Canadian Airport Thread II

[Myst]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Top 10 largest Canada-US unserved markets in terms of PDEW (Passengers per day each way), as of Feb 2024

What was the source?

Is that average over a full year? YVR-FLL would look low if that is February only…

Not surprising those are all relatively long segments - shorter ones could be served with smaller aircraft.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by Justanothermember

Is the YYT-LGW flight subsidized?

Can now confirm yes, just not the actual amount. Courtesy of this coverage of our typical "crabs in a bucket" rural reaction:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/westjet-gatwick-1.7191751

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Myst

What was the source?

Is that average over a full year? YVR-FLL would look low if that is February only…

Not surprising those are all relatively long segments - shorter ones could be served with smaller aircraft.

Source is Cirium Diio. I’m subscribed to a newsletter and this particular info happened to be in it this week.

And yes, it’s the daily average over a year (in this case, year ending February 2024).

[ConundrumNL]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Can now confirm yes, just not the actual amount. Courtesy of this coverage of our typical "crabs in a bucket" rural reaction:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/westjet-gatwick-1.7191751

The standard 'I don't directly benefit, so it's a waste' sentiment. Are people actually allowed to post a positive comment on a CBC story, or is it against the rules?

I wish WJ would bring back the direct to YHZ. Went to NS earlier the week and flight options were limited, one had a several hour stopover in Montreal.

Imagine having travel all the way from St. John's to Montreal in order to reach Halifax.

[avi330]

Originally Posted by Myst

What was the source?

Is that average over a full year? YVR-FLL would look low if that is February only…

Not surprising those are all relatively long segments - shorter ones could be served with smaller aircraft.

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Source is Cirium Diio. I’m subscribed to a newsletter and this particular info happened to be in it this week.

And yes, it’s the daily average over a year (in this case, year ending February 2024).

Whats the name of the newsletter?

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Can now confirm yes, just not the actual amount. Courtesy of this coverage of our typical "crabs in a bucket" rural reaction:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/westjet-gatwick-1.7191751

Fitting analogy for Newfoundland.

It's hilarious because rural Newfoundland is probably one of the best-served rural regions of the country relative to its population. Multiple flights to YYZ, YUL, and YHZ among others from Gander and Deer Lake (Corner Brook).

But as soon as the townies get something because they spent a nickel or two (even though the airport is an independent authority), the baymen get up in arms.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by whatnext

So this is interesting but still murky. Who is Flair's senior lender whose affiliate bought 777 Partners' shares?

I suspect this is the new shareholder

I suspect the existing leases on the 737s that were negotiated at favourable rates to Flair/777 Partners during COVID/the MAX grounding are probably worth more at current market rates now.

Maybe they let Flair fly them for the Canadian summer peak, the yank them when down season hits.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by avi330

Whats the name of the newsletter?

Ailevon Pacific. It’s their weekly airline schedule update.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

Can now confirm yes, just not the actual amount. Courtesy of this coverage of our typical "crabs in a bucket" rural reaction:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/westjet-gatwick-1.7191751

We might not know the amount, but we seem to know the timeline of the subsidy.

The newest WestJet route, which flies three times weekly from May until October, will run for the next three years.

Let's hope the route will have matured by then and will be self sustainable.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Fitting analogy for Newfoundland.

It's hilarious because rural Newfoundland is probably one of the best-served rural regions of the country relative to its population. Multiple flights to YYZ, YUL, and YHZ among others from Gander and Deer Lake (Corner Brook).

But as soon as the townies get something because they spent a nickel or two (even though the airport is an independent authority), the baymen get up in arms.

We have, what, 8 decent airports? For 525K people.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

We have, what, 8 decent airports? For 525K people.

Well, the more widely dispersed and isolated the population base is, the greater the need for multiple airports. At a minimum, NL would require commercial airports in St. John's, Deer Lake, Goose Bay and Wabush. Not much you can do about Gander. It's a huge airport for historical reasons. It will carry on as is.

So, at a bare minimum, NL will always have at least five commercial airports, and multiple other fly-in bush pilot airstrips.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker

We have, what, 8 decent airports? For 525K people.

I'd list the 4 that have AC/AC Express service:

CFB Goose Bay
Gander Int'l
Deer Lake Regional
St. John's Int'l

Given that St. John's has nearly ~250k of that population in its catchment alone, the three other ones spread out among smaller communities do pretty well.

Gatwick seasonal seems about the best option for Newfoundland-Europe hoppers. It might not be Heathrow, but at least easyJet can get one most places on the continent affordably once you're across the pond.

[SignalHillHiker]

Originally Posted by thewave46

I'd list the 4 that have AC/AC Express service:

CFB Goose Bay
Gander Int'l
Deer Lake Regional
St. John's Int'l

Given that St. John's has nearly ~250k of that population in its catchment alone, the three other ones spread out among smaller communities do pretty well.

Gatwick seasonal seems about the best option for Newfoundland-Europe hoppers. It might not be Heathrow, but at least easyJet can get one most places on the continent affordably once you're across the pond.

Oh, absolutely. I genuinely could not care less where I land in Europe as long as the flight time isn't doubled by having to go to Toronto first.

