Where you live – and whether you’ll vote
(Hamilton Spectator, Emma Reilly, Oct 27 2014)
If you live in Dundas, you're the most likely to head to the polls on Monday.
Ward 13 has the highest average voter turnout — 44.62 per cent — of any of the city's 15 wards, based on numbers from the 2006 and 2010 elections. (The City of Hamilton was not able to provide ward-by-ward voter turnout percentages for elections before 2006).
However, if you live in central Hamilton, you're less likely to vote than anyone else in the city. In Ward 3, the average number of people who cast their ballot in the past two elections was the lowest in the city: 28.8 per cent.
Previous elections have shown that certain demographics are more likely to vote. Those who are wealthy vote more than lower-income residents, while people who are older show up at the ballot box more than younger voters.
In Hamilton, the three wards with the highest voter turnout were Dundas, Stoney Creek (Ward 10) and the west Mountain (Ward 8).
Factors driving these figures differ in each ward, notes McMaster University political scientist Peter Graefe. For examples, Dundas has a high percentage of residents who are wealthy and, with the construction of several seniors' residences, the upper age range is also top-heavy.
Dundas — which had its own municipal council until it amalgamated with Hamilton in 2001 — also has a history of politically engaged citizenry.
"It had a pretty vigorous municipal life in the past," Graefe said. "There may be that kind of heritage there."
When it comes to Stoney Creek, Graefe points out that Larry Di Ianni's mayoral campaigns in both 2006 and 2010 may have affected the numbers. Di Ianni – who represented Stoney Creek as a councillor – likely had a strong base of voters in Stoney Creek and as a result, his team would have ensured those supporters made it to the ballot box.
The other end of the voting spectrum is a different story.
The Spectator's Code Red series, which examined how geography affects everything from health to education to voter turnout, found the three Hamilton wards with the highest rates of poverty – 2, 3 and 4 – are the same three wards with the lowest rates of voter turnout for the 2006 municipal election.
Ward 2, which encompasses the downtown, was an outlier in the 2010 election thanks to a wide-open race between 20 candidates. That pulled the average numbers above Flamborough's Ward 15.
Residents who rent or move frequently may not appear properly or at all on the city's voter list, which makes it more difficult for them to cast a ballot. Politicians also tend to give limited time to areas with lower voter turnout in order to focus their efforts on those more likely to support them at the polls — further alienating residents in low voter-turnout areas.
"We have a history of civic politics leaving people behind, not just in the context of the campaigns, but structurally. People have to work harder to go out and vote," Graefe said.
The good news is that overall, more Hamiltonians are going to the polls.
In 2010, voter turnout rose to 40.45 per cent of registered voters, compared to 37.3 per cent in the 2006 municipal election.
In 2003, total voter turnout was about 37.9 per cent.
Again, however, the lower-city turnout is somewhat distorted by the
depleted/
incomplete voter rolls. Measured against voting-age population, anemic lower-city turnout becomes even more so:
2010 Municipal Election
Ward 1: 8,454 votes = 40.7% of registered voters, 33.6% of voting-age population
Ward 2: 7,842 votes = 40.4% of registered voters, 23.4% of voting-age population
Ward 3: 7,329 votes = 31.0% of registered voters, 23.9% of voting-age population
Ward 4: 8,420 votes = 35.5% of registered voters, 23.8% of voting-age population
Ward 5: 10,642 votes = 41.3% of registered voters, 36.7% of voting-age population
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