Election 2010?

[markbarbera]

All this talk of an election is a bit of a moot point. It is becoming more apparent that the NDP will prop up this government, despite its criticism of the Liberals for doing so in the past.

If (big if) an election does take place, odds are it will not be a majority government of any flavour. If there was any chance of a Conservative majority Harper would have already dropped the writ. A Conservative majority would require gains in Ontario, Quebec and the maritimes, something they are not positioned to do. In fact, they are positioned to lose several of their seats east of the Ottawa river. If the Liberals were to form a majority, they would require gains in Quebec, Ontario and western Canada. While they are positioned to make gains in Ontario and Quebec, the Ontario race is too close to translate into significant gains for them, and BC could see a couple Liberal seats lost to a surging Green Party (if they get their campaign organized to focus on a few winnable seats instead of spread across the entire nation). Discontent in Sask and Man over the government's inaction in reponse to the worst drought in recent memory may lead to a couple of Liberal/NDP gains across the prairies, but not enough to tip them into majority territory.

Locally, not a whole lot would change, although Marsden and Charlton will both have tough fights to hold on. Christopherson's return is pretty much a sure thing. Sweet is toast.

A fall election would likely see the Conservatives and Liberals with a roughly equal allotment of seats in the House, with the balance of power held by the NDP and the Greens. BQ are the spoilers here. If anything is achieved by an election this fall, maybe it will finally turn the page on the idea of one-party majority rule, and lead Canadians to embrace the concept of coalition governing.