Quote:
Originally Posted by 1overcosc
Projecting the latest EKOS poll (which puts Ontario support at 36% NDP, 26% LPC, 26% CPC) onto individual ridings using the model at www.tooclosetocall.ca results in Ottawa-Vanier being an NDP gain, and Orleans and Ottawa West-Nepean being Liberal gains, with both Nepean and Kanata-Carleton being CPC holds.
Ottawa has plenty of competitive ridings this time... of the 8 ridings in the city, 6 of them (all but Carleton & Ottawa-Centre) are reasonably in play between at least two parties.
Ottawa West-Nepean is probably the biggest battleground as its tight. With the NDP surge, if it lasts, OWN will be a three way race. Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa South could be in play between the Liberals and the NDP if the NDP momentum continues to build. Nepean & Kanata-Carleton are both potential Liberal gains (Kanata-Carleton more so). Orleans is probably foregone as a Liberal gain but it will still be fought over. Ottawa Centre on the other hand is probably a certain NDP hold, same with Carleton and the CPC. |
An argument could be made it looks like an anti-gerrymander for the Conservatives in Ottawa...since their strongest support is "packed" into the Carleton riding...taking the strongest parts of 3 ridings for them.
I'd be curious to see how it translates provincially in 2018. Most likely, Jack MacLaren will be forced to run in the Carleton riding, even if it is not home turf. He would likely lose in the new Kanata-Carleton riding with the 2018 demographics (Kanata was virtually a draw in both 2011 and 2014 but he was helped by enormous wins in the rural parts - most of which are gone and Kanata will have likely grown even more by then), while he would bump out Randy Hillier in the Lanark-Frontenac riding (where he is entrenched). That would force Lisa MacLeod (if she doesn't go federal) into Nepean, which may not be so bad for her since that is where she is most familiar with, even if it is not as safe of a riding.
Kanata-Carleton becomes the open seat as a result.
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