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  #1681  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 1:43 AM
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Not true. There was at least one poll that had him way out in front

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Originally Posted by Sir.Humphrey.Appleby View Post
That was just a blogger talking, there hasn't been any poll released that has him above 8%. Next week on the other hand, if a poll drops I would expect a significant bump.
     
     
  #1682  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 2:20 AM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is offline
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Straw polls are not polls

If it was a robo call, it could have also been a voter ID call for one of the candidates. Hitting every house in the city is great, since you force people to settle on a choice and you can push them out on election day with another automated call. Works like a charm. In an election like this where we may end up with three candidates in the 25 - 35% range, every bit counts.

The biggest result of the next public poll release will be to see if any of the also rans are out of the margin of error to zero range - if they remain stuck the media will likely stop covering the wider field.
     
     
  #1683  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 2:23 PM
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An interesting article from FFWD this week.

Quote:
A $1.5-billion reason to talk about subsidizing sprawl
Developers want taxpayers to foot the bill


Published September 30, 2010 by Trevor Scott Howell in News

Calgary taxpayers are doling out $24.5 million for the controversial Peace Bridge. The proposed airport tunnel could cost upwards of $500 million. Mayoralty election candidates must divulge campaign donors.

Those issues are largely dominating municipal election campaigns, but are they the most pressing matters facing this city?

Consider this: For the past decade Calgarians, under an agreement with residential developers, have been subsidizing water and sewer infrastructure for new suburbs. That bill to taxpayers now totals $1.5 billion — half of the city’s $3-billion debt.

That’s enough to buy three top-of-the-line airport tunnels, blanket the Bow River with 60 Spanish-designed bridges or finance a $1-million mayoral campaign 1,500 times over. Without a new arrangement between the city and developers, that bill will grow to $2.5 billion by 2018.

Currently, the city and the development industry are haggling over a new five-year deal — a thorny issue the newly elected city council will have to deal with — and a new report called Moving Beyond Now suggests scrapping subsidies for developers. Yet, mayoral hopefuls barely touched the issue at a September 28 forum organized by the development industry.

Playing it safe, the eight candidates at the forum appealed to the crowd with repeated promises of streamlining the development process, levelling the playing field and moving forward with developers.

But the issue of who should pay for new communities’ infrastructure has largely been flying under the radar. And that troubles retiring Ald. Joe Ceci, who teamed up with former provincial water and transportation planner Bob Morrison to examine the cost of subsidizing sprawl in their five-part report, Moving Beyond Now.

“It has enormous financial impacts on the city,” says Ceci. “I’m surprised more debate and discussion on this is not occurring.”

This will be one of its most pressing issues Calgary’s new council faces — arguably more important than the looming $60-million revenue shortfall. The outcome will ultimately determine if the city can afford to improve existing communities, says Morrison.

“If you spend the money in the established communities you’ll deal with fixing up existing roads so they can handle the local traffic and whatever traffic they’re getting from the outside rather than building more expressways that simply dump more traffic into established communities,” he says.

The only solution, as Morrison sees it, is to end developer subsidies and institute a true free market, in which the invisible hand would naturally correct the problem.

“Right now the market is distorted in favour of sprawl,” he says. “If you get rid of the sprawl subsidy it is actually a market-based solution to growth management.”

Using city data, including projected growth, land requirements and costs, Morrison calculates subsidizing sprawl will cost taxpayers an annual $47 million for several years. And if Calgary Plan-It, the city’s long-term guide for development, is clawed back that figure could almost double to $88 million a year.

BUSINESS AS USUAL?

It’s a tough sell for the industry to swallow. The executive director of the Urban Development Institute says water and sewer are a public utility, therefore the “entire population base” should pay for it.

“For a utility such as that I think that is the most equitable way to deal with it,” says Michael Flynn. “The city has said it can’t afford it. We’re trying to get a handle on why they could afford it before, but now they can’t.”

