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Originally Posted by adamuptownsj
1. We're a ways out from the next election and I doubt any decisions are final. Allain and Turner both lack something- vested MLA pensions, which they are likely to get even with a PC minority being reelected. So I think they most likely stick around. Allain is probably burned out from municipal reform right now.
2. I am loathe to get too personally critical with politicians since I am not extremely anonymous, but Cardy is crazier than a shithouse rat! He thinks he's some saviour of 'the West,' openly calls himself a neoliberal, freaks out on Twitter about foreign policy constantly, and he must have a Postmedia hotline. They call him for a take every time Higgs sneezes. You think they'd call Gauvin or Holt or Coon or someone else relevant. Does he even run again? Where? For who? His options are Holt's home Fredericton South-Silverwood seat (I 100% think she's moving back there) or the anodyne Jeff Carr's Hanwell-New Maryland seat. Maybe he tries his luck 'running from the centre' against Atwin. Who knows?
3. I don't think Norton or Killen (or the at-large guys) would forfeit their council seats for a longshot against Williamson. The new SJ-SC voted 47-28 CPC-Liberal twice in a row, and that's with West Saint John voting more Liberal than normal for Wayne Long. Williamson is as secure as an East Coast Tory can hope to be, and he's DEFINITELY going for another term. I presume Liberals punt on all CPC incumbents except for Stewart, who they'll struggle to dislodge too. Unless they want a 5-5 delegation they HAVE to hold SJ-KV, and that's not even getting into Fredericton-Oromocto. It isn't out of reach for the opposition either. Conservatives have been within 4-5 points the last two cycles.
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1. Yes Williamson is safe as all can be in his riding. I know John personally and he is well liked here. Maybe if the Liberals ran a candidate who actually lives in the riding unlike 2021 they might do better but unlikely.
2. Provincially Fundy the Isles keeps pushing more and more into Saint John which if Anderson-Mason is to retire which I think is definitely possible could lead to a interesting race both in the PC primary and general.
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