https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/...add-millions-of-new-residents-they-cant/
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B.C., with 5-million people today, will grow by 1.3-million by 2041. More than three-quarters of those new residents are expected to make their homes in the Lower Mainland, a.k.a. Greater Vancouver.
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The population of Greater Vancouver is 2.5 million. A 1 million increase represents a growth of 40%. This means that we will grow about 2% a year. Vancouver's housing goal (which its currently failing) was 85,000 new units over 10 years. However demolitions represent about 20% so this means if we followed this goal we'd gain 6,800 units annually. We have about 330,000 units in Vancouver. If we followed Stewart's 10 year plan's goal we'd gain 2.06% more housing annually, barely keeping up with immigration. This of course doesn't count phenomenons causing us to require more housing even discounting immigration, the increasing desire for people to live by themselves/away from families, the reduced size of housing (more people can fit in a house than a condo), AirBnB, longer lifespans, and international students/visitors. I'd say if we followed Stewart's housing goals, we'd barely tread water and keep things stable. But we're not, Council is blocking development and is chasing developers out of town. So expect the housing crisis to get worse by 2041 not better. Though greater Vancouver is more than just the city of Vancouver, so if the muncipalities build the housing Vancouver at a rate of faster than 2% maybe the problem will get better. Just Vancouver will shrink and soon become a suburb, probably of Burnaby or Surrey.
I really don't understand how people can expect housing prices or demand to go down under these conditions. Supply must catch up or we must change how many people we are putting here.
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