Quote:
Originally Posted by galleyfox
Areas with high immigration have high domestic outmigration by definition.
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Also, putting aside immigration, it would be nearly impossible for NY and CA to not have permanent negative domestic outmigration.
NY's geography is such that 75% of the population lives in a small, NIMBY, expensive, heavily urbanized area in the extreme south, surrounded by a bunch of other, generally cheaper and sprawlier states. The migration lifecycle usually goes from core to fringe, but the NY fringe is actually other states. The strong majority of the suburban NY MSA/CSA isn't in NYS, so the typical family moving to the burbs or further out for affordability/schools/whatever will count towards outmigration. So even forgetting about all the retirees in FL, Carolinas, all the AA migration South, etc. you'll have huge local outmigration regardless.
You see this in the outmigration stats for NJ, CT and PA. All have the same very high outmigration to FL, Carolinas, the same reverse Great Migration, the same PR migration to Central FL, etc. but they always have much lower outmigration share than NYS bc they're always receiving new suburbanites from NYS.
And CA's geography is such that the vast majority of population lives in a narrow, extremely expensive urbanized coastal strip. There will be some in-state outmigration inland, but a lot will go to other Western states, and you would need a complete economic collapse to make Coastal CA broadly affordable.
My aunt lives in a Coastal CA neighborhood of $5 million homes. She's a retired nurse. Many of her neighbors are retired teachers, civil servants and the like. A lot of their kids and grandkids are in AZ, or TX or CO. How in the hell are those homes ever supposed to be affordable to average American households? Those homes won't be under $1 million short of a zombie apocalypse.
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