nearly 60 entire cities even though all were bigger. Downtown Chicago nearly outgained all of Indianapolis despite Indianapolis being 4X larger than downtown Chicago. Downtown Chicago outgained the entire city of Miami in this regard, even though Miami is 2X the size.

Downtown + surrounding area nearly outgained the entire city of Dallas despite Dallas being over 2.5X larger than this area of Chicago.


Change in $200K+ earning households 2016 vs 2010:
1. NYC: +106,584 households
2. San Francisco: +45,701 households
3. Los Angeles: +43,646 households
4. Brooklyn (NYC): +39,655 households
5. Manhattan (NYC): +38,146 households
6. San Jose: +34,155 households
7. Chicago: +29,792 households
8. Seattle: +28,650 households
9. Houston: +26,873 households
10. Queens (NYC): +19,364 households
11. Austin: +19,215 households
12. San Diego: +18,761 households
13. Washington DC: +16,477 households
14. Dallas: +14,958 households
15. DT Chicago + Surrounding: +13,049 households
16. Denver: +12,483 households
17. Portland: +11,078 households
18. Charlotte: +10,811 households
19. Phoenix: +10,624 households
20. Boston: +10,282 households
21. Oakland: +8827 households
22. Philadelphia: +8750 households
23. Atlanta: +7805 households
24. Irvine, CA: +7633 households
25. Baltimore: +6878 households
26. San Antonio: +6759 households
27. Raleigh: +6633 households
28. Indianapolis: +6325 households
29. Ft. Worth: +6280 households
30. Greater DT Chicago: +5891 households
31. Oklahoma City: +5765 households
32. Minneapolis: +5520 households
33. Jersey City, NJ: +5479 households
34. Jacksonville: +5328 households
35. Miami: +5176 households
36. Staten Island (NYC): +5162 households
37. Nashville: +5047 households
38. Omaha: +5032 households
39. Long Beach: +4957 households
40. Lexington, KY: +4438 households
41. Bronx (NYC): +4257 households
42. Tampa: +4246 households
43. Albuquerque: +4213 households
44. Honolulu: +4156 households
45. Fresno: +3852 households
46. Sacramento: +3832 households
47. Mesa, AZ: +3797 households
48. Plano, TX: +3492 households
49. Virginia Beach: +3445 households
50. Columbus, OH: +3426 households
51. Durham, NC: +3227 households
52. Colorado Springs: +3035 households
53. St. Louis: +3021 households
54. Las Vegas: +2994 households
55. Louisville: +2990 households
56. St. Paul: +2942 households
57. Kansas City: +2681 households
58. Bakersfield: +2680 households
59. Stockton, CA: +2654 households
60. Anchorage: +2518 households
61. New Orleans: +2445 households
62. Wichita: +2356 households
63. Madison, WI: +2267 households
64. Arlington, TX: +2257 households
65. Santa Ana, CA: +2148 households
66. Chula Vista, CA: +2109 households
67. Lincoln, NE: +1977 households
68. Cincinnati: +1967 households
69. Greensboro, NC: +1931 households
70. Corpus Christi: +1931 households
71. Anaheim: +1917 households
72. Cleveland: +1894 households
73. Memphis: +1828 households
74. Tulsa: +1702 households
75. Lubbock, TX: +1624 households
76. Henderson, NV: +1592 households
77. St. Petersburg, FL: +1587 households
78. Riverside, CA: +1538 households
79. Milwaukee: +1448 households
80. El Paso: +1364 households
81. Aurora, CO: +1345 households
82. Pittsburgh: +1263 households
83. Buffalo: +1257 households
84. Orlando: +1075 households
85. Tucson: +1062 households
86. Laredo, TX: +558 households
87. Detroit: +517 households
88. Newark, NJ: +475 households
89. Toledo: +375 households
90. Ft. Wayne, IN: +58 households

[the urban politician]

^ Interesting, although I have to admit Chicago performs better in the >$100k category than in the present one (same for LA).

SF really mops the floor, San Jose is quite impressive too, but Seattle and Houston are also high performers.

I’m more staggered by Seattle than Houston, actually, but in the end I wonder what’s happening here.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ Interesting, although I have to admit Chicago performs better in the >$100k category than in the present one (same for LA).

Technically within Chicago, that's not true at least by percentage. The $200K+ households increased within Chicago by 65.4% while the $100K - $200K increased by 38.8%. I mean raw numbers yes, but percentage wise increase, the $200K+ did much better.

SF really mops the floor, San Jose is quite impressive too, but Seattle and Houston are also high performers.

I’m more staggered by Seattle than Houston, actually, but in the end I wonder what’s happening here.

Seattle makes sense with the rapid increase of Amazon - they can pay pretty well. Then you have other high earning tech places in Seattle like Microsoft and Nintendo as well as startups. Not really that surprising. Seattle is doing a lot of good things from becoming more walkable/dense/urban to the number of 6+ figure earnings increasing quite a bit.

[marothisu]

IMO, Georgia government not being nearly as friendly to LGBTQ as many other states and also the whole Delta/NRA thing has basically taken Atlanta out of this HQ2 thing. At this point, I'd be shocked if they were chosen.

[JK47]

Originally Posted by marothisu

IMO, Georgia government not being nearly as friendly to LGBTQ as many other states and also the whole Delta/NRA thing has basically taken Atlanta out of this HQ2 thing. At this point, I'd be shocked if they were chosen.

Holding rallies with burning swastikas and deploying armored police against unarmed protesters is a much worse look for Georgia.