Well, in all the wasted ink and reporting on this, that is one figure no one has even bothered to determine. In fact I've only heard one news report that even casually acknowledged the amount is unclear.
It is just so much easier to scream the phrases "nearly $1 Billion dollars" and "on the hook" than to actually provide any analysis.
Of course, the new mayor hasn't done any better so they may just be following his lead.
Given that half the units haven't even been marketed yet, and over half of those currently being marketed are under contract and my own assessment of the real estate market (I do have some background upon which to assess), I would say we're talking about a project that will be marketable even if the downturn continues. The unknown variable is the length of time for marketing successful sales and associated carrying costs for units that don't immediately close. I will go on record at saying I expect the final amount will be astoundingly low (if there is any deficit at all), a mere fraction of the $885 million figure being flippantly tossed about.
If I were marketing this project, I would be thrilled to be able to present the remaining units just after the end of the Olympics themselves (which is the first they could transfer and become occupied anyway), with the neighborhood completed in top-notch condition. Imagine the new landscaping in bloom in the spring of 2010, the waterfront open and accessible (finally) to the neighborhood, streetcar line to Granville Island, as well as new grocers and retailers and community building opening up within the neighborhood itself. Development marketers dream of that situation, as most of the time they are trampling over mounds of dirt explaining how nice the green space will be when its finished, stumbling to produce the artist concept sketch as the potential buyers nervously peer at the heaps of dirt and gravel surrounding them.
On another aspect of this topic, I actually have to give the Vancouver Sun some credit for their editorial this morning. At least they openly questioned why the interest rate would go up if the lender intends on carrying no risk on the project loan anymore.
Last edited by johnjimbc; Jan 13, 2009 at 8:20 PM.
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