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Originally Posted by GoldenBoot
As long as the housing market in Austin (and Texas for that matter) is continuing to heat up - it will be some time (~2008-2010 before one might see a "slow-down"). The entire state of Texas is bucking the National housing trend due to the fact that housing here is so undervalued! Until it approaches and surpasses the “presumed” value, Texas will not see a “housing bust” like the rest of the country is viewing at the moment.
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I'd like to believe this, as I want to see tons of new hi-rise buildings downtown.
However, I think later this year will be the end of Austin's downtown condo boom. In other markets, the condo speculation cycle is rapidly collapsing. This is going to bring an end to it nationally, including Austin. So many people are about to be burned that speculation is going to dry-up everywhere, including in Austin. I am just extremely skeptical that real residents, true "end users" are going to show up in sufficient numbers to buy these places under construction and planned at prices that make the developers money. This has been a problem in other markets- speculators are buying and flipping these condos amongst themselves in a game of musical chairs. But who will actually _live_ in these places at these prices? "Real" residents just aren't showing up!
Let's face it- for the price of these smaller condos (~1000 sq ft or less), one can buy a 3000-4000 square foot house just outside Austin. While there's a lot of hype about downtown- which actually started during the late 90s tech boom- it's still very much a catch-22 situation. Downtown Austin is frankly pretty drab and empty, with only ~6000 residents. West Campus is 10x more an urban neighborhood than downtown right now. If however if it can reach a 'critical mass' of 20,000 residents then it may take on a sustainable life of its own that'll create its own demand in the decades ahead.
I am real anxious to see these planned projects turn ground, because they cannot stop at that point.
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