Quote:
Originally Posted by ssiguy
Kaboom! Looks like Canada's population Ponzi scheme economy has quickly come to an end. When compared to the same quarter last year, these figures couldn't be more different if they tried.
Thanks to Trudeau and his wild "post nationalist" immigration scheme, the country saw it's physical and social infrastructure collapse under the weight. Now things are reversing in quick order. This is why cities haven't been able to plan effectively for their future needs.........our population growth is 93% dependent on immigration and it's a political decision that can flip on a dime.
There use to be a general consensus between both the Liberals and Tories that immigration would be a very manageable 1% a year but, like everything else, Trudeau screwed that up and now we are heading into population decline as foreign students and TFWs visas expire and are not going to get renewed. This will accelerate under a PP gov't as he will quickly turf our bogus refugees out of the country and probably put a halt {or a major reduction} on family reunifications.
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I'm not going to defend the Trudeau government's record on immigration (or much about it, given that the man seems to be borderline delusional about his future these past few days), but credit where it's due: I'm sympathetic to the fact that the government juiced immigration based on good faith economic and demographic goals, and didn't reign things in quickly enough. But it is happening now, and it seems to be working as intended. To break down what's happened in the past few months where I live in Nova Scotia:
Year-over-year growth has fallen to the lowest level in a decade. But that's happening even as the province continues to experience positive interprovincial migration, and even though permanent immigration streams have been at record highs this year, following a previous record last year. (Q2 this year saw the highest quarterly immigration level ever, and Q3 wasn't much below that, and was 1,000 people above last Q3.)
The drop looks to be basically entirely down to a reduction in TFWs, and probably especially students, whose numbers were reduced this fall by an international enrolment cap. Inflows of non-permanent residents so far this year are down more than 7,000, and outflows up more than 5,000. So we're looking at abour 12,000 fewer people, all non-permanent residents. It's not likely to be a coincidence that vacancy rates in Halifax are now around 2%, after years stuck at 1%.
This is basically the best case scenario for slowing growth. The province continues to experience a strong inflow of skilled and educated newcomers who intend to stay long-term, while the in-and-out churn of temporary migrants eases dramatically.
I definitely acknowledge it would be much better if we hadn't had the strain of the past few years, followed by what looks like a big drop to a potentially stagnant couple of years. One of my concerns now is that developers will see vacancy rates shoot up, growth figures drop and rents flatline, and they'll shelve housing developments. That's exactly what we don't need--now is the time to catch up.
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