Quote:
Originally Posted by Marty_Mcfly
I do caution reading too much into the results of a singular poll, especially from a polling agency that has never really participated in election polling before (they do quarterly polls of the ATL provinces but it rarely coincides with the end of an election campaign, so their track record is basically unknown as it's untested).
My weighted average right now, where weights are given to the last 30 polls released (weights are determined by sample size and date of last day of survey) is:
LPC: 54.8%
CPC: 34.2%
NDP: 6.2%
Which seems to be pretty close to 338's regional average of
LPC: 55%
CPC: 34%
NDP: 7%
Depending on how that vote is distributed it could be anywhere between a Liberal sweep or the Conservatives picking up a couple of extra seats. I think the only thing we can certainly say with those numbers is that the NDP are likely non-competitive in Halifax and St. John's.
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Current polling does show many similarities to the 2015 election results across Canada but as far as Atlantic Canada I don't see a complete Liberal sweep. The reason is that the Liberals are the incumbents and there isn't the same drive to kick out the Conservatives that there was in 2015.
If it's a good election night for the LPC then the CPC will win only 2 or 3 seats in the region. If it's not a good night then the CPC will hold all of the 8 seats they currently have out of 32 in the region. I have a hard time seeing any current LPC seat going CPC unless there is some sort of local issue that I'm not aware of.
The two safest CPC seats are:
Tobique—Mactaquac (NB)
Fundy Royal (NB)
Current CPC ones that will likely go CPC if the party has a half-decent election night:
Saint John—St. Croix (NB)
Acadie—Annapolis (NS)
Cumberland—Colchester (NS)
South Shore—St. Margarets (NS)
Current CPC ones that will likely go CPC if the party has better than expected election night:
Miramichi—Grand Lake (NB)
Central Newfoundland (NL)
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