Quote:
Originally Posted by chowhou
Not sure if you're aware, but that model is two weeks old right now. It's not factoring in the dissolution of BC United, it just looks that way because the model shows BC United getting wiped out, however they are still modeled as capturing 10% of the popular vote. If the BC Conservatives were to uptake that entire 10% (they won't), that could make a huge difference in swing ridings.
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"If," like you said. Note that Canada doesn't have a presidential system, and the popular vote doesn't determine who's in charge; the federal Liberals
lost the vote three years ago and yet
won five seats (not a 1:1 comparison, but the point still stands).
At last check, the NDP still have a roughly ten-point lead in the Lower Mainland where all the swing ridings are; "if" United's 10% were evenly spread across the whole province, they'd have to step on the gas, but it's not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WarrenC12
"Latest update: August 14, 2024"
This development will absolutely change the race.
Your BC NDP overconfidence is misplaced.
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See above.
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