The current agreement, in which the city pays for the entire cost of sewer and water infrastructure for new developments, is working well for the industry, says Flynn.

“We felt that it was a fair and equitable agreement last time around, so we’re hoping we can come to a similar agreement this time around,” he says. “It’s not realistic to expect it to be identical, but similar.”

Earlier this year, retiring Mayor Dave Bronconnier talked about the city’s finances in almost apocalyptic terms. He said re-signing the existing deal with developers would “bankrupt” the city’s utility; taxpayers would see “double-digit increases from now over the next decade — every year double-digits” to their water bills.

In July, city council moved one step closer to axing subsidies for urban sprawl when it approved the Financing Municipal Infrastructure report, laying out the ground rules for negotiations with developers.

Throwing a wrench into the negotiations was a last-minute amendment to call the report “interim,” introduced by Ald. Diane Colley-Urquhart at the behest of developer and homebuilder lobby groups.

“It’s one of those weasel words that means different things to different people,” says Ceci. “From the development side I think they’d say it’s not an approved council direction so there’s still work that can be done to ameliorate the potential impact of the decision on the development industry.”

In fact, that’s exactly what it means, says Ald. Ric McIver, the polls’ frontrunner in the mayoral race. Despite months of work and meetings, the process felt rushed and all parties agreed more talk need to be done, he says. “Sometimes people try to finish up business before an election,” says McIver. “But as we all know, sometimes rushed jobs aren’t the best jobs.”

Axing subsidies for developers and using a free-market model is a possibility, says McIver. “The industry has always agreed with the city, that the party that benefits from new development should pay for the cost of the new development and that’s a principle that I believe in,” he says.

That principle could cost each homebuyer about $10,000, says the development industry, warning any additional cost to the industry will trickle down to consumers.

ENORMOUS DEBT

Currently, each Calgarian owes $768 of the city’s debt. That figure will pass the $1,000-mark later this year — exceeding the province’s debt-limit regulation and severely handicapping the city’s ability to borrow and catch up on much-needed infrastructure.

And according to recent polls the economy, transportation and infrastructure top the list of Calgarians’ concerns — all of which tie into the sprawl issue and who is going to pay for it, says Ceci.

“The solutions are more compact cities, density in the proper places,” he says. “It’s a focus on alternative modes of transportation like public transit, good cycling and walking infrastructure. All of those would drive less of a reliance on continuing to grow out.”

On average, each existing community is shelling out $120,000 to $240,000 annually to subsidize subdivisions, he says. And that money could be used to fund affordable housing, recreational facilities and improving transit, he adds.

While the industry touts the mantra of: “If you’re not growing you’re dying” it is, in fact, “fiscally swamping” the city, says Ceci. “I think that it would benefit Calgarians if there were broader discussions.”

The lack of broader discussion may, in part, be that controversial bridges and tunnels are simply a much easier sell during an election. “This is already a very complicated election,” says Lori Williams, a political scientist at Mount Royal University.

The image of the development industry as the backroom boogeyman is also losing its hold, says Williams. “The developers are seen publicly more and more as innovators and contributors to a vibrant, almost visionary, city,” she says.

Others aren’t entirely sold on this new image developers are cultivating or their foray into the election with their industry-focused website votecalgary.ca.

“I find it incredibly offensive,” says Grant Neufeld, activist and operator of the non-partisan website calgarydemocracy.ca. “All voices need to be at the table, but they are presenting themselves as the go-to place for election information — and that is simply not the case.”

Mayoral and aldermanic candidates have to fill out a survey in order to have their platforms presented on the developer website, says Neufeld. Without developer support, candidates know their odds of winning are slim, he adds.

“It’s not in their political interest to in any way speak out against the developers,” says Neufeld. “It would take a pretty intensive campaign with some serious alternative financial support to stand a chance of winning and still be able to speak out against the developers.”

