Quote:
Originally Posted by Taeolas
Gallant is really turning into a 1 term Premier; our 3rd in as many terms I think. The way things are going, unless the Tories come up with a solid contender, (and depending on what happens Federally), it could be an opening for the NDP or some other party to rise to leadership.
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I'd say the Liberals are banking on the electorate having short-term memory (as is usually the case) and are getting a lot of their house cleaning out of the way earlier (see:school closures). I'm still bracing for a rise in the HST next spring following this fall's federal election. Time will tell if the Liberals smarten up and actually begin governing with their heads or if their entire term in office will be as mistake-filled as the first 10 months.
As for the PCs, they'll need a new leader by this time next year. Having less than two years for a new leader to get prepared for an election is not enough time.
As for the NDP...we'll see what Cardy can do with another three years, if indeed he plans on sticking as leader for that long. If he does stay I would expect a similar result popular vote-wise but more centered in Saint John and Fredericton. I expect Cardy would do what Coon did last election....throw all his eggs in one (riding) basket. If he doesn't stay then who knows how much of an impact the federal NDP rise will have provincially. Will have to wait and see in November.
Speaking of Coon, sitting in the legislature isn't a bad thing and only helps to solidify the Green's standing as NB's third party. They received a higher vote total in two ridings in particular (Kent North and Memramcook-Tantramar) due solely to the opposition to fracking, and it remains to be seen if these numbers will hold for 2018.
Lastly, I expect the People's Alliance to continue to slowly build momentum in fifth. Similar to Coon, I expect Austin to be elected in his Grand Lake seat in 2018. Remember that he was very nearly elected in 2014.
It'll be interesting to see how the parties fair in the upcoming Carleton byelection. I can't imagine Cardy attempts to run in the PC-hotbed of Woodstock, but I wouldn't be overly surprised to see the People's Alliance throw a strong candidate in in the hopes of sweeping up some PC supporters who may feel disenfranchised post-Alward.
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