That said, it's bigger than you think. I thought Dublin-Malaga was going to FEEL like St. John's-Stephenville - barely time to get in your seat and you're there. But it was still a decent flight, like going to Halifax or something.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

I assume this data doesn’t take into account ottawa folks leaking to YUL in their own vehicles? Time will tell about those last 3 you mentioned, except ATL. I truly think YOW-ATL will be a thing sooner rather than later with the PD-DL partnership that we all discovered a couple of weeks ago. Still no PR! Not sure what’s taking them so long to discuss it. Also, with YUL-SFO/LAX, seems like PD is open to the idea of less than daily.

Leakage would definitely not be included. Pre-pandemic YOW-LAX was more like 65 and YOW-SFO 63 PDEW. Nonstop routes would probably increase PDEWs by 80-100%.I remember when the old CanJet added weekly YOW-SRQ, it stimulated demand on the city pair by 480% just as an example of how demand for YOW-California should explode. I could see a carbon copy of YUL’s 4x LAX, 3x SFO to start, building to each having daily flights within 2 years.

YOW-LAS will almost certainly happen with PD too. YOW-PHX: I can see that happening seasonally twice weekly in winter to start…maybe a 5x LAS, 2x PHX given the distances are similar.

With the new DL interline, YOW-ATL suddenly becomes a possibility. What other city of 1.5 million isn’t connected to ATL? Now that YEG’s connected, YOW must be the only one.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Leakage would definitely not be included. Pre-pandemic YOW-LAX was more like 65 and YOW-SFO 63 PDEW.

If those are based on the StatsCan figures from 2017-2018, don’t forget that StatsCan only lists O&D between city pairs, not airports, so in the case of Ottawa-San Fran as an example, that would include SFO, SJC and OAK. In the case of Ottawa-Los Angeles, it includes LAX, ONT, LGB, BUR and SNA.

Scroll 2/3 of the way down in the following link.

https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/statistical-programs/document/2703_D3_T9_V1

The Diio O&D numbers I listed above are airport pairs, and that is the reason why they are lower than the StatsCan numbers.

[nname]

https://filecache.investorroom.com/mr5ircnw_aircanada/555/Q1_2024_Investor_Presentation.pdf

Looks like slide 6 have what AC currently flying and planned?

From YVR:
SGN, MNL, MEL, PEK
BOS, PHL(?), SLC, DFW.. and what that dot at the top? GEG? MSO? BTM? BZN? HLN?

I'll let you guys figure out the YYZ and YUL ones

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

If those are based on the StatsCan figures from 2017-2018, don’t forget that StatsCan only lists O&D between city pairs, not airports, so in the case of Ottawa-San Fran as an example, that would include SFO, SJC and OAK. In the case of Ottawa-Los Angeles, it includes LAX, ONT, LGB, BUR and SNA.

Scroll 2/3 of the way down in the following link.

https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/statistical-programs/document/2703_D3_T9_V1

The Diio O&D numbers I listed above are airport pairs, and that is the reason why they are lower than the StatsCan numbers.

For the routes listed, how do the US DoT O&D PDEW numbers look from 2019?


I personally think YOW-LA/San Fran numbers would be stimulated by at least 100% with nonstops. Now that PD have interlining with AS that sounds headed for a full codeshare, if timed correctly connecting traffic would be available at both ends of the routes.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by nname

https://filecache.investorroom.com/mr5ircnw_aircanada/555/Q1_2024_Investor_Presentation.pdf

Looks like slide 6 have what AC currently flying and planned?

From YVR:
SGN, MNL, MEL, PEK
BOS, PHL(?), SLC, DFW.. and what that dot at the top? GEG? MSO? BTM? BZN? HLN?

I'll let you guys figure out the YYZ and YUL ones

No YVR-AKL on that map? Weird. The other routes currently served are all there.

As for YYZ/YUL, it seems to be more or less the standard as well.

YUL-DSS/TUN/CAI (YUL-CAI was recently canceled), YYZ-ACC/LOS in Africa. (No South Africa it seems. It's been a few years that's the case, if I remember correctly.)

In Europe, I see IST, OSL, BER and OPO, most likely all from YYZ.

In the US, i see YUL-PDX as new. And either OAK or SJC to YYZ. The rest is just too much work.

Originally Posted by Dominion301

For the routes listed, how do the US DoT O&D PDEW numbers look from 2019?

No idea. I never check US DoT numbers. But i'm sure they will be similar.

[thenoflyzone]

It's worth mentioning as well,

AC is very good at adapting to market conditions. YUL-ICN and YUL-DEL were never on any investor day document, and yet, here they are. So just because it's not on there, doesn't mean the route will never happen. The reverse is also true. Just because it's on there as a potential route, doesn't mean it's a guarantee. How long have DSS, ACC and LOS been on there? At least 10 years if memory serves. Still nothing.

[Alexcaban]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

No YVR-AKL on that map? Weird. The other routes currently served are all there.

As for YYZ/YUL, it seems to be more or less the standard as well.

YUL-DSS/TUN/CAI (YUL-CAI was recently canceled), YYZ-ACC/LOS in Africa. (No South Africa it seems. It's been a few years that's the case, if I remember correctly.)

In Europe, I see IST, OSL, BER and OPO, most likely all from YYZ.

In the US, i see YUL-PDX as new. And either OAK or SJC to YYZ. The rest is just too much work.

No idea. I never check US DoT numbers. But i'm sure they will be similar.

I noticed YUL-MRS on there too.
I still think this map is pretty incomplete, the 321XLRs will definitely open up a lot of secondary Europe routes.