Mayoral candidate Naheed Nenshi says everything he’s read indicates suburban development hasn’t been paying for itself, but yelling and screaming at each other isn’t the solution. “Let’s use our smartest people from the city and the industry and come up with the right number,” he says. “It ain’t that complicated.”
http://www.ffwdweekly.com/article/news-v...s-to-talk-about-subsidizing-sprawl-6361/

P.S. seems like some of our forumers might have already read this based on the comments section.
     
     
  #1684  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 2:28 PM
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Anyone hear McIver on X92.9 this morning?
     
     
  #1685  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 3:35 PM
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I seem to remember Nenshi declaring, early in the campaign process, that if Wayne Stewart ran for mayor, that he would drop out. Do I have the information wrong? If so, has anyone in the media asked Nenshi about it?

Don't get me wrong, I'm glad Nenshi didn't drop out, but I'm just curious about what happened there.
     
     
  #1686  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 3:54 PM
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That rumor might have stemmed from how campaign staff moved from Stewart to Nenshi, but this is the first time I have heard it. Perhaps it is just a new twist on the Nenshi betrayed Hehr by running rumor. No basis in fact either one.
     
     
  #1687  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 3:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir.Humphrey.Appleby View Post
That rumor might have stemmed from how campaign staff moved from Stewart to Nenshi, but this is the first time I have heard it. Perhaps it is just a new twist on the Nenshi betrayed Hehr by running rumor. No basis in fact either one.
No, this information was put out there by the media and here on the forum. It's months old...

By the way, what is the connection between Hehr and Nenshi? Hehr isn't saying anything, but Nenshi just took over his old campaign headquarters..is Hehr working for Nenshi now?
     
     
  #1688  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 4:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Aegis View Post
By the way, what is the connection between Hehr and Nenshi? Hehr isn't saying anything, but Nenshi just took over his old campaign headquarters..is Hehr working for Nenshi now?
My understanding is that they've known each other and have been friends for a long time. While Hehr didn't officially and publicly put his full support behind Nenshi, he did say that Nenshi has impressed him the most of the candidates. I believe he didn't publicly put everything behind Nenshi only as a matter of principal. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Naheed and Kent are indeed having discussions and that Kent is in the background fully supporting Naheed.
     
     
  #1689  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 4:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by O-tacular View Post
An interesting article from FFWD this week.



http://www.ffwdweekly.com/article/news-v...s-to-talk-about-subsidizing-sprawl-6361/

P.S. seems like some of our forumers might have already read this based on the comments section.

This could potentially turn into Calgary`s biggest weakness. If Calgary keeps growing so quickly and development keeps stretching further and further these debts are going to be brutal.
Why subsidize folks who feel like they need a 3000sq foot bungalow out in the burbs??

Drop the Damn subsidies already and VOTE FOR NENSHI!!! I hope everyone on the forum who prefers Nenshi actually goes out and vote for him come election day.
     
     
  #1690  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 4:51 PM
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An all out call to end subsidies isn't the end goal, there would be no east village development without them. It is just really hard to price the marginal cost to the city or 1 extra house.

If the neighborhoods being built were dense complete communities I wouldn't care less about subsidies - it benefits the community in the end.
     
     
  #1691  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 5:00 PM
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The subsidies just seem so lopsided in favor of the suburbs right now. Why not demand developers just pay for at least most of the infrastructure requirements for greenfield developments and have the city subsidize more infrastructure in the already developed communities to make them more attractive for residents, such as new parks, new sidewalks/boulevards, energy efficient developments, better transit options, housing subsidies for low income families etc.....


I think this would be much more adaptive to the current times than the current model as described in the articles i have read about the subject so far.
     
     
  #1692  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 5:13 PM
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I think many people, including informed people on the board forget how much more development fees are paid today compared to a decade ago. Sure, they can be tweaked around the edges, but how is building a new pool in a new neighborhood a subsidy while renovating an old one in the inner city an investment?

