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Originally Posted by mousquet
As probably everybody, I hear they'd rather stay in countries neighboring Ukraine, especially Poland because many of them are determined to get back to their country once the war is over.
Most refugees are women and kids who left their hubbies or dads who're still in Ukraine to fight. Brave people, but I'm hardly surprised. That's the reputation they're known by anyway.
Otherwise, don't expect too many of them in Northern Europe. A lot of Ukrainians would have some connections to Mediterranean Europe like Italy or Portugal, so more of them would be moving to these countries.
The French government is expecting something like 100k in our country at most. They won't rush to France because they want to work for a decent living and heard that it was hard for immigrants to find a job out here, which is not false, although it depends on their degrees / level of education.
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I doubt there will be a comeback. Since 2014, over 1 million Ukrainians moved to Russia, another 1 million to Europe, many to Poland, a country that traditionally exports people. There are already 6 million Ukrainians living outside Ukraine, and that's before Feb 24th.
The country is already very poor, neighbouring the much wealthier Western Europe, with an already well established diaspora. So it's quite easy for those refugees to stay away. We don't know how and when this was will be over, so perspectives are horrible. The US is estimating their GDP will shrink 35% in 2022 from an already very low base.
We'll probably see several Detroit-like scenes with massive depopulation with many buildings left to rot.
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Let's see how things developed. The number of refugees are decreasing for the past days, but the war is turning more violent, so it's hard to say how this refugee curve will behave. The UN was estimating up to 4 million Ukrainians would have left the country by the beginning of the crisis. Now, it seems this number will be reached before the first month of war. A tragedy. At least they're being welcomed in the host countries.
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