You know what the best way to get rid of the subsidies would be? Abandon the uni-city model! Not that I advocate for that due to the huge problems it causes wherever it is applied. Still, we use the collective will of government for a reason, and one is to help pay for things slowly over time instead up front, and to pay for things where there isn't an efficient way to distribute costs or benefits.

Think about if every office tower had a per square footage charge to pay for new LRT lines to the core, for their new workers? Or levy warehouses for bringing new workers into the Calgary economy when they set up? The temerity of it all, people wanting to grow our community! They should have to pay for that privileged!

A real world example - should Cross Iron Mills if it was just a few km south after paying for servicing, connections to the road network, etc, have been furthered levied on a one time basis to pay for future transit, recreation, etc? I think doing that causes a lot more Cross Iron Mills to be outside of the city.
     
     
  #1693  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 6:48 PM
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The city needs to force the development industry into following the plan-it model, in an un-neutered form as a stipulation of covering infrastructure costs. What would be the argument against, that they wouldn't be able to make payments on their money-beds?

Abandoning the uni-cty model or stopping growth is not the answer, obviously.
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  #1694  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 7:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sir.Humphrey.Appleby View Post
An all out call to end subsidies isn't the end goal, there would be no east village development without them. It is just really hard to price the marginal cost to the city or 1 extra house.

If the neighborhoods being built were dense complete communities I wouldn't care less about subsidies - it benefits the community in the end.
So why don't we calculate the marginal cost to the city of 5000 houses in a new community and divide it amongst all the houses? Would that work, or are there still complications?
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  #1695  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 7:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aegis View Post
No, this information was put out there by the media and here on the forum. It's months old...

By the way, what is the connection between Hehr and Nenshi? Hehr isn't saying anything, but Nenshi just took over his old campaign headquarters..is Hehr working for Nenshi now?
Nenshi and Hehr have close ties. Nenshi's campaign manager was Hehr's when he was elected as MLA.
     
     
  #1696  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 8:43 PM
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http://nutv.ca/live/mayoral-debate/?ref=nf

I'm not sure if this was posted already or not
     
     
  #1697  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 9:51 PM
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Originally Posted by fusili View Post
So why don't we calculate the marginal cost to the city of 5000 houses in a new community and divide it amongst all the houses? Would that work, or are there still complications?
Really complicated - how would you for example divide the cost for expanding to 4 car LRT amongst new houses. If we weren't growing, they wouldn't need to be expanded arguably. Should the next couple of condo towers that are in the catchment area for the Peace Bridge have a special levy to fund it? We need it because there are more foot and bike commuters. Think about how hard it is for airlines to make money, and how weird tickets prices are - assigning infrastructure costs to developments beyond absolute direct costs is many times harder, and faces the same problem in very large marginal costs for only select users.

Plus, why should the new house being added, pay taxes for both the old common infrastructure (which a fair portion of we still have city debt for that is paid out of common taxes) and their marginal cost on wider infrastructure. It is hard to switch modes midstream between solely paying marginal cost for your unit vs paying the social cost for your part of the system.

I am not arguing for there to be either no subsidy, or back to the way it was before - but the current fiscal framework already cut the unfunded infrastructure subsidy by three-quarters if my memory serves me. You can likely cut it by half again by upping density targets in new communities once more and making it much easier to infill.
     
     
  #1698  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 10:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LFRENCH View Post
http://nutv.ca/live/mayoral-debate/?ref=nf

I'm not sure if this was posted already or not
this oscar fech is hilarious!
     
     
  #1699  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 11:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LFRENCH View Post
http://nutv.ca/live/mayoral-debate/?ref=nf

I'm not sure if this was posted already or not
Thanks for posting. I watched the full debate. Oscar Fech was a riot!
     
     
  #1700  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2010, 11:47 PM
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Thanks for posting. I watched the full debate. Agreed, Oscar Fech is a riot!
Oscar is a fricking joke. He needs to stop listening to his fillings.
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